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TON Strategy Co (TONX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TON Strategy Co stock $0.68, price $2.68, upside -74.6%, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US92337U3023

TS TON Strategy Co logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

TON Strategy Co

TONX · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 75% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.1 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $0.6800 · Strongly overvalued (−74.6%)
Quality 34/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 13/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$23,840 $1.80 Fair Value $0.6800 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.80 – $23,840 · fair‑value band $0.4500 – $0.8600 · the $2.68 price screens above the $0.6800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

TON Strategy Company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an interactive video-based social commerce company. The company operates in three segments: TON, MARKET.live, and Go Fund Yourself. The company offers digital asset treasury and Web3 ecosystem.

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It also provides MARKET.live, a livestream social shopping platform that allows brands, retailers, and creators to broadcast shopping events on various social media channels.

In addition, the company offers GO FUND YOURSELF, an interactive social crowd funding platform and TV show for public and private companies on various social media channels. The company was formerly known as Verb Technology Company, Inc. and changed its name to TON Strategy Company in September 2025.

TON Strategy Company is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Stock analysis

TON Strategy Co (TONX) currently trades at $2.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6800, 74.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.4500 (bear) to $0.8600 (bull), the price of $2.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

TON Strategy Co reported revenue of $12.8M in FY2025 versus $10.5M in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$148M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $148M Micro · P/S ratio 6.38 · EPS (TTM) $−4.54 · Return on equity −73.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −73.4% · Operating margin 3.2% · Revenue (TTM) $30.8M · Revenue growth (YoY) +607%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −75%, TONX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.4500 Fair Value $0.6800 Bull $0.8600
Price $2.68 · Upside -74.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.4500 $0.6800 $0.8600 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.4500 $0.6800 $0.8600 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 83
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 41
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 27
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 18
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 50
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1,327.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+87.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−248.2% (2020) → −260.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TONX screens overvalued: fair value 75% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 650 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −74.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −36.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 3.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 607.4% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 4.79× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 41
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Adobe Inc ADBE $240.68 $454.04 +89% vs TONX
Salesforce, Inc CRM $235.95 $342.73 +45% vs TONX
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $71.50 $103.69 +45% vs TONX
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $138.61 $152.47 +10% vs TONX
SAP SE SAP €196.94 €172.46 −12% vs TONX
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $352.84 $225.48 −36% vs TONX
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $273.81 $150.01 −45% vs TONX
Shopify Inc SHOP $170.85 $64.36 −62% vs TONX
Snowflake Inc SNOW $360.37 $74.36 −79% vs TONX
Datadog, Inc DDOG $293.26 $32.52 −89% vs TONX

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TON Strategy Co · Fair Value
$0.6800 −75%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TON Strategy Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TONX

Frequently asked questions

Is TON Strategy Co (TONX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6800 versus a price of $2.68, about −75% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TONX?
Our model-based fair value for TON Strategy Co is $0.6800 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.68.
What is the quality score of TONX?
TON Strategy Co has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6800 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4500, optimistic scenario $0.8600. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TON Strategy Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6800, about −75% upside versus a price of $2.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4500, optimistic scenario $0.8600. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
TON Strategy Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.8M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TON Strategy Co it is $0.6800 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $2.68. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TON Strategy Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, TONX trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.68, fair value $0.6800, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TONX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6800). For TON Strategy Co the two are $2.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TON Strategy Co worth?
The market values TON Strategy Co at about $148M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $2.68; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TONX?
Our models span a range for TON Strategy Co: cautious scenario $0.4500, base $0.6800, optimistic $0.8600 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $2.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
Balance-sheet figures for TON Strategy Co (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −73.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TONX from its 52-week high?
TON Strategy Co trades at $2.68, about 38% below its 52-week high of $4.31 and 49% above the low of $1.80 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TON Strategy Co?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TON Strategy Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $2.68, calculated fair value $0.6800 (−75%), Quality Score 34/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TONX calculated?
We run TON Strategy Co through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. TON Strategy Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $2.68. Our model-based fair value is $0.6800, about −75% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TON Strategy Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8600). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4500 to $0.8600) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of TON Strategy Co

How large is the market capitalisation of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
The market capitalisation of TON Strategy Co is $148M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TON Strategy Co is 6.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
Earnings per share at TON Strategy Co are $−4.54. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TON Strategy Co is −73.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TON Strategy Co is −73.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
The operating margin of TON Strategy Co is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TON Strategy Co (TONX)?
Revenue at TON Strategy Co is growing +607% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,069%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does TON Strategy Co (TONX) generate?
The free cash flow of TON Strategy Co is −$20.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does TON Strategy Co (TONX) hold?
TON Strategy Co holds more cash than debt, $39.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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