VSE Corporation (VSEC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of VSE Corporation $25.63, price $180, upside -85.8%, quality 29 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $25.63 · Strongly overvalued (−86%)
!Quality 29/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +10.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.22% dividend yield
!Trails peers(2/15)
!Narrow moat39/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.42 – $243.48 · fair‑value band $11.02 – $33.23 · the $180.44 price screens above the $25.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets.
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VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets. It offers its services to global client base of commercial airlines, regional airlines, air cargo transporters, MRO integrators and providers, aviation manufacturers, corporate and private aircraft owners, and fixed-base operators. The company was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.
Stock analysis
VSE Corporation (VSEC) currently trades at $180.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $25.63, implying the stock looks roughly 604.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $40.04 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $180.44 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.45, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $11.02 (bear) to $33.23 (bull), the price of $180.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
VSE Corporation reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $751M in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was $53.5M in FY2025, compounding +61.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B · P/E ratio 63.5 · P/S ratio 3.06 · EPS (TTM) $2.84 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 4.8% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −86%, VSEC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($4.45 to $68.72). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $11.02Fair Value $25.63Bull $33.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.79 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 1%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+25.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.3% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)63.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)4.85× · Pricier than median
P/FCF1,002.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA33.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.00× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VSE Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VSEC
Frequently asked questions
Is VSE Corporation (VSEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $25.63 versus a price of $180.44, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VSEC?
Our model-based fair value for VSE Corporation is $25.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $180.44.
What is the quality score of VSEC?
VSE Corporation has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $25.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $33.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VSE Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $25.63, about −86% upside versus a price of $180.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.02, optimistic scenario $33.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
VSE Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does VSE Corporation pay a dividend?
VSE Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VSE Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VSEC use?
Our models discount VSE Corporation at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VSE Corporation that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VSE Corporation (VSEC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VSE Corporation grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VSE Corporation (VSEC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VSE Corporation (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.15 %: that much free cash flow VSE Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VSE Corporation it is $25.63 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $180.44. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VSE Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VSEC trades above its calculated fair value: price $180.44, fair value $25.63, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VSEC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($180.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($25.63). For VSE Corporation the two are $154.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VSE Corporation worth?
The market values VSE Corporation at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $180.44; our models calculate a fair value of $25.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VSEC?
Our models span a range for VSE Corporation: cautious scenario $11.02, base $25.63, optimistic $33.23 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $180.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VSEC?
VSE Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 63.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $25.63 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 46.0 (reported for FY2025: 76.7). Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 4.0, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 33.0.
What is the PEG ratio of VSEC?
The PEG ratio of VSE Corporation is 3.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
Balance-sheet figures for VSE Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VSEC from its 52-week high?
VSE Corporation trades at $180.44, about 26% below its 52-week high of $243.48 and 17% above the low of $154.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $25.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VSE Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VSE Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $180.44, calculated fair value $25.63 (−86%), Quality Score 29/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VSEC calculated?
We run VSE Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $25.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. VSE Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $180.44. Our model-based fair value is $25.63, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VSE Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($33.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($11.02 to $33.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of VSE Corporation (VSEC) come from?
Earnings per share at VSE Corporation grew +0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.3 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of VSE Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The market capitalisation of VSE Corporation is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VSE Corporation is 3.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
Earnings per share at VSE Corporation are $2.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 63.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The dividend yield of VSE Corporation is 0.2% (payout 14.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The net margin of VSE Corporation is 4.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VSE Corporation is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VSE Corporation is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
The operating margin of VSE Corporation is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
Revenue at VSE Corporation is growing +26.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
Earnings per share at VSE Corporation are growing −7.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VSE Corporation (VSEC) carry?
The net debt of VSE Corporation is $273M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 47.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026