Tupy S.A (TUPY3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tupy S.A BRL 39.20, price BRL 16.68, upside +135.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$11.34 – R$27.54 · fair‑value band R$20.99 – R$63.09 · the R$16.68 price screens below the R$39.20 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tupy S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of cast and compacted graphite iron structural components internationally. The company offers corporate activities abroad. It operates industrial plants focused on freight transportation, infrastructure, and agriculture.
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Tupy S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of cast and compacted graphite iron structural components internationally. The company offers corporate activities abroad. It operates industrial plants focused on freight transportation, infrastructure, and agriculture. It also engages in machining and assembly of engines and power generators; labor services; logistics, sales, and technical assistance in the freight transportation; infrastructure; and agriculture. In addition, it incorporates companies abroad to enable the issuance of debt securities in international markets. Tupy S.A. was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Joinville, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Tupy S.A (TUPY3) currently trades at R$16.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$39.20, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$51.71 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the R$16.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$12.80, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$20.99 (bear) to R$63.09 (bull), the price of R$16.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tupy S.A reported revenue of R$9.7B in FY2025 versus R$7.1B in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was −R$657M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$2.2B (≈ $425M) · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) R$−5.61 · Dividend yield 9.1% · Net margin −6.8% · Return on equity −26.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% · Operating margin −0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 135%, TUPY3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$20.99Fair Value R$39.20Bull R$63.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.0% (2020) → 2.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Metal Fabrication · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside+142% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.55× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Metal Fabrication median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tupy S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TUPY3
Frequently asked questions
Is Tupy S.A (TUPY3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$39.20 versus a price of R$16.68, about +135% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TUPY3?
Our model-based fair value for Tupy S.A is R$39.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$16.68.
What is the quality score of TUPY3?
Tupy S.A has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$39.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$20.99, optimistic scenario R$63.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tupy S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$39.20, about +135% upside versus a price of R$16.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$20.99, optimistic scenario R$63.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
Tupy S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$9.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tupy S.A pay a dividend?
Tupy S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tupy S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TUPY3 use?
Our models discount Tupy S.A at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tupy S.A that is +9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tupy S.A (TUPY3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tupy S.A grew +17.9 % a year. The price currently implies +9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tupy S.A (TUPY3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tupy S.A (+9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.27 %: that much free cash flow Tupy S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tupy S.A it is R$39.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$16.68. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tupy S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TUPY3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$16.68, fair value R$39.20, a gap of about +135% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TUPY3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$16.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$39.20). For Tupy S.A the two are R$22.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tupy S.A worth?
The market values Tupy S.A at about R$2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$16.68; our models calculate a fair value of R$39.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TUPY3?
Our models span a range for Tupy S.A: cautious scenario R$20.99, base R$39.20, optimistic R$63.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$16.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TUPY3?
The PEG ratio of Tupy S.A is 0.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tupy S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −26.1%, debt of 1.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TUPY3 from its 52-week high?
Tupy S.A trades at R$16.68, at its 52-week high of R$16.68 and 47% above the low of R$11.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$39.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tupy S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Carpenter Technology Corporation, ATI Inc, Mueller Industries, Inc, Aurubis AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tupy S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$16.68, calculated fair value R$39.20 (+135%), Quality Score 46/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TUPY3 calculated?
We run Tupy S.A through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$39.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Tupy S.A currently trades 135 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was R$16.68. Our model-based fair value is R$39.20, about +135% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tupy S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$20.99). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (R$20.99 to R$63.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Tupy S.A (TUPY3) come from?
Earnings per share at Tupy S.A grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.4 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tupy S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The market capitalisation of Tupy S.A is R$2.2B (≈ $425M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tupy S.A is 0.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
Earnings per share at Tupy S.A are R$−5.61. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The dividend yield of Tupy S.A is 9.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The net margin of Tupy S.A is −6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tupy S.A is −26.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tupy S.A is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
The operating margin of Tupy S.A is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
Revenue at Tupy S.A is growing −7.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tupy S.A (TUPY3)?
Earnings per share at Tupy S.A are growing +32.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tupy S.A (TUPY3) carry?
The net debt of Tupy S.A is R$2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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