TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited ₹51.93, price ₹128, upside -59.6%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range ₹90.97 – ₹245.35 · fair‑value band ₹44.59 – ₹67.99 · the ₹128.42 price screens above the ₹51.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited provides integrated supply chain solutions in India. The company operates through two segments: Integrated Supply Chain Solutions (ISCS) and Network Solutions (NS).
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TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited provides integrated supply chain solutions in India. The company operates through two segments: Integrated Supply Chain Solutions (ISCS) and Network Solutions (NS). The ISCS segment consists of sourcing and procurement, integrated transportation, logistics operation centers, in-plant logistics operations, finished goods, aftermarket fulfillment, and supply chain consulting services. The NS segment includes global forwarding solutions, which manages end-to-end freight forwarding and distribution services through ocean, air and land, warehousing and at port storage, and value-added services, as well as integrated final mile solutions comprising closed loop logistics and support, including spares logistics, break-fix, refurbishment and engineering support, and courier and consignment management services. It serves automotive, industrial, consumer, tech, infra, rail, utilities, and healthcare sectors. The company was formerly known as TVS Logistics Services Limited and changed its name to TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited in November 2019. TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Chennai, India.
Stock analysis
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS) currently trades at ₹128.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹51.93, 59.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹139.19 per share, and 8 of the 24 models we run sit above the ₹128.42 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ₹20.75, and 16 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹44.59 (bear) to ₹67.99 (bull), the price of ₹128.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited reported revenue of ₹110B in FY2026 versus ₹92.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was ₹1.1B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹56.7B (≈ $588M) · P/E ratio 87.4 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) ₹1.47 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% · Operating margin 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −60%, TVSSCS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹44.59Fair Value ₹51.93Bull ₹67.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹0.7451 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+41.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.3% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 208 stocks
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Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹51.93 versus a price of ₹128.42, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TVSSCS?
Our model-based fair value for TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is ₹51.93 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹128.42.
What is the quality score of TVSSCS?
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹51.93 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹44.59, optimistic scenario ₹67.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹51.93, about −60% upside versus a price of ₹128.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹44.59, optimistic scenario ₹67.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹117B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TVSSCS use?
Our models discount TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited that is +11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (+11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.30 %: that much free cash flow TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited it is ₹51.93 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of ₹128.42. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, TVSSCS trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹128.42, fair value ₹51.93, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TVSSCS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹128.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹51.93). For TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited the two are ₹76.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited worth?
The market values TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited at about ₹56.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is ₹128.42; our models calculate a fair value of ₹51.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TVSSCS?
Our models span a range for TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited: cautious scenario ₹44.59, base ₹51.93, optimistic ₹67.99 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price ₹128.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TVSSCS?
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 87.4 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹51.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
Balance-sheet figures for TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 6.0%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TVSSCS from its 52-week high?
TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited trades at ₹128.42, about 9% below its 52-week high of ₹141.66 and 41% above the low of ₹90.97 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹51.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price ₹128.42, calculated fair value ₹51.93 (−60%), Quality Score 50/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TVSSCS calculated?
We run TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹51.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹128.42. Our model-based fair value is ₹51.93, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹67.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
The market capitalisation of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is ₹56.7B (≈ $588M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is 0.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
Earnings per share at TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited are ₹1.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 87.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
The net margin of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is 1.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
The operating margin of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
Revenue at TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is growing +28.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS)?
Earnings per share at TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited are growing −70.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited (TVSSCS) carry?
The net debt of TVS Supply Chain Solutions Limited is ₹20.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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