Spin Master Corp (TOY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$2.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price −5.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 42% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- Our model range runs from C$21.05 (bear) to C$37.40 (bull), base C$29.22. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$17.22 – C$47.64 · fair‑value band C$21.05 – C$37.40 · the C$20.65 price screens below the C$29.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Spin Master Corp (TOY) currently trades at C$20.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$29.22, implying the stock looks roughly 41.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Spin Master Corp generated revenue of C$2.1B at a net margin of -7.5%. Revenue declined 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -12.3%. Net debt stands at C$354M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$21.05 (bear case) to C$37.40 (bull case); at C$20.65, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 42%, TOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$37.76) versus Asset-Based (C$8.07). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, engages in the creation, design, manufacture, licensing, and marketing of various toys, entertainment products, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games.
Full company description
Spin Master Corp., a children's entertainment company, engages in the creation, design, manufacture, licensing, and marketing of various toys, entertainment products, and digital games in North America, Europe, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Toys, Entertainment, and Digital Games. The Toys segment offers preschool, infant and toddler, and plush products; activities, games and puzzles, and dolls; wheels and action products; and outdoor products. The Entertainment segment engages in the creation and production of multi-platform content, as well as non-toy consumer products, including apparel and other consumer goods, and publishing and live entertainment. The Digital Games segment is involved in the development of digital games distributed through third-party platform providers. Spin Master Corp. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Spin Master Corp reported revenue of C$2.1B in FY2025 versus C$2.0B in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was −C$151M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Leisure · 192 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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