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Tokmanni Group (TOKMAN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · FI · Market cap €416M

TG Tokmanni Group TOKMAN · HE
Price€6.70
Fair Value€10.62
Upside+58.5%
Quality48/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
4.77% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Narrow moat 36/100
Evidence: High Range €7.96 – €17.07 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €10.57 to €10.62 (+0.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −2.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 59% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€7.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (€7.96 to €17.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€20.58 €6.22 Fair Value €10.62 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €6.22 – €20.58 · fair‑value band €7.96 – €17.07 · the €6.70 price screens below the €10.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Tokmanni Group (TOKMAN) currently trades at €6.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.62, implying the stock looks roughly 58.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tokmanni Group generated revenue of €1.8B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. Net debt stands at €887M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €7.96 (bear case) to €17.07 (bull case); at €6.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at 59%, TOKMAN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €14.94 €23.81 €35.73 80
Residual Income €4.38 €4.97 €7.70 76
Rev-Margin DCF €11.38 €19.60 €29.50 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €14.96 €24.50 €37.86 38
Owner Earnings €20.06 €32.25 €49.33 31
5Y Revenue Exit €11.38 €19.51 €29.91 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €22.06 €40.17 €61.86 41
5Y P/E Exit €9.36 €15.61 €22.20 38
10Y Revenue Exit €12.26 €19.75 €29.95 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €18.92 €33.10 €52.94 37
10Y P/E Exit €11.42 €17.23 €24.41 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €4.25 €15.49 €20.90 54
Lynch FV €3.69 €5.26 €6.84 50
PEG = 1.0 €3.69 €5.26 €6.84 46
EPV €6.81 €8.20 €9.37 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €2.67 €4.82 €6.63 70
DDM Multi-Stage €2.67 €4.40 €5.15 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €10.30 €13.74 €17.17 63
P/S Multiple €7.96 €10.62 €13.27 58
P/B Multiple €7.96 €10.62 €13.27 55
EV/EBIT €15.98 €22.44 €28.91 53
EV/EBITDA €30.18 €41.38 €52.58 54
EV/Revenue €9.66 €15.26 €20.86 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.46 €3.30 €4.92 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €14.94 €23.81 €35.73 80
Rev-Margin DCF €11.38 €19.60 €29.50 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €4.38 €4.97 €7.70 76
ROIC Compounder €7.29 €9.82 €12.86 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €7.15 €10.21 €13.28 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€19.75) versus Asset-Based (€3.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €1.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.4%
Net margin 2.1%
Return on equity 13.2%
Free cash flow €109M FY2025
P/E ratio 11.6
More key figures
Operating margin -3.6%
EPS (TTM) €0.6200
Dividend yield 4.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +5.6%
Net debt €887M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 24
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tokmanni Group Oyj operates as a variety discount retailer in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark. It provides beauty care and cleaning, health and well-being, and cosmetics products; laundry and clothing care, clear-out, and home washing, cleaning, and storage products, as well as toilet paper, kitchen paper, and handkerchiefs; shoes for women, men, and children; …

Full company description

Tokmanni Group Oyj operates as a variety discount retailer in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark. It provides beauty care and cleaning, health and well-being, and cosmetics products; laundry and clothing care, clear-out, and home washing, cleaning, and storage products, as well as toilet paper, kitchen paper, and handkerchiefs; shoes for women, men, and children; clothing and accessories for women, men, and children; wallets, training bags, backpacks, and rain gears; and reflectors, including reflective strips, hanging reflectors, and reflective vests and harnesses. The company also offers home decoration products, such as interior furniture, minimization, soft furnishings, bed linen, and bathroom and sauna; dishes and cutlery, food preparation, kitchen textiles, and kitchen papers and supplies; crafts, craft supplies, drawing tools, stationery, office supplies, and books and paperbacks; and party supplies, including cake candles, balloons, party wear and accessories, party decorations and tableware, party games, and cards and packaging. In addition, it provides toys and children's items; food products, such as sweets and chewing gums, chips, snacks, nuts, Tex-Mex, dry food ingredients, soups and sauces, seasoning and sweetening, drinks, children's food and drink, pastas, rice, flours, biscuits, rusks, rice cakes, cereals, muesli, flakes, preserves, jams, and marmalades; and home renovation products comprising tools, lamps, hardware and HVAC, construction and workwear, and solar panels and accessories. Further, the company offers car accessories, automotive chemicals and oils, and car wash products; leisure products; domestic appliances, entertainment electronics, information technology and gaming, phones and tablets, health and wellness equipment, and batteries; gift cards; and yard and garden products. Tokmanni Group Oyj was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Mäntsälä, Finland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tokmanni Group reported revenue of €1.7B in FY2025 versus €1.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was €36.3M in FY2025, compounding −17.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€1.7B
Latest YoY
+3.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+14.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+10.0%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y)
+7.7%
Revenue +10.9%/yr
FY21 €1.1B
FY22 €1.2B
FY23 €1.4B
FY24 €1.7B
FY25 €1.7B
Net income −17.4%/yr
FY21 €78.0M
FY22 €58.7M
FY23 €54.0M
FY24 €48.4M
FY25 €36.3M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokmanni Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOKMAN

Peer Group

Discount Stores · 25 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +59% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -4% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.94× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.68× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 6.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 9.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 11
FUTURE 32 · sector 37
PAST 53 · sector 76
HEALTH 53 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 95 · sector 21

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Discount Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Walmart Inc WMT $113.90 $48.65 -57%
Costco Wholesale Corporation COST $916.25 $383.51 -58%
Target Corporation TGT $139.60 $118.22 -15%
Wal-Mart de México, S.A. WALMEX 49.49 MXN 60.59 MXN +22%
Dollarama Inc DOL C$188.95 C$92.38 -51%
Avenue Supermarts Limited DMART ₹4,081 ₹1,066 -74%
Dollar General Corporation DG $125.75 $116.55 -7%
Dollar Tree, Inc DLTR $124.91 $125.92 +1%
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings BJ $90.24 $80.99 -10%
Pepco Group PCO 40.64 PLN 54.90 PLN +35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tokmanni Group (TOKMAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.62 versus a price of €6.70, about +59% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOKMAN?
Our model-based fair value for Tokmanni Group is €10.62 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €6.70.
What is the quality score of TOKMAN?
Tokmanni Group has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tokmanni Group (TOKMAN)?
Tokmanni Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TOKMAN?
The net profit margin of Tokmanni Group is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Tokmanni Group pay a dividend?
Tokmanni Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.85% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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