Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Frontier Group Holdings Inc $1.35, price $6.20, upside -78.2%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US35909R1086

Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Frontier Group Holdings Inc

ULCC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $1.35 · Strongly overvalued (−78%)

!Quality 29/100

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +24.4 %/yr)

!Loss-making · -9.6% net margin (TTM)

!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow

!Trails peers (2/10)

!Narrow moat 9/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $1.01 to bull $2.02 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 29/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.84 – $19.10 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $2.02 · the $6.20 price screens above the $1.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. The company sells its products through direct distribution channels, such as websites, mobile apps, and contact centers. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft.

Stock analysis

Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) currently trades at $6.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.35, implying the stock looks roughly 359.3% overvalued today.

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.01 (bear) to $2.02 (bull), the price of $6.20 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Frontier Group Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$137M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) $−1.59 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −92.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% · Operating margin −33.3% · Revenue (TTM) $3.8B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at −78%, ULCC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.01 Fair Value $1.35 Bull $2.02

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

NCAV (Graham) $1.07 $1.43 $2.14 54

All 1 models by family

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $1.07 $1.43 $2.14 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 16

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 7

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 33

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 17

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 70

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 0

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 61

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 63

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 63

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

−1.4%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+3.8%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+24.4%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year

Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.0%

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

−29.2% (2020) → −4.0% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

ULCC screens 359% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

Compare Frontier Group Holdings Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 56 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%

Profitability

Return on assets −6% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) −10% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) −33% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 9% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.64× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.39× · Priciest 25%

P/S (TTM) 0.44× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 47

FUTURE (revenue growth)44 · sector 51

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 48

HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 67

DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL	$83.92	$121.89	+45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL	$115.21	$149.86	+30%
Ryanair Holdings RYA	€23.46	€48.53	+107%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV	$42.08	$14.76	−65%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO	₹5,030	₹3,073	−39%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L	6.57 SGD	7.89 SGD	+20%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM	$53.45	$106.79	+100%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029	¥4.96	¥2.78	−44%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA	€7.88	€9.90	+26%
American Airlines Group AAL	$13.61	$3.52	−74%

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Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$1.35 −359%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULCC" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Frontier Group Holdings Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$1.35</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−359%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Frontier Group Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULCC

Frequently asked questions

Is Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.35 versus a price of $6.20, about −78% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of ULCC?

Our model-based fair value for Frontier Group Holdings Inc is $1.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.20.

What is the quality score of ULCC?

Frontier Group Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.35 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $2.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Frontier Group Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $1.35, about −78% upside versus a price of $6.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $2.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

Frontier Group Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Frontier Group Holdings Inc it is $1.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.20. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Frontier Group Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, ULCC trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.20, fair value $1.35, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of ULCC?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.35). For Frontier Group Holdings Inc the two are $4.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Frontier Group Holdings Inc worth?

The market values Frontier Group Holdings Inc at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.20; our models calculate a fair value of $1.35 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ULCC?

Our models span a range for Frontier Group Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $1.01, base $1.35, optimistic $2.02 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How solid is the balance sheet of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

Balance-sheet figures for Frontier Group Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −92.4%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is ULCC from its 52-week high?

Frontier Group Holdings Inc trades at $6.20, about 18% below its 52-week high of $7.54 and 105% above the low of $3.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.35 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Frontier Group Holdings Inc?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Frontier Group Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.20, calculated fair value $1.35 (−78%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of ULCC calculated?

We run Frontier Group Holdings Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Frontier Group Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $6.20. Our model-based fair value is $1.35, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Frontier Group Holdings Inc right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.01 to $2.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Frontier Group Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

The market capitalisation of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

Earnings per share at Frontier Group Holdings Inc are $−1.59. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

The net margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −92.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

The operating margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −33.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

Revenue at Frontier Group Holdings Inc is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?

Earnings per share at Frontier Group Holdings Inc are growing +1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) generate?

The free cash flow of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −$624M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) carry?

The net debt of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is $4.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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