Spin Master Corp (TOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Spin Master Corp C$41.22, price C$19.68, upside +109.5%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$17.22 – C$47.64 · fair‑value band C$29.69 – C$52.75 · the C$19.68 price screens below the C$41.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, engages in the creation, design, manufacture, licensing, and marketing of various toys, entertainment products, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games.
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Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, engages in the creation, design, manufacture, licensing, and marketing of various toys, entertainment products, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games. The Toys segment offers preschool, infant and toddler, and plush products; activities, games and puzzles, and dolls; wheels and action products; and outdoor products. The Entertainment segment engages in the creation and production of multi-platform content, as well as non-toy consumer products, including apparel and other consumer goods, and publishing and live entertainment. The Digital Games segment is involved in the development of digital games distributed through third-party platform providers. Spin Master Corp. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Spin Master Corp (TOY) currently trades at C$19.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$41.22, implying the stock looks roughly 52.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$36.27 per share, and 10 of the 13 models we run sit above the C$19.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$8.07, and 3 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$29.69 (bear) to C$52.75 (bull), the price of C$19.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Spin Master Corp reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$151M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$2.2B (≈ $1.6B) · P/E ex one-offs 10.5 · P/S ratio 1.07 · EPS (TTM) C$−2.19 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin −7.0% · Return on equity −12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 109%, TOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$29.69Fair Value C$41.22Bull C$52.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2020) → 8.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.4% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+110% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Spin Master Corp (TOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$41.22 versus a price of C$19.68, about +109% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOY?
Our model-based fair value for Spin Master Corp is C$41.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$19.68.
What is the quality score of TOY?
Spin Master Corp has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$41.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$29.69, optimistic scenario C$52.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Spin Master Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$41.22, about +109% upside versus a price of C$19.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$29.69, optimistic scenario C$52.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Spin Master Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Spin Master Corp pay a dividend?
Spin Master Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Spin Master Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOY use?
Our models discount Spin Master Corp at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Spin Master Corp that is -10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Spin Master Corp (TOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Spin Master Corp grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies -10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Spin Master Corp (TOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Spin Master Corp (-10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.90 %: that much free cash flow Spin Master Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Spin Master Corp it is C$41.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of C$19.68. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Spin Master Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TOY trades below its calculated fair value: price C$19.68, fair value C$41.22, a gap of about +109% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$19.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$41.22). For Spin Master Corp the two are C$21.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Spin Master Corp worth?
The market values Spin Master Corp at about C$2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is C$19.68; our models calculate a fair value of C$41.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOY?
Our models span a range for Spin Master Corp: cautious scenario C$29.69, base C$41.22, optimistic C$52.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price C$19.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TOY?
The PEG ratio of Spin Master Corp is 0.45 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Spin Master Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −12.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOY from its 52-week high?
Spin Master Corp trades at C$19.68, about 16% below its 52-week high of C$23.49 and 14% above the low of C$17.22 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$41.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Spin Master Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Spin Master Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price C$19.68, calculated fair value C$41.22 (+109%), Quality Score 57/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOY calculated?
We run Spin Master Corp through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$41.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Spin Master Corp currently trades 109 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$19.68. Our model-based fair value is C$41.22, about +109% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Spin Master Corp right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$29.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Spin Master Corp (TOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Spin Master Corp grew +5.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Spin Master Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The market capitalisation of Spin Master Corp is C$2.2B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Spin Master Corp (TOY) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Spin Master Corp is 10.5 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Spin Master Corp is 1.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Earnings per share at Spin Master Corp are C$−2.19. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The dividend yield of Spin Master Corp is 2.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The net margin of Spin Master Corp is −7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Spin Master Corp is −12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Spin Master Corp is 11.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
The operating margin of Spin Master Corp is −10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Revenue at Spin Master Corp is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Earnings per share at Spin Master Corp are growing −22.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Spin Master Corp (TOY) carry?
The net debt of Spin Master Corp is $354M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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