Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd ZAR 37.21, price ZAR 37.14, upside +0.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R36.17 – R70.84 · fair‑value band R24.92 – R52.82 · the R37.14 price screens below the R37.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury.
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Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury. The company provides food, clothing, homeware, beauty, and other lifestyle products. It offers financial products and services, such as store cards, credit cards, personal loans, and other financial products. In addition, the company is involved in the cash and debt management activities. Woolworths Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1929 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) currently trades at R37.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R37.21, implying the stock looks roughly 0.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R75.14 per share, and 12 of the 17 models we run sit above the R37.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R8.11, and 5 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R24.92 (bear) to R52.82 (bull), the price of R37.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Woolworths Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 79.5B ZAR in FY2025 versus 78.8B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B ZAR in FY2025, compounding −12.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 43.3B ZAC · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) R1.92 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 15.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 0%, WHL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R24.92Fair Value R37.21Bull R52.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs −3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 6%
Compare Woolworths Holdings Ltd with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 119 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.87× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R37.21 versus a price of R37.14, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WHL?
Our model-based fair value for Woolworths Holdings Ltd is R37.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R37.14.
What is the quality score of WHL?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R37.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario R24.92, optimistic scenario R52.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Woolworths Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R37.21, about +0% upside versus a price of R37.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R24.92, optimistic scenario R52.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 81.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Woolworths Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Woolworths Holdings Ltd it is R37.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R37.14. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WHL trades below its calculated fair value: price R37.14, fair value R37.21, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R37.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R37.21). For Woolworths Holdings Ltd the two are R0.0700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Woolworths Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Woolworths Holdings Ltd at about 43.3B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R37.14; our models calculate a fair value of R37.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WHL?
Our models span a range for Woolworths Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R24.92, base R37.21, optimistic R52.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R37.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WHL?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R37.21 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.2 (reported for FY2025: 13.6). Other multiples: PEG 125.3, P/B 4.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of WHL?
The PEG ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 125.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Woolworths Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.7%, debt of 0.87 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WHL from its 52-week high?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd trades at R37.14, about 37% below its 52-week high of R59.15 and 3% above the low of R36.17 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R37.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Woolworths Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Cencosud S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R37.14, calculated fair value R37.21 (+0%), Quality Score 59/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WHL calculated?
We run Woolworths Holdings Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R37.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Woolworths Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R37.14. Our model-based fair value is R37.21, about +0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Woolworths Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (R24.92 to R52.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) come from?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd grew −0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin −3.7 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Woolworths Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The market capitalisation of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 43.3B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 0.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd are R1.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The dividend yield of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 5.4% (payout 104%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The net margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 15.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The operating margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Revenue at Woolworths Holdings Ltd is growing +5.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd are growing −32.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) generate?
The free cash flow of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is −291M ZAC (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) carry?
The net debt of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 15.4B ZAC (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026