Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd stock $40.07, price $49.95, that is 19.8% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.85 – $65.00 · fair‑value band $23.91 – $55.82 · the $49.95 price screens above the $40.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of carbon-related products and services in Japan.
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It offers graphite electrodes for use in electric furnaces, such as direct current, alternating current, and refining furnaces; and carbon black, including SEAST, TOKABLACK, Aqua Black, and Thermax black varieties, which are used to reinforce the rubber in tires, as well as used as a black pigment in various black-colored products.
The company provides fine carbon products comprising special graphite products that include isotropic graphite G/HK series, extruded graphite, SiC coated carbon, C/C composite, glassy carbon, solid SiC, carbon brushes, and resin-impregnated graphite products, as well as furnace materials for silicon semiconductor, solar cell manufacturing, and other applications; and industrial furnaces and related products, which comprise silicon carbide heating elements, resistors, recryte SiC structural materials, and industrial furnaces for heat treatment of ceramics, electronic components, metals, glass, and others.
In addition, it offers carbon and graphite products and solutions for various smelting applications, consisting of cathodes, furnace linings, and carbon electrodes; and friction materials, including sintered metal friction, paper friction, sliding, resin, woven, and soft mold materials to regulate power transmission in industrial and construction machinery, as well as for use in brake and clutch parts of vehicles, such as motorbikes and trains.
Further, the company provides anode materials for secondary lithium-ion batteries that are used in smartphones and electric cars. The company was formerly known as Tokai Electrode Mfg. Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. in 1975.
Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) currently trades at $49.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.07, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $44.66 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $49.95 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $15.22, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.91 (bear) to $55.82 (bull), the price of $49.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥339B in FY2025 versus ¥259B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥21.1B in FY2025, compounding +6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.6B Mid · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) $2.29 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −20%, TKCBY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.91Fair Value $40.07Bull$55.82
Price $49.95 · Downside -19.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.96 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.5% vs 23.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.3% a year for the price and +7.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Fine carbon products for semiconductor and AI demand form the main strength, yet heavy reliance on cyclical carbon black tied to tire and automotive markets remains the key weakness.
Main risk: Cyclical demand swings in the tire and automotive markets could cut volumes and margins in the carbon black segment that dominates overall sales.
Tokai Carbon's fine carbon segment targets semiconductor and electronics demand with products like SiC rings, where sales volumes are set to hit a record in 2026 amid memory market recovery and AI-driven needs. Its largest carbon black business stays linked to the more cyclical tire and automotive markets. Will semiconductor growth outweigh the scale and stability of the traditional segments?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−19.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.23× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.9× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKCBY
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.07 versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of $49.95, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKCBY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is $40.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 21, 2026): $49.95.
What is the quality score of TKCBY?
Tokai Carbon Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.07 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.91, optimistic scenario $55.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.07, about 20% lower versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of $49.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.91, optimistic scenario $55.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
Tokai Carbon Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥339B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Tokai Carbon Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.75% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Tokai Carbon Co Ltd has a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2017. The payout ratio is 33.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.21 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokai Carbon Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKCBY use?
Our models discount Tokai Carbon Co Ltd at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokai Carbon Co Ltd that is +16.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tokai Carbon Co Ltd grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +16.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (+16.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.72 %: that much free cash flow Tokai Carbon Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokai Carbon Co Ltd it is $40.07 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $49.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TKCBY trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.95, fair value $40.07, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKCBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.07). For Tokai Carbon Co Ltd the two are $9.88 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Tokai Carbon Co Ltd at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $49.95; our models calculate a fair value of $40.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKCBY?
Our models span a range for Tokai Carbon Co Ltd: cautious scenario $23.91, base $40.07, optimistic $55.82 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $49.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKCBY?
Tokai Carbon Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $49.95, calculated fair value $40.07 (−20%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKCBY calculated?
We run Tokai Carbon Co Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $40.07 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Tokai Carbon Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 21, 2026 and stands at $49.95. Our model-based fair value is $40.07, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokai Carbon Co Ltd ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($23.91 to $55.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokai Carbon Co Ltd grew +26.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.0 %, EBIT margin +10.8 %, tax rate +4.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The market capitalisation of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is 1.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
Earnings per share at Tokai Carbon Co Ltd are $2.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The dividend yield of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is 1.8% (payout 38.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The net margin of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
The operating margin of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
Revenue at Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is growing +18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY)?
Earnings per share at Tokai Carbon Co Ltd are growing +5.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tokai Carbon Co Ltd (TKCBY) carry?
The net debt of Tokai Carbon Co Ltd is ¥127B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026