TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TKMS AG & Co KGaA stock €84.26, price €76.60, upside +10.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
TKMS AG & Co KGaA, together with its subsidiaries, provides maritime technologies and solutions in Germany, Norway, Brazil, Israel, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Submarines, Surface Vessels, and Atlas Electronics.
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The company designs, procures, and manufactures non-nuclear and conventional submarines, corvettes, frigates, and support ships, as well as unmanned, surface, special offshore patrol, and research vessels.
It also offers compact sonar underwater and integrated sensor underwater system; hull-mounted minehunting sonar, integrated mine counter measures system, hybrid autonomous underwater vehicle system, and identification and disposal system; modular ASW combat suite, anti-torpedo torpedo, variable depth and passive towed array sonars, and active hull-mounted sonar system; heavyweight torpedo; and communication systems.
In addition, the company provides various services, including trainer system, virtual ship and flight deck officer simulator, virtual ship training and information system, remote maintenance system, integrated logistic support, and in-service support, as well as artificial intelligence and data analysis.
It serves the navies of North Atlantic Treaty Organization, non-NATO allies, and strategic partner nations. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Kiel, Germany. TKMS AG & Co KGaA operates as a subsidiary of thyssenkrupp AG.
Stock analysis
TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS) currently trades at €76.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €84.26, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €244.99 per share, and 9 of the 21 models we run sit above the €76.60 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €31.12, and 12 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €72.90 (bear) to €95.60 (bull), the price of €76.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TKMS AG & Co KGaA reported revenue of €2.5B in FY2025 versus €1.7B in FY2022, a compound +15.4%/yr. Reported net income was €123M in FY2025, compounding +125.0%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap €4.9B Mid · P/E ratio 59.8 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) €1.28 · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5% (4-year average) · Operating margin 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 10%, TKMS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€72.90Fair Value €84.26Bull€95.60
Price €76.60 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.11 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.4%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+86.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+86.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%
2025 sits 105% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.4% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Integrated provider of submarines, surface vessels and sensors with locked-in long-term MEKO frigate production forms the main strength, while complex multi-year offset packages for international bids represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Past technology transfers to South Korea and Turkey have enabled those nations to emerge as competitors in the international submarine export market, which could reduce TKMS market share and put pressure on prices for future bids.
Bull case: By building on its AI integration and autonomous systems expertise TKMS could differentiate its high-end platforms and retain leadership even as new entrants appear in export markets.
Bear case: If South Korean and Turkish yards win more international submarine contracts enabled by earlier transfers TKMS could face slower order growth and sustained margin pressure on complex multi-year programmes.
Recent approval of four more MEKO frigates expands the German program to eight ships and locks in long-term series production at scale. This builds on TKMS's position as an integrated provider of submarines, surface vessels and sensors, yet international bids like Canada's demand complex multi-year investment packages across sectors. Will the added production visibility lift margins faster than the coordination of these offsets adds complexity?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)59.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.32× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TKMS AG & Co KGaA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKMS
Frequently asked questions
Is TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €84.26 versus a price of €76.60, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TKMS?
Our model-based fair value for TKMS AG & Co KGaA is €84.26 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €76.60.
What is the quality score of TKMS?
TKMS AG & Co KGaA has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €84.26 (as of Nov 13, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario €72.90, optimistic scenario €95.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TKMS AG & Co KGaA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €84.26, about +10% upside versus a price of €76.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €72.90, optimistic scenario €95.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
TKMS AG & Co KGaA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TKMS AG & Co KGaA would have to grow free cash flow by -22.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +15.4 % per year. As of Nov 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TKMS use?
Our models discount TKMS AG & Co KGaA at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TKMS AG & Co KGaA that is -22.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at TKMS AG & Co KGaA grew +15.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -22.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TKMS AG & Co KGaA (-22.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.00 %: that much free cash flow TKMS AG & Co KGaA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TKMS AG & Co KGaA it is €84.26 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of €76.60. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is TKMS AG & Co KGaA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, TKMS trades below its calculated fair value: price €76.60, fair value €84.26, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€76.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€84.26). For TKMS AG & Co KGaA the two are €7.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TKMS AG & Co KGaA worth?
The market values TKMS AG & Co KGaA at about €4.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is €76.60; our models calculate a fair value of €84.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKMS?
Our models span a range for TKMS AG & Co KGaA: cautious scenario €72.90, base €84.26, optimistic €95.60 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price €76.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKMS?
TKMS AG & Co KGaA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.8 (as of Nov 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €84.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.3, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 18.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for TKMS AG & Co KGaA (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity 6.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKMS from its 52-week high?
TKMS AG & Co KGaA trades at €76.60, about 26% below its 52-week high of €104.00 and 33% above the low of €57.55 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €84.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TKMS AG & Co KGaA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TKMS AG & Co KGaA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price €76.60, calculated fair value €84.26 (+10%), Quality Score 65/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKMS calculated?
We run TKMS AG & Co KGaA through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €84.26 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. TKMS AG & Co KGaA currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was €76.60. Our model-based fair value is €84.26, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TKMS AG & Co KGaA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of TKMS AG & Co KGaA
How large is the market capitalisation of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
The market capitalisation of TKMS AG & Co KGaA is €4.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TKMS AG & Co KGaA is 2.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
Earnings per share at TKMS AG & Co KGaA are €1.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
The net margin of TKMS AG & Co KGaA is 3.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TKMS AG & Co KGaA is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TKMS AG & Co KGaA is 1.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
The operating margin of TKMS AG & Co KGaA is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
Revenue at TKMS AG & Co KGaA is growing +36.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS)?
Earnings per share at TKMS AG & Co KGaA are growing −13.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does TKMS AG & Co KGaA (TKMS) hold?
TKMS AG & Co KGaA holds more cash than debt, €2.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 13, 2026