Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vibra Energia S.A. BRL 36.86, price BRL 38.15, upside -3.4%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$9.20 – R$148.02 · fair‑value band R$27.64 – R$46.07 · the R$38.15 price screens above the R$36.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Vibra Energia S.A. manufactures, processes, distributes, trades in, transports, imports, and exports oil-based products, lubricants, and other fuels. It operates in Gas Station Network, B2B, and Renewable segments. The company markets petroleum-derived fuels, lubricants, vehicular natural gas, biofuels, and convenience products.
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Vibra Energia S.A. manufactures, processes, distributes, trades in, transports, imports, and exports oil-based products, lubricants, and other fuels. It operates in Gas Station Network, B2B, and Renewable segments. The company markets petroleum-derived fuels, lubricants, vehicular natural gas, biofuels, and convenience products. It also sells fuels and lubricants, and provides associated services to its consumer's market, as well as markets aviation products and services at Brazil's airport facilities. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is based in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3) currently trades at R$38.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$36.86, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of R$60.28 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$38.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$11.54, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$27.64 (bear) to R$46.07 (bull), the price of R$38.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Vibra Energia S.A. reported revenue of R$189B in FY2025 versus R$130B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was R$2.0B in FY2025, compounding −5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$46.0B (≈ $8.8B) · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 0.10 · EPS (TTM) R$4.04 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 22.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −3%, VBBR3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$27.64Fair Value R$36.86Bull R$46.07
Price R$38.15 · Upside -3.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$2.18 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Per share before 2025divided by the spin-off factor 1.0711
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.5% vs 7.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.6% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 205 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−3.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vibra Energia S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VBBR3
Frequently asked questions
Is Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$36.86 versus a price of R$38.15, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of VBBR3?
Our model-based fair value for Vibra Energia S.A. is R$36.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$38.15.
What is the quality score of VBBR3?
Vibra Energia S.A. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$36.86 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$27.64, optimistic scenario R$46.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vibra Energia S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$36.86, about −3% upside versus a price of R$38.15 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$27.64, optimistic scenario R$46.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
Vibra Energia S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$204B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Vibra Energia S.A. pay a dividend?
Vibra Energia S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Vibra Energia S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VBBR3 use?
Our models discount Vibra Energia S.A. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Vibra Energia S.A. that is +16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Vibra Energia S.A. grew +18.4 % a year. The price currently implies +16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Vibra Energia S.A. (+16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.02 %: that much free cash flow Vibra Energia S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vibra Energia S.A. it is R$36.86 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of R$38.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vibra Energia S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, VBBR3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$38.15, fair value R$36.86, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VBBR3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$38.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$36.86). For Vibra Energia S.A. the two are R$1.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vibra Energia S.A. worth?
The market values Vibra Energia S.A. at about R$46.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is R$38.15; our models calculate a fair value of R$36.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VBBR3?
Our models span a range for Vibra Energia S.A.: cautious scenario R$27.64, base R$36.86, optimistic R$46.07 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price R$38.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VBBR3?
Vibra Energia S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$36.86 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.2 (reported for FY2025: 21.8). Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vibra Energia S.A. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 22.6%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VBBR3 from its 52-week high?
Vibra Energia S.A. trades at R$38.15, about 5% below its 52-week high of R$39.97 and 90% above the low of R$20.08 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$36.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vibra Energia S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vibra Energia S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price R$38.15, calculated fair value R$36.86 (−3%), Quality Score 41/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VBBR3 calculated?
We run Vibra Energia S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$36.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Vibra Energia S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$38.15. Our model-based fair value is R$36.86, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vibra Energia S.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Vibra Energia S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The market capitalisation of Vibra Energia S.A. is R$46.0B (≈ $8.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Vibra Energia S.A. is 0.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
Earnings per share at Vibra Energia S.A. are R$4.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The dividend yield of Vibra Energia S.A. is 3.1% (payout 21.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 29.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The net margin of Vibra Energia S.A. is 1.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vibra Energia S.A. is 22.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vibra Energia S.A. is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
The operating margin of Vibra Energia S.A. is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
Revenue at Vibra Energia S.A. is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3)?
Earnings per share at Vibra Energia S.A. are growing +677% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Vibra Energia S.A. (VBBR3) carry?
The net debt of Vibra Energia S.A. is R$19.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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