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Spin Master Corp (TOY) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$2.2B

SM Spin Master Corp TOY · TO
PriceC$20.65
Fair ValueC$29.22
Upside+41.5%
Quality57/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -7.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
1.62% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: Medium Range C$21.05 – C$37.40 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Share price −5.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 42% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • Our model range runs from C$21.05 (bear) to C$37.40 (bull), base C$29.22. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$47.64 C$17.22 Fair Value C$29.22 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$17.22 – C$47.64 · fair‑value band C$21.05 – C$37.40 · the C$20.65 price screens below the C$29.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Spin Master Corp (TOY) currently trades at C$20.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$29.22, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Spin Master Corp generated revenue of C$2.1B at a net margin of -7.5%. Revenue declined 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.3%. Net debt stands at C$354M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$21.05 (bear case) to C$37.40 (bull case); at C$20.65, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 42%, TOY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF C$26.31 C$36.98 C$51.35 80
Rev-Margin DCF C$20.05 C$29.52 C$40.20 74
ROIC Compounder C$16.22 C$19.87 C$24.11 72
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$25.85 C$37.76 C$54.73 38
5Y Revenue Exit C$20.05 C$29.25 C$40.65 39
5Y EBITDA Exit C$26.45 C$41.00 C$57.59 41
10Y Revenue Exit C$21.54 C$30.23 C$41.23 36
10Y EBITDA Exit C$25.97 C$38.12 C$53.64 37
Earnings-Based
EPV C$15.61 C$17.91 C$19.89 59
Multiples
EV/EBIT C$25.56 C$33.74 C$41.92 53
EV/EBITDA C$30.22 C$39.95 C$49.68 54
EV/Revenue C$17.57 C$24.65 C$31.74 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$6.02 C$8.07 C$12.05 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$26.31 C$36.98 C$51.35 80
Rev-Margin DCF C$20.05 C$29.52 C$40.20 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder C$16.22 C$19.87 C$24.11 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$37.76) versus Asset-Based (C$8.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) C$2.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.6%
Net margin -7.5%
Return on equity -12.3%
Free cash flow C$239M FY2025
Operating margin -10.0%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) C$-2.14
Dividend yield 1.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -22.0%
Net debt C$354M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 36
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, engages in the creation, design, manufacture, licensing, and marketing of various toys, entertainment products, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games.

Full company description

Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, engages in the creation, design, manufacture, licensing, and marketing of various toys, entertainment products, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games. The Toys segment offers preschool, infant and toddler, and plush products; activities, games and puzzles, and dolls; wheels and action products; and outdoor products. The Entertainment segment engages in the creation and production of multi-platform content, as well as non-toy consumer products, including apparel and other consumer goods, and publishing and live entertainment. The Digital Games segment is involved in the development of digital games distributed through third-party platform providers. Spin Master Corp. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Spin Master Corp reported revenue of C$2.1B in FY2025 versus C$2.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −C$151M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$2.1B
Latest YoY
−5.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
+13.4%
Revenue +1.3%/yr
FY21 C$2.0B
FY22 C$2.0B
FY23 C$1.9B
FY24 C$2.3B
FY25 C$2.1B
Net income
FY21 C$199M
FY22 C$261M
FY23 C$151M
FY24 C$81.9M
FY25 −C$151M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Spin Master Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TOY

Peer Group

Leisure · 192 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside +42% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) -7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -10% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.77× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 6.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.45× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 89 · sector 14
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 0 · sector 19
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 32 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 HK$74.15 HK$119.29 +61%
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$160.20 HK$227.30 +42%
Amer Sports, Inc AS $36.44 $16.16 -56%
Hasbro, Inc HAS $81.55 $83.38 +2%
Life Time Group LTH $42.15 $16.15 -62%
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $114.78 $37.79 -67%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$14.80 HK$29.26 +98%
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,255 PLN 3,714 PLN -29%
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.82 ¥39.17 +4%
Asmodee Group ASMDEEB kr 145.70 kr 41.90 -71%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Spin Master Corp (TOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$29.22 versus a price of C$20.65, about +42% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TOY?
Our model-based fair value for Spin Master Corp is C$29.22 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is C$20.65.
What is the quality score of TOY?
Spin Master Corp has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Spin Master Corp (TOY)?
Spin Master Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TOY?
The net profit margin of Spin Master Corp is about -7.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Spin Master Corp pay a dividend?
Spin Master Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.88% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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