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VBX Ltd (VBX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of VBX Ltd A$0.10, price A$0.69, upside -85.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000395808

VL Thin data Sep 24, 2026

VBX Ltd

VBX · AU

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value A$0.1000 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 62/100
!Weak Growth
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/4)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$1.10 A$0.3500 Fair Value A$0.1000 Jun 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

15‑month range A$0.3500 – A$1.10 · fair‑value band A$0.0700 – A$0.1300 · the A$0.6850 price screens above the A$0.1000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

VBX Limited engages in the exploration and evaluation of mineral resources in Australia. The company's flagship project is the Wuudagu Bauxite Project located in the north of Western Australia. VBX Limited was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Leederville, Australia.

Stock analysis

VBX Ltd (VBX) currently trades at A$0.6850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1000, implying the stock looks roughly 584.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0700 (bear) to A$0.1300 (bull), the price of A$0.6850 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

VBX Ltd reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$900 in FY2023. Reported net income was −A$2.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$70.6M (≈ $49.6M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1300 · Return on equity −982% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3,219% · Operating margin −7,629% · Revenue (TTM) A$110K · Free cash flow −A$2.4M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −85%, VBX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0700 Fair Value A$0.1000 Bull A$0.1300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.1000 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.1000 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 75
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 65
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 80
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

VBX screens 585% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 81 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/4 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −86% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.75× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 ¥17.10 ¥43.06 +152%
China Hongqiao Group 1378 HK$20.82 HK$56.98 +174%
Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO ₹1,004 ₹1,026 +2%
Aluminum Corporation 601600 ¥9.27 ¥12.58 +36%
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY kr 82.96 kr 58.10 −30%
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 7.60 MYR 8.36 MYR +10%
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 ¥26.95 ¥38.55 +43%
Alcoa Corporation AA $44.71 $40.18 −10%
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 ¥26.38 ¥32.01 +21%
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 ¥12.64 ¥34.83 +176%

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VBX Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1000 −585%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VBX Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VBX

Frequently asked questions

Is VBX Ltd (VBX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1000 versus a price of A$0.6850, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VBX?
Our model-based fair value for VBX Ltd is A$0.1000 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.6850.
What is the quality score of VBX?
VBX Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VBX Ltd (VBX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1000 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0700, optimistic scenario A$0.1300. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VBX Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1000, about −85% upside versus a price of A$0.6850 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0700, optimistic scenario A$0.1300. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
VBX Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$110K (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VBX Ltd it is A$0.1000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.6850. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VBX Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, VBX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.6850, fair value A$0.1000, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VBX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.6850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1000). For VBX Ltd the two are A$0.5850 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VBX Ltd worth?
The market values VBX Ltd at about A$70.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.6850; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VBX?
Our models span a range for VBX Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0700, base A$0.1000, optimistic A$0.1300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.6850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is VBX from its 52-week high?
VBX Ltd trades at A$0.6850, about 38% below its 52-week high of A$1.10 and 96% above the low of A$0.3500 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VBX Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Aluminum Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VBX Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.6850, calculated fair value A$0.1000 (−85%), Quality Score 62/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VBX calculated?
We run VBX Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. VBX Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.6850. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1000, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VBX Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0700 to A$0.1300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of VBX Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
The market capitalisation of VBX Ltd is A$70.6M (≈ $49.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
Earnings per share at VBX Ltd are A$−0.1300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VBX Ltd is −982% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VBX Ltd is −3,219% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VBX Ltd (VBX)?
The operating margin of VBX Ltd is −7,629% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much free cash flow does VBX Ltd (VBX) generate?
The free cash flow of VBX Ltd is −A$2.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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