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Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi (TOASO) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · TR · Market cap 136B TRY

TT Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi TOASO · IS
Price272.50 TRY
Fair Value284.03 TRY
Upside+4.2%
Quality49/100
Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 3.0% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
7.68% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/14)
Narrow moat 38/100
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Evidence: High Range 213.03 TRY – 355.04 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 2, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated today

Share price −10.7% over the past month.

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from 213.03 TRY (bear) to 355.04 TRY (bull), base 284.03 TRY. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 49/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

345.00 TRY 19.82 TRY Fair Value 284.03 TRY Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 19.82 TRY – 345.00 TRY · fair‑value band 213.03 TRY – 355.04 TRY · the 272.50 TRY price screens below the 284.03 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi (TOASO) currently trades at 272.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 284.03 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 4.2% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi generated revenue of 431B TRY at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 32.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.7%. Net debt stands at 33.9B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 213.03 TRY (bear case) to 355.04 TRY (bull case); at 272.50 TRY, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 4%, TOASO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 117.08 TRY 141.45 TRY 262.47 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 48.47 TRY 62.45 TRY 74.68 TRY 72
Gordon GGM 131.03 TRY 272.45 TRY 432.21 TRY 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 187.84 TRY 472.65 TRY 1,071 TRY 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 113.61 TRY 792.32 TRY 1,112 TRY 54
Lynch FV 291.57 TRY 416.53 TRY 541.49 TRY 50
PEG = 1.0 291.57 TRY 416.53 TRY 541.49 TRY 46
EPV 48.47 TRY 62.45 TRY 74.68 TRY 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 131.03 TRY 272.45 TRY 432.21 TRY 70
DDM Multi-Stage 131.03 TRY 229.73 TRY 285.94 TRY 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 250.62 TRY 334.16 TRY 417.70 TRY 63
P/S Multiple 213.03 TRY 284.03 TRY 355.04 TRY 58
P/B Multiple 213.03 TRY 284.03 TRY 355.04 TRY 55
EV/EBIT 96.70 TRY 140.74 TRY 184.78 TRY 53
EV/EBITDA 205.88 TRY 286.31 TRY 366.74 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 53.64 TRY 91.81 TRY 129.97 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 60.03 TRY 80.44 TRY 120.06 TRY 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 117.08 TRY 141.45 TRY 262.47 TRY 76
ROIC Compounder 48.47 TRY 62.45 TRY 74.68 TRY 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 367.64 TRY 525.20 TRY 682.76 TRY 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (525.20 TRY) versus Economic Profit (62.45 TRY). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 431B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +32.8%
Net margin 3.0%
Return on equity 22.7%
Free cash flow −6.1B TRY FY2025
P/E ratio 11.8
More key figures
Operating margin 1.0%
EPS (TTM) 23.05 TRY
Dividend yield 7.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +3,962%
Net debt 33.9B TRY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 48
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 32
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi engages in manufacturing, exporting, and selling passenger carsand light commercial vehicles in Turkey. It also produces various automotive spare parts, as well as trades in automobile and spare parts; and provides consumer financing and insurance services.

Full company description

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi engages in manufacturing, exporting, and selling passenger carsand light commercial vehicles in Turkey. It also produces various automotive spare parts, as well as trades in automobile and spare parts; and provides consumer financing and insurance services. The company offers its products under the Peugeout, Citroen, Opel, Fiat, Jeep, Alfa Romeo, DS, Maserati, Ferrari, and Transit brands. It also exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi reported revenue of 332B TRL in FY2025 versus 30.5B TRL in FY2021, a compound +81.6%/yr. Reported net income was 8.4B TRL in FY2025, compounding +26.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
332B TRY
Latest YoY
+96.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+70.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+69.1%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
−25.4%
Revenue +81.6%/yr
FY21 30.5B TRL
FY22 66.8B TRL
FY23 188B TRL
FY24 169B TRL
FY25 332B TRL
Net income +26.3%/yr
FY21 3.3B TRL
FY22 8.6B TRL
FY23 21.8B TRL
FY24 6.8B TRL
FY25 8.4B TRL

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOASO

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 125 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Above median
Fair Value upside +4% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 33% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 7.7% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.62× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.27× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.32× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 16.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.03× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 39 / 22
FUTURE 100 / 33
PAST 91 / 15
HEALTH 69 / 94
DIVIDEND 100 / 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $179.76 $224.63 +25%
BYD Company 81211 HK$67.90 HK$42.60 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 425,000 KRW 616,918 KRW +45%
General Motors Company GM $77.72 $56.93 -27%
Ferrari N.V RACE $376.64 $228.05 -39%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N 1,909 MXN 2,944 MXN +54%
Ford Motor Company F C$11.86 C$4.00 -66%
Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ C$20.44 C$35.15 +72%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,191 CZK +235%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,803 ₹8,236 -40%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi (TOASO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 284.03 TRY versus a price of 272.50 TRY, about +4% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TOASO?
Our model-based fair value for Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi is 284.03 TRY (as of Aug 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 272.50 TRY.
What is the quality score of TOASO?
Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi has a Quality Score of 49/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi (TOASO)?
Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 431B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TOASO?
The net profit margin of Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi is about 3.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi pay a dividend?
Tofas Türk Otomobil Fabrikasi Anonim Sirketi currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.68% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 2, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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