Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $50.2M
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $9.47 to $9.50 (+0.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +3.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 86% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.86 – $24.35 · fair‑value band $7.17 – $9.96 · the $5.12 price screens below the $9.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Tuniu Corporation (TOUR) currently trades at $5.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.50, implying the stock looks roughly 85.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tuniu Corporation generated revenue of $593M at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 12.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $106M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.17 (bear case) to $9.96 (bull case); at $5.12, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at 86%, TOUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($67.16) versus Earnings-Based ($26.84). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tuniu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online leisure travel company in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Tuniu Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online leisure travel company in the People's Republic of China. The company offers various packaged tours, including organized tours that provide pre-arranged itineraries, transportation, accommodation, entertainment, meals, and tour guide services; and self-guided tours consist of flights and hotel bookings, and other optional add-ons. It also sells tourist attraction tickets; and provides visa applications, hotel booking, air ticketing, train ticketing, car rental, and insurance services. In addition, the company offers advertising services to tourism boards and bureaus. The company offers its products and services through various online and offline channels, including the tuniu.com website; mobile platform; call center in Nanjing; and offline retail stores in China. Tuniu Corporation was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Nanjing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tuniu Corporation reported revenue of $562M in FY2025 versus $426M in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $30.3M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Travel Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Travel Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Booking Holdings BKNG | $182.80 | $152.94 | -16% |
| Airbnb, Inc ABNB | $148.62 | $57.47 | -61% |
| Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd RCL | $286.96 | $215.19 | -25% |
| Viking Holdings VIK | $100.69 | $43.51 | -57% |
| Carnival Corporation CCL | $26.41 | $31.36 | +19% |
| Expedia Group EXPE | $268.77 | $248.63 | -7% |
| Trip.com Group TCOM | $42.45 | $88.82 | +109% |
| Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH | $19.46 | $20.28 | +4% |
| Global Business Travel Group GBTG | $9.40 | $4.17 | -56% |
| Travel + Leisure Co TNL | $73.27 | $27.29 | -63% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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