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Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $50.2M

TC Tuniu Corporation logo Tuniu Corporation TOUR · US
Price$5.12
Fair Value$9.50
Upside+85.6%
Quality49/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
Narrow moat 21/100
Evidence: Medium Range $7.17 – $9.96 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 14 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $9.47 to $9.50 (+0.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +3.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 86% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$24.35 $3.86 Fair Value $9.50 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.86 – $24.35 · fair‑value band $7.17 – $9.96 · the $5.12 price screens below the $9.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) currently trades at $5.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.50, implying the stock looks roughly 85.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Tuniu Corporation generated revenue of $593M at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 12.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $106M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $7.17 (bear case) to $9.96 (bull case); at $5.12, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at 86%, TOUR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $65.01 $60.40 $43.96 76
ROIC Compounder $26.12 $26.84 $27.42 72
Growth-Adj P/E $36.32 $51.89 $67.45 68
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $49.10 $57.54 $67.22 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $20.02 $45.54 $58.34 54
PEG = 1.0 $7.54 $10.77 $14.01 46
EPV $26.12 $26.84 $27.42 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $48.57 $64.77 $80.96 63
P/S Multiple $37.53 $50.05 $62.56 58
P/B Multiple $37.53 $50.05 $62.56 55
EV/EBIT $33.26 $37.63 $42.00 53
EV/EBITDA $42.01 $49.29 $56.58 54
EV/Revenue $28.99 $32.77 $36.56 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $50.12 $67.16 $100.24 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income $65.01 $60.40 $43.96 76
ROIC Compounder $26.12 $26.84 $27.42 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $36.32 $51.89 $67.45 68

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($67.16) versus Earnings-Based ($26.84). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $593M
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.8%
Net margin 6.2%
Return on equity 3.7%
Free cash flow −$116M FY2025
P/E ratio 10.5
More key figures
Operating margin -2.8%
EPS (TTM) $0.4400
EPS growth (YoY) -51.5%
Net cash $106M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Tuniu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online leisure travel company in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Tuniu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online leisure travel company in the People's Republic of China. The company offers various packaged tours, including organized tours that provide pre-arranged itineraries, transportation, accommodation, entertainment, meals, and tour guide services; and self-guided tours consist of flights and hotel bookings, and other optional add-ons. It also sells tourist attraction tickets; and provides visa applications, hotel booking, air ticketing, train ticketing, car rental, and insurance services. In addition, the company offers advertising services to tourism boards and bureaus. The company offers its products and services through various online and offline channels, including the tuniu.com website; mobile platform; call center in Nanjing; and offline retail stores in China. Tuniu Corporation was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Nanjing, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Tuniu Corporation reported revenue of $562M in FY2025 versus $426M in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $30.3M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 36/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$562M
Latest YoY
+9.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+45.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.5%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.2%
Revenue +7.2%/yr
FY21 $426M
FY22 $184M
FY23 $441M
FY24 $514M
FY25 $562M
Net income
FY21 −$122M
FY22 −$193M
FY23 −$99.3M
FY24 $77.2M
FY25 $30.3M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tuniu Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOUR

Peer Group

Travel Services · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside +86% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 13% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 6,543.00× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 19
FUTURE 64 · sector 25
PAST 15 · sector 36
HEALTH 100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 36

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Booking Holdings BKNG $182.80 $152.94 -16%
Airbnb, Inc ABNB $148.62 $57.47 -61%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL $286.96 $215.19 -25%
Viking Holdings VIK $100.69 $43.51 -57%
Carnival Corporation CCL $26.41 $31.36 +19%
Expedia Group EXPE $268.77 $248.63 -7%
Trip.com Group TCOM $42.45 $88.82 +109%
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH $19.46 $20.28 +4%
Global Business Travel Group GBTG $9.40 $4.17 -56%
Travel + Leisure Co TNL $73.27 $27.29 -63%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.50 versus a price of $5.12, about +86% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOUR?
Our model-based fair value for Tuniu Corporation is $9.50 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $5.12.
What is the quality score of TOUR?
Tuniu Corporation has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Tuniu Corporation (TOUR)?
Tuniu Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $593M (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TOUR?
The net profit margin of Tuniu Corporation is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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