Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk IDR 2,356, price IDR 2,060, upside +14.4%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,157 IDR – 2,110 IDR · fair‑value band 1,541 IDR – 3,018 IDR · the 2,060 IDR price screens below the 2,356 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the food and beverage industry in Indonesia. The company operates in two segments: Beverages and Foods.
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PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the food and beverage industry in Indonesia. The company operates in two segments: Beverages and Foods. It produces various beverages, such as milk, fruit juices, tea, traditional drinks, and health drinks; and sweetened condensed milk, powder milk, and tropical fruit juice concentrates. The company also offers milk products under the Ultra Milk, SUSU SEKOLAH, and Ultra Mimi brands; tea products under the Teh Kotak brands; health beverages under the Sari Kacang Ijo and Sari Asem Asli brands; and sweetened condensed milk under the Cap Sapi brands. In addition, it provides freight and other services; and air and water management services, as well as engages in agriculture, dairy farm, export and import, and trading activities, as well as warehousing and transport support activities. Further, the company produces powder milk. The company sells its products directly through retail outlets, food and beverages stores, kiosks, and its sales force; and through agents/distributors, minimarkets, supermarkets, and hypermarkets. PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Bandung, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ) currently trades at 2,060 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,356 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 2,434 IDR per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the 2,060 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 529.69 IDR, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,541 IDR (bear) to 3,018 IDR (bull), the price of 2,060 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk reported revenue of 8.8T IDR in FY2025 versus 6.6T IDR in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4T IDR in FY2025, compounding +1.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 21.4T IDR (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 14.4 · P/S ratio 2.22 · EPS (TTM) 143.03 IDR · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 14%, ULTJ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,541 IDRFair Value 2,356 IDRBull 3,018 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (104.63 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.5% a year for the price and +9.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+14% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Above median
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULTJ
Frequently asked questions
Is Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,356 IDR versus a price of 2,060 IDR, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ULTJ?
Our model-based fair value for Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 2,356 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,060 IDR.
What is the quality score of ULTJ?
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,356 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,541 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,018 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,356 IDR, about +14% upside versus a price of 2,060 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1,541 IDR, optimistic scenario 3,018 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.3T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk pay a dividend?
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +9.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ULTJ use?
Our models discount Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk that is +9.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +9.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (+9.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.69 %: that much free cash flow Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk it is 2,356 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,060 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ULTJ trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,060 IDR, fair value 2,356 IDR, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ULTJ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,060 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,356 IDR). For Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk the two are 296.20 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk worth?
The market values Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk at about 21.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,060 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,356 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ULTJ?
Our models span a range for Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk: cautious scenario 1,541 IDR, base 2,356 IDR, optimistic 3,018 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,060 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ULTJ?
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,356 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.6, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ULTJ from its 52-week high?
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk trades at 2,060 IDR, about 2% below its 52-week high of 2,110 IDR and 75% above the low of 1,177 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,356 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,060 IDR, calculated fair value 2,356 IDR (+14%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ULTJ calculated?
We run Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,356 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 2,060 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,356 IDR, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk right now?
A fairly wide model range (1,541 IDR to 3,018 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ) come from?
Earnings per share at Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk grew +11.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin +1.6 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The market capitalisation of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 21.4T IDR (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 2.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
Earnings per share at Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk are 143.03 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The dividend yield of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 3.4% (payout 48.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The net margin of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 15.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 18.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
The operating margin of Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
Revenue at Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk is growing +21.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ)?
Earnings per share at Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk are growing +35.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk (ULTJ) hold?
Ultra Jaya Milk Industry Tbk holds more cash than debt, 3.1T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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