Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ternium Argentina SA ARS 368, price ARS 660, upside -44.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Ternium Argentina SA for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 41.28 ARS – 1,101 ARS · fair‑value band 276.29 ARS – 523.87 ARS · the 660.00 ARS price screens above the 367.89 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Follow Ternium Argentina in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Ternium Argentina is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Ternium Argentina S.A. manufactures, produces, and processes steel products in South America, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers its products in flat steel, coated steel, welded tubes, various shapes, long steel, galvanized sheet, electro zinc, prepainted, cincalum, slabs, cast iron ingots, and over rolling categories.
Show more
Ternium Argentina S.A. manufactures, produces, and processes steel products in South America, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers its products in flat steel, coated steel, welded tubes, various shapes, long steel, galvanized sheet, electro zinc, prepainted, cincalum, slabs, cast iron ingots, and over rolling categories. It serves construction, automotive, home appliances, agro, packaging, transport, and energy industries. The company was formerly known as Siderar S.A.I.C. Ternium Argentina S.A. Ternium Argentina S.A. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Ternium Argentina S.A. is a subsidiary of Ternium Internacional España S.L.U.
Stock analysis
Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) currently trades at 660.00 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 367.89 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 79.4% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 1,011 ARS per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the 660.00 ARS price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 123.08 ARS, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 276.29 ARS (bear) to 523.87 ARS (bull), the price of 660.00 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Ternium Argentina SA reported revenue of 2.5T ARS in FY2025 versus 328B ARS in FY2021, a compound +66.5%/yr. Reported net income was 83.4B ARS in FY2025, compounding −11.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0T ARS (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) 55.47 ARS · Net margin 3.3% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3% · Operating margin 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −44%, TXAR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 276.29 ARSFair Value 367.89 ARSBull 523.87 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (40.58 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+80.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+68.8%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ARS ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ARS: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+34.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Argentina: IMF forecast 13.8% a year to 2030) that is about +12.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 412 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.44× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.13× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 18
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 2
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 49
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ternium Argentina SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TXAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 367.89 ARS versus a price of 660.00 ARS, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXAR?
Our model-based fair value for Ternium Argentina SA is 367.89 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 660.00 ARS.
What is the quality score of TXAR?
Ternium Argentina SA has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 367.89 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 276.29 ARS, optimistic scenario 523.87 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ternium Argentina SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 367.89 ARS, about −44% upside versus a price of 660.00 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 276.29 ARS, optimistic scenario 523.87 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Ternium Argentina SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6T ARS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ternium Argentina SA would have to grow free cash flow by +27.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 18.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +80.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TXAR use?
Our models discount Ternium Argentina SA at 18.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), country premium for Argentina. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ternium Argentina SA that is +27.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (18.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ternium Argentina SA grew +80.3 % a year. The price currently implies +27.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ternium Argentina SA (+27.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.67 %: that much free cash flow Ternium Argentina SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (18.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ternium Argentina SA it is 367.89 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 660.00 ARS. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ternium Argentina SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TXAR trades above its calculated fair value: price 660.00 ARS, fair value 367.89 ARS, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (660.00 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (367.89 ARS). For Ternium Argentina SA the two are 292.11 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ternium Argentina SA worth?
The market values Ternium Argentina SA at about 3.0T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 660.00 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 367.89 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXAR?
Our models span a range for Ternium Argentina SA: cautious scenario 276.29 ARS, base 367.89 ARS, optimistic 523.87 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 660.00 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXAR?
Ternium Argentina SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 367.89 ARS is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ternium Argentina SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXAR from its 52-week high?
Ternium Argentina SA trades at 660.00 ARS, about 21% below its 52-week high of 834.66 ARS and 24% above the low of 533.20 ARS (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 367.89 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ternium Argentina SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, Tata Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ternium Argentina SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 660.00 ARS, calculated fair value 367.89 ARS (−44%), Quality Score 47/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXAR calculated?
We run Ternium Argentina SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 367.89 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ternium Argentina SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 660.00 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 367.89 ARS, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ternium Argentina SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (523.87 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (276.29 ARS to 523.87 ARS) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ternium Argentina SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The market capitalisation of Ternium Argentina SA is 3.0T ARS (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ternium Argentina SA is 0.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Earnings per share at Ternium Argentina SA are 55.47 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The net margin of Ternium Argentina SA is 3.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ternium Argentina SA is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ternium Argentina SA is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
The operating margin of Ternium Argentina SA is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Revenue at Ternium Argentina SA is growing +24.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +71.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR)?
Earnings per share at Ternium Argentina SA are growing +460% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ternium Argentina SA (TXAR) carry?
The net debt of Ternium Argentina SA is 138B ARS (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Ternium Argentina SA in the live analysis
One click puts Ternium Argentina SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
