Tokmanni Group (TOKMAN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · FI · Market cap €416M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €10.57 to €10.62 (+0.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −2.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 59% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€7.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (€7.96 to €17.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.22 – €20.58 · fair‑value band €7.96 – €17.07 · the €6.70 price screens below the €10.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Tokmanni Group (TOKMAN) currently trades at €6.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.62, implying the stock looks roughly 58.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tokmanni Group generated revenue of €1.8B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. Net debt stands at €887M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.96 (bear case) to €17.07 (bull case); at €6.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at 59%, TOKMAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€19.75) versus Asset-Based (€3.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tokmanni Group Oyj operates as a variety discount retailer in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark. It provides beauty care and cleaning, health and well-being, and cosmetics products; laundry and clothing care, clear-out, and home washing, cleaning, and storage products, as well as toilet paper, kitchen paper, and handkerchiefs; shoes for women, men, and children; …
Full company description
Tokmanni Group Oyj operates as a variety discount retailer in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark. It provides beauty care and cleaning, health and well-being, and cosmetics products; laundry and clothing care, clear-out, and home washing, cleaning, and storage products, as well as toilet paper, kitchen paper, and handkerchiefs; shoes for women, men, and children; clothing and accessories for women, men, and children; wallets, training bags, backpacks, and rain gears; and reflectors, including reflective strips, hanging reflectors, and reflective vests and harnesses. The company also offers home decoration products, such as interior furniture, minimization, soft furnishings, bed linen, and bathroom and sauna; dishes and cutlery, food preparation, kitchen textiles, and kitchen papers and supplies; crafts, craft supplies, drawing tools, stationery, office supplies, and books and paperbacks; and party supplies, including cake candles, balloons, party wear and accessories, party decorations and tableware, party games, and cards and packaging. In addition, it provides toys and children's items; food products, such as sweets and chewing gums, chips, snacks, nuts, Tex-Mex, dry food ingredients, soups and sauces, seasoning and sweetening, drinks, children's food and drink, pastas, rice, flours, biscuits, rusks, rice cakes, cereals, muesli, flakes, preserves, jams, and marmalades; and home renovation products comprising tools, lamps, hardware and HVAC, construction and workwear, and solar panels and accessories. Further, the company offers car accessories, automotive chemicals and oils, and car wash products; leisure products; domestic appliances, entertainment electronics, information technology and gaming, phones and tablets, health and wellness equipment, and batteries; gift cards; and yard and garden products. Tokmanni Group Oyj was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Mäntsälä, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tokmanni Group reported revenue of €1.7B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was €36.3M in FY2025, compounding −17.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Discount Stores · 25 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart Inc WMT | $113.90 | $48.65 | -57% |
| Costco Wholesale Corporation COST | $916.25 | $383.51 | -58% |
| Target Corporation TGT | $139.60 | $118.22 | -15% |
| Wal-Mart de México, S.A. WALMEX | 49.49 MXN | 60.59 MXN | +22% |
| Dollarama Inc DOL | C$188.95 | C$92.38 | -51% |
| Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART | ₹4,081 | ₹1,066 | -74% |
| Dollar General Corporation DG | $125.75 | $116.55 | -7% |
| Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR | $124.91 | $125.92 | +1% |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ | $90.24 | $80.99 | -10% |
| Pepco Group PCO | 40.64 PLN | 54.90 PLN | +35% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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