Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ternium Argentina SA stock ARS 440, price ARS 699, that is 37.0% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 66.20 ARS – 1,101 ARS · fair‑value band 267.30 ARS – 703.91 ARS · the 698.50 ARS price screens above the 440.29 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Ternium Argentina S.A. manufactures, produces, and processes steel products in South America, North America, Europe, and internationally.
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The company offers its products in flat steel, coated steel, welded tubes, various shapes, long steel, galvanized sheet, electro zinc, prepainted, cincalum, slabs, cast iron ingots, and over rolling categories.
It serves construction, automotive, home appliances, agro, packaging, transport, and energy industries. The company was formerly known as Siderar S.A.I.C. Ternium Argentina S.A. Ternium Argentina S.A. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Ternium Argentina S.A. is a subsidiary of Ternium Internacional España S.L.U.
Stock analysis
Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) currently trades at 698.50 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 440.29 ARS, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 574.77 ARS per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the 698.50 ARS price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 313.95 ARS, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 267.30 ARS (bear) to 703.91 ARS (bull), the price of 698.50 ARS sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ternium Argentina SA reported revenue of 2.5T ARS in FY2025 versus 328B ARS in FY2021, a compound +66.5%/yr. Reported net income was 83.4B ARS in FY2025, compounding −11.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.2T ARS (≈ $2.0B) Mid · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.18 · EPS (TTM) 132.22 ARS · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −37%, TXAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear267.30 ARSFair Value 440.29 ARSBull703.91 ARS
Price 698.50 ARS · Downside -37.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (89.56 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+80.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ARS ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ARS: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+38.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about +14.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Above median
Fair Value upside−37.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)13.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)25.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)5.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.13× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)22.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)79· sector 51
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ternium Argentina SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TXAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 440.29 ARS versus a price of 698.50 ARS, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXAR?
Our model-based fair value for Ternium Argentina SA is 440.29 ARS (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 698.50 ARS.
What is the quality score of TXAR?
Ternium Argentina SA has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 440.29 ARS (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 267.30 ARS, optimistic scenario 703.91 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ternium Argentina SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 440.29 ARS, about 37% lower versus a price of 698.50 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 267.30 ARS, optimistic scenario 703.91 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Ternium Argentina SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8T ARS (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Ternium Argentina SA pay a dividend?
Ternium Argentina SA currently shows a dividend yield of 3.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Ternium Argentina SA pays a dividend of 27.44 ARS per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 7, 2026. The payout ratio is 20.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.12 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ternium Argentina SA would have to grow free cash flow by +30.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 19.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +80.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TXAR use?
Our models discount Ternium Argentina SA at 19.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ternium Argentina SA that is +30.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (19.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ternium Argentina SA grew +80.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +30.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ternium Argentina SA (+30.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.42 %: that much free cash flow Ternium Argentina SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (19.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ternium Argentina SA it is 440.29 ARS per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 698.50 ARS. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Ternium Argentina SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TXAR trades above its calculated fair value: price 698.50 ARS, fair value 440.29 ARS, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (698.50 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (440.29 ARS). For Ternium Argentina SA the two are 258.21 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ternium Argentina SA worth?
The market values Ternium Argentina SA at about 3.2T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 698.50 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 440.29 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXAR?
Our models span a range for Ternium Argentina SA: cautious scenario 267.30 ARS, base 440.29 ARS, optimistic 703.91 ARS per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 698.50 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXAR?
Ternium Argentina SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 440.29 ARS is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.7. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ternium Argentina SA (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXAR from its 52-week high?
Ternium Argentina SA trades at 698.50 ARS, about 16% below its 52-week high of 834.66 ARS and 24% above the low of 561.57 ARS (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 440.29 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ternium Argentina SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ternium Argentina SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 698.50 ARS, calculated fair value 440.29 ARS (−37%), Quality Score 50/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXAR calculated?
We run Ternium Argentina SA through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 440.29 ARS builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ternium Argentina SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 698.50 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 440.29 ARS, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ternium Argentina SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide (267.30 ARS to 703.91 ARS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Ternium Argentina SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The market capitalisation of Ternium Argentina SA is 3.2T ARS (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ternium Argentina SA is 0.18 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Earnings per share at Ternium Argentina SA are 132.22 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The dividend yield of Ternium Argentina SA is 3.9% (payout 20.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The net margin of Ternium Argentina SA is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ternium Argentina SA is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ternium Argentina SA is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The operating margin of Ternium Argentina SA is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Revenue at Ternium Argentina SA is growing +25.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +71.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Earnings per share at Ternium Argentina SA are growing +596% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) carry?
The net debt of Ternium Argentina SA is 138B ARS (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026