Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tokmanni Group Oyj €10.62, price €6.98, upside +52.3%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.22 – €20.58 · fair‑value band €7.96 – €17.07 · the €6.98 price screens below the €10.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Tokmanni Group Oyj operates as a variety discount retailer in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark.
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Tokmanni Group Oyj operates as a variety discount retailer in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark. It provides beauty care and cleaning, health and well-being, and cosmetics products; laundry and clothing care, clear-out, and home washing, cleaning, and storage products, as well as toilet paper, kitchen paper, and handkerchiefs; shoes for women, men, and children; clothing and accessories for women, men, and children; wallets, training bags, backpacks, and rain gears; and reflectors, including reflective strips, hanging reflectors, and reflective vests and harnesses. The company also offers home decoration products, such as interior furniture, minimization, soft furnishings, bed linen, and bathroom and sauna; dishes and cutlery, food preparation, kitchen textiles, and kitchen papers and supplies; crafts, craft supplies, drawing tools, stationery, office supplies, and books and paperbacks; and party supplies, including cake candles, balloons, party wear and accessories, party decorations and tableware, party games, and cards and packaging. In addition, it provides toys and children's items; food products, such as sweets and chewing gums, chips, snacks, nuts, Tex-Mex, dry food ingredients, soups and sauces, seasoning and sweetening, drinks, children's food and drink, pastas, rice, flours, biscuits, rusks, rice cakes, cereals, muesli, flakes, preserves, jams, and marmalades; and home renovation products comprising tools, lamps, hardware and HVAC, construction and workwear, and solar panels and accessories. Further, the company offers car accessories, automotive chemicals and oils, and car wash products; leisure products; domestic appliances, entertainment electronics, information technology and gaming, phones and tablets, health and wellness equipment, and batteries; gift cards; and yard and garden products. Tokmanni Group Oyj was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Mäntsälä, Finland.
Stock analysis
Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) currently trades at €6.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.62, implying the stock looks roughly 34.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €24.59 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the €6.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.30, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €7.96 (bear) to €17.07 (bull), the price of €6.98 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tokmanni Group Oyj reported revenue of €1.7B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was €36.3M in FY2025, compounding −17.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €411M · P/E ratio 11.3 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) €0.6200 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 13.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 52%, TOKMAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €7.96Fair Value €10.62Bull €17.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.3292 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.6% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 25 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+52% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.94× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokmanni Group Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOKMAN
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.62 versus a price of €6.98, about +52% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOKMAN?
Our model-based fair value for Tokmanni Group Oyj is €10.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.98.
What is the quality score of TOKMAN?
Tokmanni Group Oyj has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.96, optimistic scenario €17.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokmanni Group Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.62, about +52% upside versus a price of €6.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €7.96, optimistic scenario €17.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
Tokmanni Group Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Tokmanni Group Oyj pay a dividend?
Tokmanni Group Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokmanni Group Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by -9.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOKMAN use?
Our models discount Tokmanni Group Oyj at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokmanni Group Oyj that is -9.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tokmanni Group Oyj grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies -9.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokmanni Group Oyj (-9.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.57 %: that much free cash flow Tokmanni Group Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokmanni Group Oyj it is €10.62 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €6.98. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokmanni Group Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TOKMAN trades below its calculated fair value: price €6.98, fair value €10.62, a gap of about +52% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOKMAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.62). For Tokmanni Group Oyj the two are €3.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokmanni Group Oyj worth?
The market values Tokmanni Group Oyj at about €411M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €6.98; our models calculate a fair value of €10.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOKMAN?
Our models span a range for Tokmanni Group Oyj: cautious scenario €7.96, base €10.62, optimistic €17.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €6.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOKMAN?
Tokmanni Group Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 9.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of TOKMAN?
The PEG ratio of Tokmanni Group Oyj is 9.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokmanni Group Oyj (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 13.2%, debt of 0.94 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOKMAN from its 52-week high?
Tokmanni Group Oyj trades at €6.98, about 25% below its 52-week high of €9.33 and 12% above the low of €6.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokmanni Group Oyj?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokmanni Group Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €6.98, calculated fair value €10.62 (+52%), Quality Score 48/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOKMAN calculated?
We run Tokmanni Group Oyj through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokmanni Group Oyj currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €6.98. Our model-based fair value is €10.62, about +52% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokmanni Group Oyj right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€7.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€7.96 to €17.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokmanni Group Oyj grew +7.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tokmanni Group Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The market capitalisation of Tokmanni Group Oyj is €411M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokmanni Group Oyj is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
Earnings per share at Tokmanni Group Oyj are €0.6200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The dividend yield of Tokmanni Group Oyj is 2.4% (payout 27.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The net margin of Tokmanni Group Oyj is 2.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokmanni Group Oyj is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokmanni Group Oyj is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
The operating margin of Tokmanni Group Oyj is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
Revenue at Tokmanni Group Oyj is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN)?
Earnings per share at Tokmanni Group Oyj are growing +5.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) carry?
The net debt of Tokmanni Group Oyj is €887M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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