tonies SE (TNIEF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.8B
tonies SE
TNIEF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −0.1% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $6.48 – $14.53 · fair‑value band $1.61 – $2.68 · the $13.01 price screens above the $2.30 fair value. As of Jul 21, 2026.
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tonies SE (TNIEF) currently trades at $13.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.30, implying the stock looks roughly 82.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, tonies SE generated revenue of $630M at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 35.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $51.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.61 (bear case) to $2.68 (bull case); at $13.01, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside, at -82%, TNIEF screens richer than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
tonies SE, through its subsidiaries, develops, produces, and distributes digital, cloud based, and interactive audio platform and entertainment system for children in Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and internationally. It provides Toniebox, a speaker box that enables children to listen to stories and music, as well as various figurines under the Tonies brand name. The company also offers accessories and digital products, such as headphones, transport solutions, and decoration products. It distributes its products through various online and offline distribution channels, including brick-and-mortar retail partner stores, retail partner online channels, its own online shop, and Amazon marketplace. The company was formerly known as 468 SPAC I SE. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
tonies SE reported revenue of $630M in FY2025 versus $188M in FY2021, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was $13.1M in FY2025.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.