Societatea Nationala de Transport Gaze Naturale Transgaz SA (TGN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · RO · Market cap 16.5B RON
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from 6.94 RON to 34.06 RON (+390.8%) since Aug 13, 2026.
A solid business, but screening 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (42.57 RON). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (23.16 RON to 42.57 RON) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10.21 RON – 95.00 RON · fair‑value band 23.16 RON – 42.57 RON · the 91.10 RON price screens above the 34.06 RON fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Societatea Nationala de Transport Gaze Naturale Transgaz SA (TGN) currently trades at 91.10 RON, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 34.06 RON, implying the stock looks roughly 62.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Societatea Nationala de Transport Gaze Naturale Transgaz SA generated revenue of 4.2B RON at a net margin of 17.5%. Revenue declined 16.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.6%. Net debt stands at 2.7B RON. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 23.16 RON (bear case) to 42.57 RON (bull case); at 91.10 RON, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 174% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -63%, TGN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (52.02 RON) versus Dividend Discount (5.65 RON). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of natural gas transmission systems in Romania and the Republic of Moldova. The company is also involved in the maintenance and operation of the national gas transmission system; natural gas dispatching; and research and design activities in natural gas transmission.
Full company description
S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of natural gas transmission systems in Romania and the Republic of Moldova. The company is also involved in the maintenance and operation of the national gas transmission system; natural gas dispatching; and research and design activities in natural gas transmission. In addition, the company provides commercial balancing; contracting natural gas transmission; dispatching and technological regimes; measurement and monitoring of gas quality; and gas odorization and international gas transmission services. S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Medias, Romania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Societatea Nationala de Transport Gaze Naturale Transgaz SA reported revenue of 4.3B RON in FY2024 versus 3.1B RON in FY2020, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was 404M RON in FY2024, compounding +25.1%/yr from FY2020.
TGN screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €28.94 | €31.58 | +9% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $169.59 | $85.67 | -49% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $42.50 | $28.59 | -33% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €47.45 | €48.32 | +2% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$6.76 | HK$4.79 | -29% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹177.95 | ₹130.21 | -27% |
| Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL | ₹654.05 | ₹101.36 | -85% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥17.32 | ¥25.71 | +48% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$47.16 | HK$107.98 | +129% |
| China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 | ¥7.26 | ¥7.37 | +2% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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