Terex Corporation (TEX) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $7.7B

A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($15.49 to $50.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $26.01 – $74.58 · fair‑value band $15.49 – $50.79 · the $67.73 price screens above the $30.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Terex Corporation (TEX) currently trades at $67.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.91, implying the stock looks roughly 54.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Terex Corporation generated revenue of $5.9B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 41.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. Net debt stands at $2.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $15.49 (bear case) to $50.79 (bull case); at $67.73, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -54%, TEX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($38.25) versus Dividend Discount ($5.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Terex Corporation manufactures industrial equipment for materials processing machinery, waste and recycling solutions, mobile elevating work platforms, and equipment for the electric utility industry worldwide.

Full company description

Terex Corporation manufactures industrial equipment for materials processing machinery, waste and recycling solutions, mobile elevating work platforms, and equipment for the electric utility industry worldwide. The MP segment offers crushers, washing systems, screens, trommels, apron feeders, material handlers, pick and carry cranes, wood processing, biomass and recycling equipment, concrete mixer trucks and concrete pavers, conveyors, and replacement parts under the Terex, Powerscreen, Fuchs, EvoQuip, Canica, Cedarapids, CBI, Simplicity, Franna, Terex Ecotec, Finlay, ProAll, ZenRobotics, Terex Washing Systems, Terex MPS, Terex Jaques, Advance, Bid-Well, MDS, MARCO, MAGNA, Green-Tec, and Terex Recycling Systems brands. Its products are used in construction, infrastructure, and recycling projects; quarrying, mining, and material handling applications; maintenance applications to lift equipment or material; and landscaping and biomass production industries. The Aerials segment provides aerial work platform equipment, and telehandlers under the Terex and Genie brands; and portable material lifts, portable aerial work platforms, trailer-mounted articulating booms, self-propelled articulating and telescopic booms, and scissor lifts for construction and maintenance of industrial, commercial, institutional, and residential buildings and facilities, commercial operations, and tree trimming and various infrastructure projects. The ES segments offers refuse collection bodies, hydraulic cart lifters, automated carry cans, utility equipment, compaction, balers, recycling equipment, diggers derricks, transmission and distribution lines, construction and foundation drilling applications, insulated aerial devices, and cameras under the Heil, Marathon, 3rd Eye, Soft-Pak, Connected Collections, Parts Central, Curotto-Can, and Bayne Thinline brands; and waste hauler software solutions. The company was founded in 1933 and is based in Norwalk, Connecticut.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Terex Corporation reported revenue of $5.4B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $221M in FY2025, compounding +0.0%/yr from FY2021.

TEX screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.