Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V MXN 50.87, price MXN 46.61, upside +9.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 45.18 MXN – 75.36 MXN · fair‑value band 33.41 MXN – 75.74 MXN · the 46.61 MXN price screens below the 50.87 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. owns and operates self-service stores in Mexico and Central America.
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Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. owns and operates self-service stores in Mexico and Central America. The company operates discount stores under the Bodega Aurrerá, Despensa Familiar, and Palí names; hypermarkets under the Walmart name; supermarkets under the Walmart Express, Paiz, La Despensa de Don Juan, La Unión, and Más x Menos names; and membership self-service wholesale stores under the Sam's Club name. It also offers mobile internet connectivity services, advertising services, and financial services through digital wallet, as well as sells airtime recharges and imports goods for resale. In addition, the company develops and manages real estate properties. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as a subsidiary of Intersalt, S. de R.L. de C.V.
Stock analysis
Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX) currently trades at 46.61 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 50.87 MXN, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 62.76 MXN per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the 46.61 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9.13 MXN, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 33.41 MXN (bear) to 75.74 MXN (bull), the price of 46.61 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 1.0T MXN in FY2025 versus 736B MXN in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 49.9B MXN in FY2025, compounding +3.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 807B MXN (≈ $45.6B) · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) 2.88 MXN · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 20.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 9%, WALMEX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 33.41 MXNFair Value 50.87 MXNBull 75.74 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.51 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 8%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.9% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 25 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+147.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.2% · Above median
Return on assets10.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.8% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WALMEX
Frequently asked questions
Is Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 50.87 MXN versus a price of 46.61 MXN, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WALMEX?
Our model-based fair value for Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 50.87 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 46.61 MXN.
What is the quality score of WALMEX?
Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 50.87 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 33.41 MXN, optimistic scenario 75.74 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 50.87 MXN, about +9% upside versus a price of 46.61 MXN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 33.41 MXN, optimistic scenario 75.74 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.0T MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WALMEX use?
Our models discount Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.03, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V that is +8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (+8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.39 %: that much free cash flow Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V it is 50.87 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 46.61 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WALMEX trades below its calculated fair value: price 46.61 MXN, fair value 50.87 MXN, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WALMEX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (46.61 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (50.87 MXN). For Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V the two are 4.26 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V at about 807B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 46.61 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 50.87 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WALMEX?
Our models span a range for Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 33.41 MXN, base 50.87 MXN, optimistic 75.74 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 46.61 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WALMEX?
Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 50.87 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 3.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.0.
What is the PEG ratio of WALMEX?
The PEG ratio of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 2.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WALMEX from its 52-week high?
Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V trades at 46.61 MXN, about 25% below its 52-week high of 62.21 MXN and 3% above the low of 45.18 MXN (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 50.87 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 46.61 MXN, calculated fair value 50.87 MXN (+9%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WALMEX calculated?
We run Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 50.87 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 46.61 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 50.87 MXN, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (33.41 MXN to 75.74 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The market capitalisation of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 807B MXN (≈ $45.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
Earnings per share at Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V are 2.88 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The dividend yield of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 1.8% (payout 29.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The net margin of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 16.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
The operating margin of Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
Revenue at Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V (WALMEX)?
Earnings per share at Wal-Mart de México S.A.B. de C.V are growing +1.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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