Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A. (VLRS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.1B
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.
VLRS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 25, 2026, revised from $8.63 to $13.07 (+51.5%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −3.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- A fairly wide model range ($8.29 to $17.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.59 – $22.84 · fair‑value band $8.29 – $17.84 · the $8.17 price screens below the $13.07 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A. (VLRS) currently trades at $8.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.07, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A. generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of -4.0%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -47.6%. Net debt stands at $3.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.29 (bear case) to $17.84 (bull case); at $8.17, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at 60%, VLRS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($85.90) versus Asset-Based ($1.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally.
Full company description
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 550 daily flights on routes connecting 44 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, 4 cities in Central America, and 2 cities in South America. It also offers travel agency, share administration trust, pre-delivery payments financing, aircraft administration trust, and loyalty program, as well as specialized and aeronautical technical services. The company leases 151 aircraft and 14 spare engines. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A. reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$104M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €8.57 | €15.42 | +80% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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