Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd A$8.81, price A$5.41, upside +62.9%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.37 – A$13.21 · fair‑value band A$5.34 – A$11.84 · the A$5.41 price screens below the A$8.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking, as well as marketing, sale, and distribution of wine.
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Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking, as well as marketing, sale, and distribution of wine. Its wine portfolio includes brands, such as Penfolds, DAOU Vineyards, 19 Crimes, Drop of Sunshine, Frank Family Vineyards, Wolf Blass, St Hubert's The Stag, Matua, Lindeman's, Squealing Pig, Blossom Hill, Pepper Jack, Wynns, Seppelt, Beringer, Etude, Sterling Vineyards, Beaulieu Vineyard, Stags' Leap, Beringer Bros, and Castello di Gabbiano. The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties. In addition, it is involved in the sale of grape and bulk wine, as well as ownership and leasing of vineyards. The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retail chains, independent retailers, and on-premises outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) currently trades at A$5.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$8.81, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$9.11 per share, and 15 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$5.41 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$2.26, and 8 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$5.34 (bear) to A$11.84 (bull), the price of A$5.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd reported revenue of A$2.9B in FY2025 versus A$2.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$437M in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$4.4B (≈ $3.1B) · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.5400 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 14.9% · Return on equity −9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% · Operating margin −55.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 63%, TWE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$5.34Fair Value A$8.81Bull A$11.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −2.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 54% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.2% a year for the price and −9.6% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
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Is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$8.81 versus a price of A$5.41, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TWE?
Our model-based fair value for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is A$8.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$5.41.
What is the quality score of TWE?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$8.81 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$5.34, optimistic scenario A$11.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Treasury Wine Estates Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$8.81, about +63% upside versus a price of A$5.41 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$5.34, optimistic scenario A$11.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Treasury Wine Estates Ltd pay a dividend?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TWE use?
Our models discount Treasury Wine Estates Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Treasury Wine Estates Ltd that is +1.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd grew +1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +1.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (+1.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.81 %: that much free cash flow Treasury Wine Estates Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Treasury Wine Estates Ltd it is A$8.81 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$5.41. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TWE trades below its calculated fair value: price A$5.41, fair value A$8.81, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TWE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$5.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$8.81). For Treasury Wine Estates Ltd the two are A$3.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd worth?
The market values Treasury Wine Estates Ltd at about A$4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$5.41; our models calculate a fair value of A$8.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TWE?
Our models span a range for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd: cautious scenario A$5.34, base A$8.81, optimistic A$11.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$5.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TWE?
The PEG ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 3.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.9%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TWE from its 52-week high?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd trades at A$5.41, about 27% below its 52-week high of A$7.38 and 61% above the low of A$3.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$8.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Treasury Wine Estates Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$5.41, calculated fair value A$8.81 (+63%), Quality Score 49/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TWE calculated?
We run Treasury Wine Estates Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$8.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Treasury Wine Estates Ltd currently trades 63 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$5.41. Our model-based fair value is A$8.81, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Treasury Wine Estates Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$5.34 to A$11.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) come from?
Earnings per share at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd grew +7.4 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin +7.6 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The market capitalisation of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is A$4.4B (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 1.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Earnings per share at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd are A$−0.5400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The dividend yield of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 3.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The net margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 14.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is −9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The operating margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is −55.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Revenue at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is growing −16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Earnings per share at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd are growing +21.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) carry?
The net debt of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is A$1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026