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Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Frontier Group Holdings Inc stock $5.85, price $8.09, that is 27.7% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials US

FG Frontier Group Holdings Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Frontier Group Holdings Inc

ULCC · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 28% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +53% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +24.4 %/yr in USD)
Moderate debt
Insiders sold $3.6M (6M)
Fair value $5.85 · Overvalued
Quality 32/100
Loss-making · -8.9% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 12/100
Negative coverage
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$17.44 $2.84 Fair Value $5.85 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.84 – $17.44 · fair‑value band $4.39 – $7.31 · the $8.09 price screens above the $5.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., provides low-fare passenger airline services to leisure travelers in the United States and Latin America. The company sells its products through direct distribution channels, such as websites, mobile apps, and contact centers.

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As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 176 Airbus single-aisle aircraft. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Stock analysis

Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) currently trades at $8.09, while our estimate is $5.85, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $4.39 (bear) to $7.31 (bull), the price of $8.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Frontier Group Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.7B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$137M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.9B Small · P/S ratio 0.35 · EPS (TTM) $−1.79 · Net margin −8.9% · Return on equity −175% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.2% · Revenue (TTM) $4.6B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 161% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −28%, ULCC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $4.39 Fair Value $5.85 Bull $7.31
Price $8.09 · Downside -27.7%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 16
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 7
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 17
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 70
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 92
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 98
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 73
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.6M and none bought.

  • SaleJosh A WetzelVP & CAO3× since May 21, 2026: 27,500 shares, avg. $6.13$168,625Nov 9, 2026
  • SaleTrevor J. StedkeSr. Vice President, Operations3× since May 7, 2026: 284,567 shares, avg. $7.18$2.0MNov 6, 2026
  • SaleRobert SchroeterSVP, Chief Marketing Officer37,914 shares at $6.92$262,429Nov 5, 2026
  • SaleAlexandre ClercSVP, Customers4× since Jun 2, 2026: 24,270 shares, avg. $6.81$165,167Nov 5, 2026
  • SaleSteve SchullerSVP, Human Resources5× since Dec 10, 2025: 37,500 shares, avg. $6.41$240,500Sep 4, 2026
  • SaleMark Christopher MitchellSVP & CFO125,000 shares at $8.09$1.0MAug 5, 2026
  • SaleHoward DiamondEVP, Legal & Corporate Affairs24,195 shares at $8.25$199,609Aug 4, 2026
  • SaleGroup Holdings - Frontier LLC10% owner11,700,000 shares at $7.20$84.2MJul 9, 2026
  • SaleBarry BiffleCEO, Director2× since Dec 4, 2025: 300,000 shares, avg. $5.47$1.6MDec 11, 202510b5-1 plan

Plus 20 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.8% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−29.2% (2020) → −4.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ULCC screens overvalued: fair value 28% below the price. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

Compare Frontier Group Holdings Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −27.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −8.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 52.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.64× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.79× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.40× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 79
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)68 · sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 44

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,430 ₹11,831 +118% vs ULCC
Ryanair Holdings RYA €26.61 €36.70 +38% vs ULCC
United Airlines Holdings UAL $120.56 $148.87 +23% vs ULCC
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €8.80 €10.00 +14% vs ULCC
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.14 SGD 7.88 SGD +10% vs ULCC
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $92.20 $100.66 +9% vs ULCC
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $49.98 $37.62 −25% vs ULCC
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 HK$15.59 HK$11.32 −27% vs ULCC
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥5.29 ¥3.44 −35% vs ULCC
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $46.32 $22.81 −51% vs ULCC

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Frontier Group Holdings Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Frontier Group Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULCC

Frequently asked questions

Is Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $5.85 versus a price of $8.09, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ULCC?
Our estimate for Frontier Group Holdings Inc is $5.85 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.09.
What is the quality score of ULCC?
Frontier Group Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $5.85 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $4.39, optimistic scenario $7.31. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Frontier Group Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $5.85, about 28% lower versus a price of $8.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.39, optimistic scenario $7.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
Frontier Group Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Frontier Group Holdings Inc it is $5.85 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $8.09.
Is Frontier Group Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, ULCC trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.09, fair value $5.85, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ULCC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.85). For Frontier Group Holdings Inc the two are $2.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Frontier Group Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Frontier Group Holdings Inc at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $8.09; our models calculate a fair value of $5.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ULCC?
Our models span a range for Frontier Group Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $4.39, base $5.85, optimistic $7.31 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $8.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Frontier Group Holdings Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −175.4%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ULCC from its 52-week high?
Frontier Group Holdings Inc trades at $8.09, about 3% below its 52-week high of $8.35 and 161% above the low of $3.10 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Frontier Group Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Frontier Group Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $8.09, calculated fair value $5.85 (−28%), Quality Score 32/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Frontier Group Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $8.09. Our estimate is $5.85, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Frontier Group Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Frontier Group Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
The market capitalisation of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is 0.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Group Holdings Inc are $−1.79. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
The net margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −8.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −175% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
The operating margin of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
Revenue at Frontier Group Holdings Inc is growing +52.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC)?
Earnings per share at Frontier Group Holdings Inc are growing +1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) generate?
The free cash flow of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is −$624M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) carry?
The net debt of Frontier Group Holdings Inc is $4.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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