Toast Inc (TOST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toast Inc stock $21.32, price $35.16, that is 39.4% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.68 – $65.22 · fair‑value band $12.28 – $33.08 · the $35.16 price screens above the $21.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Toast, Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform for the restaurant industry in the United States, Ireland, India, and internationally.
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It offers a platform of software-as-a-service for restaurant operations and point of sale, such as Toast POS; Toast IQ, a conversational artificial intelligence; vendor management; multi-location management; kitchen display system; online ordering and delivery.
It offers payroll and team management; inventory and supply chain tools; xtraCHEF by toast, a set of back-office tools for restaurants, including accounts payable automation, inventory management, ingredient price tracking, and recipe costing; financial technology solutions, including integrated payment processing, and restaurant-grade hardware.
The company was formerly known as Opti Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Toast, Inc. in May 2012. Toast, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Toast Inc (TOST) currently trades at $35.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.32, 39% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $23.29 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $35.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.21, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $12.28 (bear) to $33.08 (bull), the price of $35.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Toast Inc reported revenue of $6.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +37.8%/yr. Reported net income was $342M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $20.7B Large · P/E ratio 42.4 · P/S ratio 3.05 · EPS (TTM) $0.7900 · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 25.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −7.9% · Operating margin 7.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −39%, TOST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.28Fair Value $21.32Bull$33.08
Price $35.16 · Downside -39.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6710 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $23.8M and none bought.
SaleRossana NiolaPrincipal Accounting Officer2× since Aug 4, 2026: 3,426 shares, avg. $33.45$114,605Nov 3, 2026
SaleJonathan VassilChief Revenue Officer16× since Jan 2, 2026: 281,672 shares, avg. $34.48$9.7MNov 2, 2026
SaleBrian R ElworthyGeneral Counsel6× since Jan 5, 2026: 128,474 shares, avg. $26.46$3.4MOct 2, 2026
SaleAman NarangCEO, Director7× since Jan 5, 2026: 352,780 shares, avg. $34.39$12.1MOct 2, 2026
SaleStephen FredettePresident, Director5× since Jan 5, 2026: 31,729 shares, avg. $29.29$929,213Oct 2, 2026
SaleElena GomezPresident, CFO7× since Jan 5, 2026: 65,529 shares, avg. $31.63$2.1MOct 2, 2026
SaleSusan Chapman-HughesDirector8,500 shares at $28.97$246,245Mar 12, 2026
Plus 28 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.9%
’19
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’21
’22
’23
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.7% (2020) → 5.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price and +13.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Toast shows moderate moat signals from cash generation and returns while its AI agents deepen platform integration through POS data usage, yet thin public data on intangibles and only moderate margins leave durability unconfirmed.
Main risk: The FTC and states could impose injunctions or penalties that force changes to subscription models and fee structures, hitting margins and new customer sign-ups.
Bull case: Toast could use its data and AI agents to deepen platform stickiness and differentiate from rivals while addressing regulatory concerns through greater transparency.
Bear case: If the lawsuit leads to restricted practices and rivals gain share with cheaper options, Toast could see slower location growth and compressed margins on its core subscriptions and payments.
Toast is adding AI agents that use its own POS data to forecast demand, build staff schedules and run targeted marketing for operators. This move deepens integration and targets real pain points like overtime costs and guest acquisition, yet it also shifts more of the day-to-day work onto the platform. Will the added recurring revenue from these tools offset any pressure on location growth as restaurants weigh the switch?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 341 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.08× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)42.4× · Pricier than median
P/B9.77× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.05× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow34.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA41.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.25× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 60
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)96· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 31
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toast Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOST
Frequently asked questions
Is Toast Inc (TOST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.32 versus a price of $35.16, about 39% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOST?
Our model-based fair value for Toast Inc is $21.32 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $35.16.
What is the quality score of TOST?
Toast Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toast Inc (TOST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.32 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.28, optimistic scenario $33.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toast Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.32, about 39% lower versus a price of $35.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.28, optimistic scenario $33.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toast Inc (TOST)?
Toast Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toast Inc (TOST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toast Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +20.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +49.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOST use?
Our models discount Toast Inc at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toast Inc that is +20.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toast Inc (TOST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toast Inc grew +49.5 % a year. The price currently implies +20.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toast Inc (TOST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toast Inc (+20.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toast Inc (TOST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.93 %: that much free cash flow Toast Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toast Inc (TOST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toast Inc it is $21.32 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $35.16. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toast Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, TOST trades above its calculated fair value: price $35.16, fair value $21.32, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($35.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.32). For Toast Inc the two are $13.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toast Inc worth?
The market values Toast Inc at about $20.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $35.16; our models calculate a fair value of $21.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOST?
Our models span a range for Toast Inc: cautious scenario $12.28, base $21.32, optimistic $33.08 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $35.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOST?
Toast Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.4 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 9.8, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 41.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TOST?
The PEG ratio of Toast Inc is 0.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toast Inc (TOST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toast Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 25.2%, debt of 0.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOST from its 52-week high?
Toast Inc trades at $35.16, about 10% below its 52-week high of $39.02 and 57% above the low of $22.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toast Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toast Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $35.16, calculated fair value $21.32 (−39%), Quality Score 72/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOST calculated?
We run Toast Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Toast Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toast Inc (TOST)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $35.16. Our model-based fair value is $21.32, about 39% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toast Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($12.28 to $33.08). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Toast Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Toast Inc (TOST)?
The market capitalisation of Toast Inc is $20.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toast Inc (TOST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toast Inc is 3.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toast Inc (TOST)?
Earnings per share at Toast Inc are $0.7900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Toast Inc (TOST)?
The net margin of Toast Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toast Inc (TOST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toast Inc is 25.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toast Inc (TOST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toast Inc is −7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toast Inc (TOST)?
The operating margin of Toast Inc is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toast Inc (TOST)?
Revenue at Toast Inc is growing +23.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toast Inc (TOST)?
Earnings per share at Toast Inc are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Toast Inc (TOST) hold?
Toast Inc holds more cash than debt, $1.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 4, 2026