Tokai Carbon Co (TKCBY) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $2.5B

A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• Our model range runs from $29.84 (bear) to $51.96 (bull), base $40.06. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 55/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.84 – $64.94 · fair‑value band $29.84 – $51.96 · the $47.28 price screens above the $40.06 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Tokai Carbon Co (TKCBY) currently trades at $47.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.06, implying the stock looks roughly 15.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Tokai Carbon Co generated revenue of $324B at a net margin of 5.8%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.7%. Net debt stands at $127B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $29.84 (bear case) to $51.96 (bull case); at $47.28, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -15%, TKCBY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($42.90) versus Economic Profit ($19.31). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of carbon-related products and services in Japan. It offers graphite electrodes for use in electric furnaces, such as direct current, alternating current, and refining furnaces; and carbon black, including SEAST, TOKABLACK, Aqua Black, and Thermax black varieties, which are used to reinforce the …

Full company description

Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of carbon-related products and services in Japan. It offers graphite electrodes for use in electric furnaces, such as direct current, alternating current, and refining furnaces; and carbon black, including SEAST, TOKABLACK, Aqua Black, and Thermax black varieties, which are used to reinforce the rubber in tires, as well as used as a black pigment in various black-colored products. The company provides fine carbon products comprising special graphite products that include isotropic graphite G/HK series, extruded graphite, SiC coated carbon, C/C composite, glassy carbon, solid SiC, carbon brushes, and resin-impregnated graphite products, as well as furnace materials for silicon semiconductor, solar cell manufacturing, and other applications; and industrial furnaces and related products, which comprise silicon carbide heating elements, resistors, recryte SiC structural materials, and industrial furnaces for heat treatment of ceramics, electronic components, metals, glass, and others. In addition, it offers carbon and graphite products and solutions for various smelting applications, consisting of cathodes, furnace linings, and carbon electrodes; and friction materials, including sintered metal friction, paper friction, sliding, resin, woven, and soft mold materials to regulate power transmission in industrial and construction machinery, as well as for use in brake and clutch parts of vehicles, such as motorbikes and trains. Further, the company provides anode materials for secondary lithium-ion batteries that are used in smartphones and electric cars. The company was formerly known as Tokai Electrode Mfg. Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. in 1975. Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tokai Carbon Co reported revenue of $339B in FY2025 versus $259B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $21.1B in FY2025, compounding +6.9%/yr from FY2021.

TKCBY screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.