Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tyler Technologies Inc stock $432, price $430, upside +0.3%, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $275.27 – $646.74 · fair‑value band $323.68 – $539.46 · the $430.37 price screens below the $431.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Tyler Technologies, Inc. provides integrated software and technology management solutions for the public sector in the United States. It operates in two segments, Enterprise Software and Platform Technologies.
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The company designs, develops, markets, and supports a range of software solutions to serve mission-critical back-office functions.
It also offers platform and transformative technology solutions, such as cybersecurity, data and insights, digital solutions, payments, platform technologies, and outdoor recreation; public administration solutions, including civic services, ERP, property and recording, and regulatory; and corrections, courts and justice, and public safety solutions.
In addition, the company provides school ERP and student transportation K-12 education solutions; and health and human services solutions comprising environmental health, and disability and benefits. It has a strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services for cloud hosting services.
The company was formerly known as Tyler Corporation and changed its name to Tyler Technologies, Inc. in June 1999. Tyler Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1966 and is based in Plano, Texas.
Stock analysis
Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) currently trades at $430.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $431.56, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $310.98 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $430.37 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $83.16, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $323.68 (bear) to $539.46 (bull), the price of $430.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tyler Technologies Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $316M in FY2025, compounding +18.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.0B Large · P/E ratio 56.6 · P/S ratio 7.41 · EPS (TTM) $7.60 · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% · Operating margin 14.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 0%, TYL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$323.68Fair Value $431.56Bull$539.46
Price $430.37 · Upside +0.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $10.7M and none bought.
SaleDaniel M PopeDirector2× since Mar 2, 2026: 1,180 shares, avg. $385.46$454,841Nov 2, 2026
SaleH Lynn Moore JrPresident and CEO, Director2× since Aug 28, 2026: 19,250 shares, avg. $383.38$7.4MOct 30, 2026
SaleJeffrey David PuckettChief Operating Officer2× since Mar 5, 2026: 13,674 shares, avg. $361.54$4.9MAug 24, 2026
SaleGlenn A CarterDirector2× since Dec 12, 2025: 2,124 shares, avg. $374.94$796,368Mar 12, 2026
BuyAndrew D. TeedDirector1,600 shares at $309.91$495,856Feb 23, 2026
BuyAbigail Marshall Diaz-PedrosaChief Administrative Officer610 shares at $325.08$198,299Feb 20, 2026
SaleBrian K MillerExecutive VP and CFO3× since Nov 25, 2025: 3,000 shares, avg. $458.75$1.4MDec 15, 2025
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.7% a year
Revenue growth 37 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13.5% vs 15.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Tyler benefits from decades of embedding its software in state operations with a shift toward transaction services but is limited by thin public disclosures and only moderate returns on equity and assets.
Main risk: Lawsuits such as the North Carolina eCourts case could lead to settlements, higher legal costs or contract losses that hit margins in the justice and public safety segments.
Bull case: Tyler could strengthen its embedded AI features in court systems to reduce errors and demonstrate reliability, thereby winning more contracts and deepening customer lock-in.
Bear case: Repeated software failures in critical justice applications could trigger more lawsuits, contract terminations and stricter procurement rules that limit Tyler's access to government clients.
Tyler has spent more than two decades embedding its software in state operations, and the recent South Carolina DMV electronic titling rollout shows how transaction-based services are becoming a larger part of the mix. New leadership roles in AI and transactions underscore the push to scale both efficiency tools and payment volumes. Will these elements deliver faster recurring revenue growth than the ongoing shift from on-premise licenses creates headwinds?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 632 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+0.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.7% · Above median
Return on assets5.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.2% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)56.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.86× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.41× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)28.3× · Pricier than median
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Is Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $431.56 versus a price of $430.37, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TYL?
Our model-based fair value for Tyler Technologies Inc is $431.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $430.37.
What is the quality score of TYL?
Tyler Technologies Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $431.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $323.68, optimistic scenario $539.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tyler Technologies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $431.56, about +0% upside versus a price of $430.37 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $323.68, optimistic scenario $539.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
Tyler Technologies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tyler Technologies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TYL use?
Our models discount Tyler Technologies Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tyler Technologies Inc that is +13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tyler Technologies Inc grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies +13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tyler Technologies Inc (+13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.54 %: that much free cash flow Tyler Technologies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tyler Technologies Inc it is $431.56 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $430.37. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tyler Technologies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TYL trades below its calculated fair value: price $430.37, fair value $431.56, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TYL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($430.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($431.56). For Tyler Technologies Inc the two are $1.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tyler Technologies Inc worth?
The market values Tyler Technologies Inc at about $18.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $430.37; our models calculate a fair value of $431.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TYL?
Our models span a range for Tyler Technologies Inc: cautious scenario $323.68, base $431.56, optimistic $539.46 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $430.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TYL?
Tyler Technologies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $431.56 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 82.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 4.9, P/S 7.4, EV/EBITDA 37.1.
What is the PEG ratio of TYL?
The PEG ratio of Tyler Technologies Inc is 1.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tyler Technologies Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TYL from its 52-week high?
Tyler Technologies Inc trades at $430.37, about 9% below its 52-week high of $472.77 and 56% above the low of $275.27 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $431.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tyler Technologies Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Salesforce, Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tyler Technologies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $430.37, calculated fair value $431.56 (+0%), Quality Score 76/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TYL calculated?
We run Tyler Technologies Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $431.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Tyler Technologies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $430.37. Our model-based fair value is $431.56, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tyler Technologies Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) come from?
Earnings per share at Tyler Technologies Inc grew +11.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tyler Technologies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
The market capitalisation of Tyler Technologies Inc is $18.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tyler Technologies Inc is 7.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
Earnings per share at Tyler Technologies Inc are $7.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
The net margin of Tyler Technologies Inc is 13.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tyler Technologies Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tyler Technologies Inc is 5.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
The operating margin of Tyler Technologies Inc is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
Revenue at Tyler Technologies Inc is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL)?
Earnings per share at Tyler Technologies Inc are growing +15.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) hold?
Tyler Technologies Inc holds more cash than debt, $339M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026