Woolworths Holdings (WHL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · ZA · Market cap 43.3B ZAC
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Share price −5.3% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 13% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (R23.66 to R69.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Our model range runs from R23.66 (bear) to R69.58 (bull), base R55.53. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 59/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R41.82 – R75.32 · fair‑value band R23.66 – R69.58 · the R49.30 price screens below the R55.53 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Woolworths Holdings (WHL) currently trades at R49.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R55.53, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Woolworths Holdings generated revenue of 81.6B ZAR at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.7%. Net debt stands at 15.4B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R23.66 (bear case) to R69.58 (bull case); at R49.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at 13%, WHL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (R61.14) versus Asset-Based (R8.11). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury.
Full company description
Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury. The company provides food, clothing, homeware, beauty, and other lifestyle products. It offers financial products and services, such as store cards, credit cards, personal loans, and other financial products. In addition, the company is involved in the cash and debt management activities. Woolworths Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1929 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Woolworths Holdings reported revenue of R79.5B in FY2025 versus R78.8B in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was R2.4B in FY2025, compounding −12.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Department Stores · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 5,875 CLP | 8,880 CLP | +51% |
| El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A. LIVEPOLC1 | 99.62 MXN | 263.70 MXN | +165% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.70 MYR | 1.45 MYR | -61% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 2,040 CLP | 2,516 CLP | +23% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹113.94 | ₹37.39 | -67% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 610,000 KRW | 200,259 KRW | -67% |
| Organización Soriana, S. A. B. de C. V., SORIANAB | 30.04 MXN | 59.59 MXN | +98% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 155,300 KRW | 81,725 KRW | -47% |
| Lojas Renner S.A LREN3 | R$14.10 | R$33.36 | +137% |
| La Comer, S.A. LACOMERUBC | 34.37 MXN | 51.49 MXN | +50% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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