Tokyu Corp (TOKUY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tokyu Corp stock $10.43, price $10.50, upside -0.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.17 – $18.33 · fair‑value band $9.38 – $12.68 · the $10.50 price screens above the $10.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Tokyu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation, real estate, life service, and hotel and resort businesses in Japan and internationally.
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It is involved in the railway, bus, and airport operations; and railway carriage business, such as designing and manufacturing equipment for railway carriages and contracting for renewal, repair, and periodic inspections, as well as undertaking design and construction of railway-related electronic work.
The company also sells, leases, and manages real estate properties; leases office buildings, commercial facilities, housing properties, and other real estate properties; offers real estate brokerage services; provides property management services for buildings; develops and sells residential land; constructs and sells houses and others; and offers real estate management and construction, and building management services.
In addition, it engages in the department store, chain store and other retailing, shopping center, cinema complex, and advertising operations, as well as offers cable television, electric power, and internet connection services. Further, the company operates hotels and golf courses.
Tokyu Corporation was incorporated in 1922 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyu Corp (TOKUY) currently trades at $10.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.43, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $17.50 per share, and 5 of the 14 models we run sit above the $10.50 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.97, and 9 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.38 (bear) to $12.68 (bull), the price of $10.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tokyu Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥1.2T in FY2026 versus ¥879B in FY2022, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥92.3B in FY2026, compounding +80.1%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B Mid · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) $1.11 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −1%, TOKUY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.38Fair Value $10.43Bull$12.68
Price $10.50 · Upside -0.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5186 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30.9% vs 6.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 54% above its own trend.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The integrated rail, retail and real estate model benefits from inbound traffic, while high debt and dependence on multi-year redevelopment projects constrain durability.
Main risk: Heavy reliance on multi-year redevelopment projects around the station risks delaying future leasing income.
Tokyu completed a buyback of over two percent of its shares this year while its retail arm readies a Korean-brand pop-up across Shibuya properties starting mid-October. The integrated rail, retail and real estate model benefits from inbound traffic yet depends heavily on multi-year redevelopment projects around the station to lift future leasing income. Will the capital returns and short-term events outweigh slower progress on those larger assets?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−0.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.7% · Above median
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.43 versus a price of $10.50, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TOKUY?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyu Corp ADR is $10.43 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.50.
What is the quality score of TOKUY?
Tokyu Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.43 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.38, optimistic scenario $12.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyu Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.43, about −1% upside versus a price of $10.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $9.38, optimistic scenario $12.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
Tokyu Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.1T (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Tokyu Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Tokyu Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.82% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyu Corp ADR it is $10.43 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $10.50. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyu Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, TOKUY trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.50, fair value $10.43, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOKUY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.43). For Tokyu Corp ADR the two are $0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyu Corp ADR worth?
The market values Tokyu Corp ADR at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.50; our models calculate a fair value of $10.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOKUY?
Our models span a range for Tokyu Corp ADR: cautious scenario $9.38, base $10.43, optimistic $12.68 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $10.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOKUY?
Tokyu Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.43 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2026), reported earnings: 19.9. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyu Corp ADR (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOKUY from its 52-week high?
Tokyu Corp ADR trades at $10.50, about 16% below its 52-week high of $12.53 and 9% above the low of $9.63 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyu Corp ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyu Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $10.50, calculated fair value $10.43 (−1%), Quality Score 48/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOKUY calculated?
We run Tokyu Corp ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyu Corp ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $10.50. Our model-based fair value is $10.43, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyu Corp ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY) come from?
Earnings per share at Tokyu Corp ADR grew +4.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.6 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tokyu Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyu Corp ADR is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyu Corp ADR is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyu Corp ADR are $1.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
The dividend yield of Tokyu Corp ADR is 1.8% (payout 17.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
The net margin of Tokyu Corp ADR is 8.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyu Corp ADR is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyu Corp ADR is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
The operating margin of Tokyu Corp ADR is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
Revenue at Tokyu Corp ADR is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyu Corp (TOKUY)?
Earnings per share at Tokyu Corp ADR are growing +45.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Tokyu Corp (TOKUY) generate?
The free cash flow of Tokyu Corp ADR is −¥37.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Tokyu Corp (TOKUY) carry?
The net debt of Tokyu Corp ADR is ¥1.3T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 23, 2026