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Woolworths Holdings (WHL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · ZA · Market cap 43.3B ZAC

WH Woolworths Holdings WHL · JSE
PriceR49.30
Fair ValueR55.53
Upside+12.6%
Quality59/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: High Range R23.66 – R69.58 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 30 days ago

Share price −5.3% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 13% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (R23.66 to R69.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Our model range runs from R23.66 (bear) to R69.58 (bull), base R55.53. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R75.32 R41.82 Fair Value R55.53 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R41.82 – R75.32 · fair‑value band R23.66 – R69.58 · the R49.30 price screens below the R55.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Woolworths Holdings (WHL) currently trades at R49.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R55.53, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Woolworths Holdings generated revenue of 81.6B ZAR at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.7%. Net debt stands at 15.4B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R23.66 (bear case) to R69.58 (bull case); at R49.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 13%, WHL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income R16.76 R20.11 R50.62 76
ROIC Compounder R46.17 R58.92 R73.08 72
Gordon GGM R21.24 R44.17 R70.07 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings R30.23 R49.88 R79.71 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R18.90 R57.61 R76.45 54
Lynch FV R12.35 R17.65 R22.94 50
PEG = 1.0 R12.35 R17.65 R22.94 46
EPV R43.04 R51.16 R58.26 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R21.24 R44.17 R70.07 70
DDM Multi-Stage R21.24 R34.81 R46.36 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R45.85 R61.14 R76.42 63
P/S Multiple R35.43 R47.24 R59.05 58
P/B Multiple R35.43 R47.24 R59.05 55
EV/EBIT R71.87 R97.72 R123.57 53
EV/EBITDA R81.70 R110.82 R139.95 54
EV/Revenue R46.59 R69.00 R91.40 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R6.05 R8.11 R12.10 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income R16.76 R20.11 R50.62 76
ROIC Compounder R46.17 R58.92 R73.08 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R37.47 R53.53 R69.58 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (R61.14) versus Asset-Based (R8.11). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 81.6B ZAC
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.2%
Net margin 2.1%
Return on equity 15.7%
Free cash flow −291M ZAC FY2025
P/E ratio 25.6
More key figures
Operating margin 6.6%
EPS (TTM) R1.92
Dividend yield 0.0%
EPS growth (YoY) -32.2%
Net debt 15.4B ZAC FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 70
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury.

Full company description

Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury. The company provides food, clothing, homeware, beauty, and other lifestyle products. It offers financial products and services, such as store cards, credit cards, personal loans, and other financial products. In addition, the company is involved in the cash and debt management activities. Woolworths Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1929 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Woolworths Holdings reported revenue of R79.5B in FY2025 versus R78.8B in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was R2.4B in FY2025, compounding −12.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
79.5B ZAR
Latest YoY
+3.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Revenue +0.2%/yr
FY21 R78.8B
FY22 R80.1B
FY23 R72.3B
FY24 R76.5B
FY25 R79.5B
Net income −12.5%/yr
FY21 R4.2B
FY22 R3.7B
FY23 R5.1B
FY24 R2.6B
FY25 R2.4B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.6 pp

of which total revenue +3.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp

EBIT margin −3.7 pp
Tax rate +0.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Woolworths Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WHL

Peer Group

Department Stores · 127 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 59 · Above median
Fair Value upside +13% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.87× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.07× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.53× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 7.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 125.32× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 50 · sector 26
FUTURE 26 · sector 2
PAST 63 · sector 16
HEALTH 56 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 1 · sector 37

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

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99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 3.70 MYR 1.45 MYR -61%
Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD 2,040 CLP 2,516 CLP +23%
Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM ₹113.94 ₹37.39 -67%
SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 610,000 KRW 200,259 KRW -67%
Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB 30.04 MXN 59.59 MXN +98%
Lotte Shopping Co 023530 155,300 KRW 81,725 KRW -47%
Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 R$14.10 R$33.36 +137%
La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC 34.37 MXN 51.49 MXN +50%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Woolworths Holdings (WHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R55.53 versus a price of R49.30, about +13% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WHL?
Our model-based fair value for Woolworths Holdings is R55.53 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R49.30.
What is the quality score of WHL?
Woolworths Holdings has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Woolworths Holdings (WHL)?
Woolworths Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 81.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WHL?
The net profit margin of Woolworths Holdings is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Woolworths Holdings pay a dividend?
Woolworths Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 11, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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