Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$3.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from A$7.20 to A$7.30 (+1.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +20.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 34% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (A$5.20 to A$11.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.37 – A$13.21 · fair‑value band A$5.20 – A$11.08 · the A$5.43 price screens below the A$7.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) currently trades at A$5.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.30, implying the stock looks roughly 34.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Treasury Wine Estates Limited generated revenue of A$2.7B at a net margin of -15.9%. Revenue declined 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.9%. Net debt stands at A$1.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$5.20 (bear case) to A$11.08 (bull case); at A$5.43, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 34%, TWE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$9.11) versus Earnings-Based (A$2.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking, as well as marketing, sale, and distribution of wine.
Full company description
Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking, as well as marketing, sale, and distribution of wine. Its wine portfolio includes brands, such as Penfolds, DAOU Vineyards, 19 Crimes, Drop of Sunshine, Frank Family Vineyards, Wolf Blass, St Hubert's The Stag, Matua, Lindeman's, Squealing Pig, Blossom Hill, Pepper Jack, Wynns, Seppelt, Beringer, Etude, Sterling Vineyards, Beaulieu Vineyard, Stags' Leap, Beringer Bros, and Castello di Gabbiano. The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties. In addition, it is involved in the sale of grape and bulk wine, as well as ownership and leasing of vineyards. The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retail chains, independent retailers, and on-premises outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Treasury Wine Estates Limited reported revenue of A$2.9B in FY2025 versus A$2.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$437M in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
Watch TWE: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
Compare Treasury Wine Estates Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of TWE?
What is the quality score of TWE?
What is the revenue of Treasury Wine Estates Limited (TWE)?
What is the net profit margin of TWE?
Does Treasury Wine Estates Limited pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Treasury Wine Estates Limited and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.