Volvo Car AB (VOLCAR-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 56.3B SEK (≈ $5.9B) · ISIN SE0021628898
What is Volvo Car AB really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 73% above our fair value of kr 10.90.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from kr 5.45 to kr 10.90 (+100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 17.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (kr 5.24 to kr 17.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range kr 16.17 – kr 84.45 · fair‑value band kr 5.24 – kr 17.32 · the kr 18.86 price screens above the kr 10.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Volvo Car AB (VOLCAR-B) currently trades at kr 18.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 10.90, implying the stock looks roughly 73.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 39.84 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the kr 18.86 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at kr 1.18, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Volvo Car AB generated revenue of 347B SEK at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue declined 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 19.8B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 5.24 (bear case) to kr 17.32 (bull case); at kr 18.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −42%, VOLCAR-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly kr 0.1359 per share, which is 1.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 39.84) versus Earnings-Based (kr 0.4500). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Volvo Car AB (publ.) designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells cars in Sweden and internationally. The company offers battery electric vehicles; non-battery electric vehicles, such as plug-in hybrid, mild hybrid, and internal combustion engine cars; and electrified cars, as well as SUV, estate, and saloon cars.
Full company description
Volvo Car AB (publ.) designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells cars in Sweden and internationally. The company offers battery electric vehicles; non-battery electric vehicles, such as plug-in hybrid, mild hybrid, and internal combustion engine cars; and electrified cars, as well as SUV, estate, and saloon cars. It also provides vehicle parts and accessories, as well as provides maintenance contracts, extended warranties, connectivity, and in-car software services. The company offers cars under the Volvo Cars, Audi, BMW, Lexus, Mercedes, Tesla, and other brands name. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden. Volvo Car AB (publ.) operates as a subsidiary of Geely Sweden Holdings AB.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Volvo Car AB reported revenue of 357B SEK in FY2025 versus 282B SEK in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was 174M SEK in FY2025, compounding −65.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.9 % · buybacks/dilution −43.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VOLCAR-B screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Volvo Cars expects turnaround despite ‘challenging environment’
- Volvo Cars (OM:VOLCAR B) Stock May Be 47% Undervalued As Q2 Profit Returns
- Volvo Cars posts Q2 profit as US shows signs of recovery, China remains weak
- Volvo Cars sees declining sales in 'challenging' environment
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $188.78 | $228.25 | +21% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | −37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.50 | €167.67 | −53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.27 | $52.69 | −39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $13.88 | $11.51 | −17% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €46.95 | €106.16 | +126% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | −61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹12,694 | ₹8,236 | −35% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €77.42 | €248.34 | +221% |
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