Toast, Inc (TOST) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $17.0B
Toast, Inc
TOST · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +17.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range $12.68 – $65.22 · fair‑value band $6.46 – $10.77 · the $34.72 price screens above the $8.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Toast, Inc (TOST) currently trades at $34.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.62, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Toast, Inc generated revenue of $6.4B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 21.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.46 (bear case) to $10.77 (bull case); at $34.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -75%, TOST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($29.89) versus Asset-Based ($2.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally.
Full company description
Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally. It offers a platform of software-as-a-service for restaurant operations and point of sale, such as Toast POS; Toast IQ, a conversational artificial intelligence; vendor management; multi-location management; kitchen display system; online ordering and delivery. It offers payroll and team management; inventory and supply chain tools; xtraCHEF by toast, a set of back-office tools for restaurants, including accounts payable automation, inventory management, ingredient price tracking, and recipe costing; financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, and restaurant-grade hardware. The company was formerly known as Opti Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Toast, Inc. in May 2012. Toast, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Toast, Inc reported revenue of $6.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +37.8%/yr. Reported net income was $342M in FY2025.
TOST screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Seeking Clues to Toast (TOST) Q2 Earnings? A Peek Into Wall Street Projections for Key Metrics
- Toast (TOST) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings
- Toast (TOST) Stock Dips While Market Gains: Key Facts
- Toast (TOST) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher As Analysts Weigh AI Growth And Margins
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 367 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Palantir Technologies Inc 1PLTR | €112.86 | €12.03 | -89% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €381.50 | €118.28 | -69% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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