VBX Limited (VBX) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$39.9M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from A$0.3100 to A$0.1000 (−67.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 81% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0700 to A$0.1300) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range A$0.3500 – A$1.10 · fair‑value band A$0.0700 – A$0.1300 · the A$0.5200 price screens above the A$0.1000 fair value. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
VBX Limited (VBX) currently trades at A$0.5200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1000, implying the stock looks roughly 80.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$110K. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0700 (bear case) to A$0.1300 (bull case); at A$0.5200, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at -81%, VBX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
VBX Limited engages in the exploration and evaluation of mineral resources in Australia. The company's flagship project is the Wuudagu Bauxite Project located in the north of Western Australia. VBX Limited was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Leederville, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2023 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
VBX Limited reported revenue of A$0 in FY2025 versus A$900 in FY2023. Reported net income was −A$2.5M in FY2025.
VBX screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Peer Group
Aluminum · 82 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Alcoa Corporation AAI | A$70.60 | A$49.53 | -30% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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