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Volaris (VLRS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Volaris $10.26, price $6.49, upside +58.0%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US21240E1055

V Volaris logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

Volaris

VLRS · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $10.26 · Strongly undervalued (+58.0%)
!Quality 41/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +123.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.0% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/9)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 16 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.84 $3.59 Fair Value $10.26 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.59 – $22.84 · fair‑value band $6.40 – $17.79 · the $6.49 price screens below the $10.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally.

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Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiary, Concesionaria Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.P.I. de C.V., provides air transportation services for passengers, cargo, and mail in Mexico and internationally. The company operates approximately 550 daily flights on routes connecting 44 cities in Mexico, 22 cities in the United States, 4 cities in Central America, and 2 cities in South America. It also offers travel agency, share administration trust, pre-delivery payments financing, aircraft administration trust, and loyalty program, as well as specialized and aeronautical technical services. The company leases 151 aircraft and 14 spare engines. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Stock analysis

Volaris (VLRS) currently trades at $6.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.26, implying the stock looks roughly 36.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $69.11 per share, and 13 of the 14 models we run sit above the $6.49 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.53, and 1 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $6.40 (bear) to $17.79 (bull), the price of $6.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Volaris reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$104M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.1B · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) $−2.60 · Net margin −3.4% · Return on equity −47.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin −2.8% · Revenue (TTM) $3.1B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 58%, VLRS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.40 Fair Value $10.26 Bull $17.79
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $124.86 $181.02 $348.86 75
EPV $8.92 $9.77 $10.47 74
Growth DCF $117.14 $200.50 $331.47 74
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $124.86 $181.02 $348.86 75
Owner Earnings $60.18 $121.80 $236.15 70
5Y Revenue Exit $47.75 $60.52 $85.62 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $86.25 $138.30 $239.86 70
10Y Revenue Exit $73.74 $112.76 $123.86 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $99.72 $188.38 $333.71 63
Earnings-Based
EPV $8.92 $9.77 $10.47 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $13.70 $17.36 $21.02 66
EV/EBITDA $66.89 $88.28 $109.67 67
EV/Revenue $10.56 $13.92 $17.27 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.14 $1.53 $2.29 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $117.14 $200.50 $331.47 74
Rev-Margin DCF $51.19 $69.11 $108.10 70
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $8.92 $9.77 $10.47 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 9
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+123.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +47.9% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.4% (2020) → 3.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside +63.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −4.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −2.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.68× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

PEG 13.48× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 50
FUTURE (revenue growth)68 · sector 73
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)16 · sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 49

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $84.13 $121.83 +45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $111.51 $149.61 +34%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €23.79 €48.63 +104%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $42.28 $14.74 −65%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹4,940 ₹3,073 −38%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 6.65 SGD 7.88 SGD +18%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.45 $106.79 +104%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥4.86 ¥2.78 −43%
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 HK$14.37 HK$31.02 +116%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.60 €9.90 +30%

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Volaris · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Volaris Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VLRS

Frequently asked questions

Is Volaris (VLRS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.26 versus a price of $6.49, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VLRS?
Our model-based fair value for Volaris is $10.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.49.
What is the quality score of VLRS?
Volaris has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Volaris (VLRS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.26 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.40, optimistic scenario $17.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Volaris stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.26, about +58% upside versus a price of $6.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.40, optimistic scenario $17.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Volaris (VLRS)?
Volaris reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Volaris (VLRS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Volaris it is $10.26 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $6.49. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Volaris stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, VLRS trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.49, fair value $10.26, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLRS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.26). For Volaris the two are $3.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Volaris worth?
The market values Volaris at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $6.49; our models calculate a fair value of $10.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLRS?
Our models span a range for Volaris: cautious scenario $6.40, base $10.26, optimistic $17.79 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $6.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of VLRS?
The PEG ratio of Volaris is 13.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Volaris (VLRS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Volaris (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −47.6%, debt of 1.68 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VLRS from its 52-week high?
Volaris trades at $6.49, about 39% below its 52-week high of $10.63 and 6% above the low of $6.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Volaris?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Volaris stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $6.49, calculated fair value $10.26 (+58%), Quality Score 41/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLRS calculated?
We run Volaris through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Volaris currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Volaris (VLRS)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.49. Our model-based fair value is $10.26, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Volaris right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($6.40 to $17.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Volaris (VLRS) come from?
Earnings per share at Volaris grew +29.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +56.7 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −17.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Volaris

How large is the market capitalisation of Volaris (VLRS)?
The market capitalisation of Volaris is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Volaris (VLRS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Volaris is 0.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Volaris (VLRS)?
Earnings per share at Volaris are $−2.60. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Volaris (VLRS)?
The net margin of Volaris is −3.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Volaris (VLRS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Volaris is −47.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Volaris (VLRS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Volaris is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Volaris (VLRS)?
The operating margin of Volaris is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Volaris (VLRS)?
Revenue at Volaris is growing +13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Volaris (VLRS)?
Earnings per share at Volaris are growing −91.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Volaris (VLRS) generate?
The free cash flow of Volaris is $750M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Volaris (VLRS) carry?
The net debt of Volaris is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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