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Volvo Car AB (VLVOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Volvo Car AB $0.89, price $1.46, upside -39.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Volvo Car AB
VLVOF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.8900 · Strongly overvalued (−39.0%)
!Quality 42/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $1.46 – $10.02 · fair‑value band $0.8800 – $0.9000 · the $1.46 price screens above the $0.8900 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Volvo Car AB (publ.) designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells cars in Sweden and internationally. The company offers battery electric vehicles; non-battery electric vehicles, such as plug-in hybrid, mild hybrid, and internal combustion engine cars; and electrified cars, as well as SUV, estate, and saloon cars.
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Volvo Car AB (publ.) designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells cars in Sweden and internationally. The company offers battery electric vehicles; non-battery electric vehicles, such as plug-in hybrid, mild hybrid, and internal combustion engine cars; and electrified cars, as well as SUV, estate, and saloon cars. It also provides vehicle parts and accessories, as well as provides maintenance contracts, extended warranties, connectivity, and in-car software services. The company offers cars under the Volvo Cars, Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes, Tesla, and other brands name. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden. Volvo Car AB (publ.) operates as a subsidiary of Geely Sweden Holdings AB.
Stock analysis
Volvo Car AB (VLVOF) currently trades at $1.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8900, 39.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.04 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1.46 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $0.1200, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.8800 (bear) to $0.9000 (bull), the price of $1.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Volvo Car AB reported revenue of 356B SEK in FY2025 versus 282B SEK in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 174M SEK in FY2025, compounding −65.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.2B · P/E ratio 73.0 · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Dividend yield 13.7% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −2.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −39%, VLVOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.8800
Fair Value $0.8900
Bull $0.9000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0151 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.40
$8.02
$11.96
80
Growth DCF
$5.44
$7.71
$10.88
79
Owner Earnings
$1.51
$1.91
$2.52
78
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.40
$8.02
$11.96
80
Owner Earnings
$1.51
$1.91
$2.52
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.52
$2.82
$3.10
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$6.67
$10.73
$15.54
75
5Y P/E Exit
$2.49
$2.76
$2.99
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.54
$4.08
$4.66
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$6.15
$9.51
$14.12
68
10Y P/E Exit
$3.53
$4.04
$4.58
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.0400
$0.1400
$0.1800
65
Lynch FV
$0.0300
$0.0400
$0.0600
60
PEG = 1.0
$0.0300
$0.0400
$0.0600
56
EPV
$0.8700
$0.8800
$0.8900
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.1000
$0.1300
$0.1600
63
P/S Multiple
$0.0700
$0.1000
$0.1200
58
P/B Multiple
$0.0700
$0.1000
$0.1200
55
EV/EBIT
$1.01
$1.08
$1.15
66
EV/EBITDA
$8.16
$10.61
$13.06
67
EV/Revenue
$0.9400
$1.00
$1.06
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.46
$3.30
$4.93
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.44
$7.71
$10.88
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.52
$2.90
$3.38
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.22
$2.91
$2.74
71
ROIC Compounder
$0.8700
$0.8800
$0.8900
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.0800
$0.1200
$0.1500
68
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
42/100
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Profitability
29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
5
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
14
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
2
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
61/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−41.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−55.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−55.1% vs −71.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 28.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−34.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −35.3% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.6%
VLVOF screens overvalued: fair value 39% below the price. Compare with Tesla, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Accenture and Google Cloud Transform Software Development with Volvo Cars
- Volvo names Klaus Zellmer as next CEO amid turnaround push
- Volvo moves Stockholm staff, operations to Gothenburg headquarters
Compare Volvo Car AB with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 106 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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| BYD Company 002594 | ¥83.31 | ¥61.43 | −26% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.00 | $60.53 | −21% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $392.85 | $432.14 | +10% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 353,500 KRW | 362,081 KRW | +2% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $12.27 | $12.59 | +3% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.00 | €22.09 | −49% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €39.73 | €106.67 | +169% |
| Honda Motor Co HMC | $31.62 | $20.31 | −36% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Volvo Car AB (VLVOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8900 versus a price of $1.46, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VLVOF?
Our model-based fair value for Volvo Car AB is $0.8900 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.46.
What is the quality score of VLVOF?
Volvo Car AB has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8900 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.8800, optimistic scenario $0.9000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Volvo Car AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8900, about −39% upside versus a price of $1.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.8800, optimistic scenario $0.9000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
Volvo Car AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 375B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Volvo Car AB pay a dividend?
Volvo Car AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Volvo Car AB would have to grow free cash flow by -34.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VLVOF use?
Our models discount Volvo Car AB at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Volvo Car AB that is -34.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Volvo Car AB (VLVOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Volvo Car AB grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies -34.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Volvo Car AB (-34.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.02 %: that much free cash flow Volvo Car AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Volvo Car AB it is $0.8900 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Volvo Car AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VLVOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.46, fair value $0.8900, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VLVOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8900). For Volvo Car AB the two are $0.5700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Volvo Car AB worth?
The market values Volvo Car AB at about $6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.46; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8900 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VLVOF?
Our models span a range for Volvo Car AB: cautious scenario $0.8800, base $0.8900, optimistic $0.9000 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VLVOF?
Volvo Car AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 73.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.8900 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Volvo Car AB (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.2%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VLVOF from its 52-week high?
Volvo Car AB trades at $1.46, about 61% below its 52-week high of $3.70 and at the low of $1.46 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8900 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Volvo Car AB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, General Motors Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Volvo Car AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.46, calculated fair value $0.8900 (−39%), Quality Score 42/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VLVOF calculated?
We run Volvo Car AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8900, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Volvo Car AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.46. Our model-based fair value is $0.8900, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Volvo Car AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band ($0.8800 to $0.9000), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF) come from?
Earnings per share at Volvo Car AB grew −37.8 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −37.3 %, EBIT margin −4.3 %, tax rate −1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Volvo Car AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
The market capitalisation of Volvo Car AB is $6.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Volvo Car AB is 0.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
Earnings per share at Volvo Car AB are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 73.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
The dividend yield of Volvo Car AB is 13.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
The net margin of Volvo Car AB is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Volvo Car AB is −2.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Volvo Car AB is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
Revenue at Volvo Car AB is growing −12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Volvo Car AB (VLVOF)?
Earnings per share at Volvo Car AB are growing +35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Volvo Car AB (VLVOF) hold?
Volvo Car AB holds more cash than debt, 19.8B SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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