Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Warteck Invest Ltd CHF 830, price CHF 1,940, upside -57.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 1,528 – CHF 2,069 · fair‑value band CHF 516.94 – CHF 1,038 · the CHF 1,940 price screens above the CHF 830.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Warteck Invest AG engages in the rental of real estate properties in Switzerland. The company operates in residential properties, mixed-use properties, and development projects, as well as commercial properties, such as office and retail properties. Its portfolio consists of 57 properties in 11 cantons.
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Warteck Invest AG engages in the rental of real estate properties in Switzerland. The company operates in residential properties, mixed-use properties, and development projects, as well as commercial properties, such as office and retail properties. Its portfolio consists of 57 properties in 11 cantons. Warteck Invest AG was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN) currently trades at CHF 1,940, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 830.21, implying the stock looks roughly 133.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of CHF 1,462 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the CHF 1,940 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at CHF 196.36, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 516.94 (bear) to CHF 1,038 (bull), the price of CHF 1,940 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Warteck Invest Ltd reported revenue of CHF 46.5M in FY2025 versus CHF 36.1M in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 44.7M in FY2025, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 600M · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 12.9 · EPS (TTM) CHF 144.38 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 96.1% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −57%, WARN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 516.94Fair Value CHF 830.21Bull CHF 1,038
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 52.95 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.72% → 72%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 76% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 546 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−57% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)100% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)75% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.4× · Pricier than median
P/B1.35× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)16.36× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF32.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA29.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)1· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)34· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)74· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 830.21 versus a price of CHF 1,940, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WARN?
Our model-based fair value for Warteck Invest Ltd is CHF 830.21 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 1,940.
What is the quality score of WARN?
Warteck Invest Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 830.21 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 516.94, optimistic scenario CHF 1,038. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Warteck Invest Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 830.21, about −57% upside versus a price of CHF 1,940 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 516.94, optimistic scenario CHF 1,038. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
Warteck Invest Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 44.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Warteck Invest Ltd pay a dividend?
Warteck Invest Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Warteck Invest Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WARN use?
Our models discount Warteck Invest Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Warteck Invest Ltd that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Warteck Invest Ltd grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Warteck Invest Ltd (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.69 %: that much free cash flow Warteck Invest Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Warteck Invest Ltd it is CHF 830.21 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 1,940. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Warteck Invest Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, WARN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 1,940, fair value CHF 830.21, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WARN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 1,940); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 830.21). For Warteck Invest Ltd the two are CHF 1,110 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Warteck Invest Ltd worth?
The market values Warteck Invest Ltd at about CHF 600M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 1,940; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 830.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WARN?
Our models span a range for Warteck Invest Ltd: cautious scenario CHF 516.94, base CHF 830.21, optimistic CHF 1,038 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price CHF 1,940). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WARN?
Warteck Invest Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 830.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 16.4, EV/EBITDA 29.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Warteck Invest Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WARN from its 52-week high?
Warteck Invest Ltd trades at CHF 1,940, about 3% below its 52-week high of CHF 2,006 and 6% above the low of CHF 1,832 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 830.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Warteck Invest Ltd?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Warteck Invest Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price CHF 1,940, calculated fair value CHF 830.21 (−57%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WARN calculated?
We run Warteck Invest Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 830.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Warteck Invest Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was CHF 1,940. Our model-based fair value is CHF 830.21, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Warteck Invest Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 1,038). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 516.94 to CHF 1,038) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN) come from?
Earnings per share at Warteck Invest Ltd grew +2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.0 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Warteck Invest Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The market capitalisation of Warteck Invest Ltd is CHF 600M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Warteck Invest Ltd is 12.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
Earnings per share at Warteck Invest Ltd are CHF 144.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The dividend yield of Warteck Invest Ltd is 3.7% (payout 49.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The net margin of Warteck Invest Ltd is 96.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Warteck Invest Ltd is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Warteck Invest Ltd is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
The operating margin of Warteck Invest Ltd is 75.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
Revenue at Warteck Invest Ltd is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN)?
Earnings per share at Warteck Invest Ltd are growing +65.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Warteck Invest Ltd (WARN) carry?
The net debt of Warteck Invest Ltd is CHF 441M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 20.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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