Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.69 TRY – 345.00 TRY · fair‑value band 169.52 TRY – 303.36 TRY · the 284.25 TRY price screens above the 229.12 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi engages in manufacturing, exporting, and selling passenger carsand light commercial vehicles in Turkey. It also produces various automotive spare parts, as well as trades in automobile and spare parts; and provides consumer financing and insurance services.
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Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi engages in manufacturing, exporting, and selling passenger carsand light commercial vehicles in Turkey. It also produces various automotive spare parts, as well as trades in automobile and spare parts; and provides consumer financing and insurance services. The company offers its products under the Peugeout, Citroen, Opel, Fiat, Jeep, Alfa Romeo, DS, Maserati, Ferrari, and Transit brands. It also exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO) currently trades at 284.25 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 229.12 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 24.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 545.23 TRY per share, and 6 of the 17 models we run sit above the 284.25 TRY price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 62.45 TRY, and 11 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 169.52 TRY (bear) to 303.36 TRY (bull), the price of 284.25 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS reported revenue of 332B TRL in FY2025 versus 30.5B TRL in FY2021, a compound +81.6%/yr. Reported net income was 8.4B TRL in FY2025, compounding +26.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 142B TRY (≈ $2.9B) · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) 23.05 TRY · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 22.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −19%, TOASO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 169.52 TRYFair Value 229.12 TRYBull 303.36 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.16 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+96.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+70.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.1%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+43.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 2%
Compare Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 113 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth33% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOASO
Frequently asked questions
Is Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 229.12 TRY versus a price of 284.25 TRY, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOASO?
Our model-based fair value for Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 229.12 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 284.25 TRY.
What is the quality score of TOASO?
Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 229.12 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario 169.52 TRY, optimistic scenario 303.36 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 229.12 TRY, about −19% upside versus a price of 284.25 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 169.52 TRY, optimistic scenario 303.36 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 431B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS pay a dividend?
Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS it is 229.12 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 284.25 TRY. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, TOASO trades above its calculated fair value: price 284.25 TRY, fair value 229.12 TRY, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOASO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (284.25 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (229.12 TRY). For Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS the two are 55.13 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS worth?
The market values Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS at about 142B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 284.25 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 229.12 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOASO?
Our models span a range for Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS: cautious scenario 169.52 TRY, base 229.12 TRY, optimistic 303.36 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 284.25 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOASO?
Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 229.12 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.3, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TOASO?
The PEG ratio of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 1.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 22.7%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOASO from its 52-week high?
Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS trades at 284.25 TRY, about 21% below its 52-week high of 358.25 TRY and 39% above the low of 204.88 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 229.12 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 284.25 TRY, calculated fair value 229.12 TRY (−19%), Quality Score 45/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOASO calculated?
We run Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 229.12 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
The closing price on Sep 15, 2026 was 284.25 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 229.12 TRY, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
The market capitalisation of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 142B TRY (≈ $2.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 0.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
Earnings per share at Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS are 23.05 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
The dividend yield of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 7.0% (payout 86.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
The net margin of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 2.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 16.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
The operating margin of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 1.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
Revenue at Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is growing +32.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +70.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO)?
Earnings per share at Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS are growing +39.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO) generate?
The free cash flow of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is −6.1B TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS (TOASO) carry?
The net debt of Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS is 33.9B TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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