PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company (ULTJ) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 14.2T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +11.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 65% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (1,931 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,157 IDR – 1,818 IDR · fair‑value band 1,931 IDR – 3,164 IDR · the 1,500 IDR price screens below the 2,474 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company (ULTJ) currently trades at 1,500 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,474 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 65.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company generated revenue of 9.3T IDR at a net margin of 16.0%. Revenue grew 21.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 3.1T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1,931 IDR (bear case) to 3,164 IDR (bull case); at 1,500 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 65%, ULTJ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (2,938 IDR) versus Asset-Based (529.69 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the food and beverage industry in Indonesia. The company operates in two segments: Beverages and Foods.
Full company description
PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the food and beverage industry in Indonesia. The company operates in two segments: Beverages and Foods. It produces various beverages, such as milk, fruit juices, tea, traditional drinks, and health drinks; and sweetened condensed milk, powder milk, and tropical fruit juice concentrates. The company also offers milk products under the Ultra Milk, SUSU SEKOLAH, and Ultra Mimi brands; tea products under the Teh Kotak brands; health beverages under the Sari Kacang Ijo and Sari Asem Asli brands; and sweetened condensed milk under the Cap Sapi brands. In addition, it provides freight and other services; and air and water management services, as well as engages in agriculture, dairy farm, export and import, and trading activities, as well as warehousing and transport support activities. Further, the company produces powder milk. The company sells its products directly through retail outlets, food and beverages stores, kiosks, and its sales force; and through agents/distributors, minimarkets, supermarkets, and hypermarkets. PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Bandung, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Company reported revenue of 8.8T IDR in FY2025 versus 6.6T IDR in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4T IDR in FY2025, compounding +1.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 91 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $87.05 | $36.57 | -58% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $139.02 | $106.91 | -23% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $97.50 | $35.82 | -63% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$41.44 | HK$30.72 | -26% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €85.41 | -7% |
| Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP | $31.25 | $30.99 | -1% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $102.04 | $106.45 | +4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €57.90 | €52.82 | -9% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹495.70 | ₹187.49 | -62% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥124.43 | ¥107.57 | -14% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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