Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd stock A$3.95, price A$6.35, that is 37.8% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.37 – A$13.21 · fair‑value band A$3.05 – A$6.17 · the A$6.35 price screens above the A$3.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Treasury Wine Estates Limited operates as a wine company in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company engages in the viticulture and winemaking, as well as marketing, sale, and distribution of wine.
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Its wine portfolio includes brands, such as Penfolds, DAOU Vineyards, 19 Crimes, Drop of Sunshine, Frank Family Vineyards, Wolf Blass, St Hubert's The Stag, Matua, Lindeman's, Squealing Pig, Blossom Hill, Pepper Jack, Wynns, Seppelt, Beringer, Etude, Sterling Vineyards, Beaulieu Vineyard, Stags' Leap, Beringer Bros, and Castello di Gabbiano.
The company also provides contract bottling services to third parties. In addition, it is involved in the sale of grape and bulk wine, as well as ownership and leasing of vineyards.
The company markets and sells its products to distributors, wholesalers, retail chains, independent retailers, and on-premises outlets, as well as directly to consumers. Treasury Wine Estates Limited was founded in 1843 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) currently trades at A$6.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.95, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$7.04 per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$6.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.90, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$3.05 (bear) to A$6.17 (bull), the price of A$6.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd reported revenue of A$2.6B in FY2026 versus A$2.5B in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.1B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$5.1B (≈ $3.5B) Mid · P/E ex one-offs 18.6 · P/S ratio 1.79 · EPS (TTM) A$−1.33 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin −41.0% · Return on equity −26.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −38%, TWE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$3.05Fair Value A$3.95BullA$6.17
Price A$6.35 · Downside -37.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
23.2% (2021) → 16.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.2% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The leaner regional model supports targeted cost savings in priority markets, yet thin evidence on moat durability and high leverage limit signs of lasting strength.
Main risk: Stalling growth in core labels would expose the narrower portfolio and leaner structure, directly pressuring margins given limited moat signals and high leverage.
Treasury Wine Estates is moving to a regional operating model and cutting corporate roles as part of its Ascent program to simplify the business and target substantial cost savings. It is also recruiting commercial positions to support priority brands in markets like China and Australia. Will the narrower portfolio and leaner structure deliver lasting margin gains or leave the company exposed if growth in its core labels stalls?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 91 stocks
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Is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.95 versus a price of A$6.35, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TWE?
Our model-based fair value for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is A$3.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.35.
What is the quality score of TWE?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.05, optimistic scenario A$6.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Treasury Wine Estates Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.95, about 38% lower versus a price of A$6.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$3.05, optimistic scenario A$6.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Treasury Wine Estates Ltd pay a dividend?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.2 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 27, 2025. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.49 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +33.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TWE use?
Our models discount Treasury Wine Estates Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Treasury Wine Estates Ltd that is +33.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd grew -0.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +33.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (+33.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.55 %: that much free cash flow Treasury Wine Estates Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Treasury Wine Estates Ltd it is A$3.95 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$6.35. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TWE trades above its calculated fair value: price A$6.35, fair value A$3.95, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TWE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.95). For Treasury Wine Estates Ltd the two are A$2.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd worth?
The market values Treasury Wine Estates Ltd at about A$5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$6.35; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TWE?
Our models span a range for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.05, base A$3.95, optimistic A$6.17 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$6.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TWE?
The PEG ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 3.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −26.5%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TWE from its 52-week high?
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd trades at A$6.35, at its 52-week high of A$6.35 and 88% above the low of A$3.37 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Treasury Wine Estates Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Treasury Wine Estates Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$6.35, calculated fair value A$3.95 (−38%), Quality Score 38/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TWE calculated?
We run Treasury Wine Estates Ltd through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$3.95 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Treasury Wine Estates Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$6.35. Our model-based fair value is A$3.95, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Treasury Wine Estates Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$6.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$3.05 to A$6.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) come from?
Earnings per share at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd grew +3.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin +4.6 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The market capitalisation of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is A$5.1B (≈ $3.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 18.6 (fiscal year 2026, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 31.6 (10 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 1.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Earnings per share at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd are A$−1.33. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The dividend yield of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 3.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The net margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is −41.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is −26.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
The operating margin of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is −19.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Revenue at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is growing −7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE)?
Earnings per share at Treasury Wine Estates Ltd are growing +21.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (TWE) carry?
The net debt of Treasury Wine Estates Ltd is A$1.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 22.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026