Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Woolworths Holdings Ltd stock ZAR 48.74, price ZAR 41.39, upside +17.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R35.40 – R69.35 · fair‑value band R34.12 – R63.36 · the R41.39 price screens below the R48.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Woolworths Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of retail stores in South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.
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It operates through seven segments: Woolworths Fashion, Beauty and Home; Woolworths Food; Woolworths Logistics; Country Road Group; Woolworths Financial Services; and Treasury. The company provides food, clothing, homeware, beauty, and other lifestyle products.
It offers financial products and services, such as store cards, credit cards, personal loans, and other financial products. In addition, the company is involved in the cash and debt management activities. Woolworths Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1929 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) currently trades at R41.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R48.74, implying the stock looks roughly 15% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R58.46 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the R41.39 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R24.01, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R34.12 (bear) to R63.36 (bull), the price of R41.39 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.
Woolworths Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 82.8B ZAR in FY2026 versus 80.1B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.3B ZAR in FY2026, compounding −11.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 36.8B ZAR Mid · P/E ratio 15.9 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) R2.60 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 18%, WHL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR34.12Fair Value R48.74BullR63.36
Price R41.39 · Upside +17.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2206 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2014: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2014.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Per share before 2014divided by the spin-off factor 1.0503
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.3% vs −5.3%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.6% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Woolworths Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Department Stores · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.60× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.45× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)13.6× · Pricier than median
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Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R48.74 versus a price of R41.39, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of WHL?
Our model-based fair value for Woolworths Holdings Ltd is R48.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R41.39.
What is the quality score of WHL?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R48.74 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R34.12, optimistic scenario R63.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Woolworths Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R48.74, about +18% upside versus a price of R41.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R34.12, optimistic scenario R63.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 82.8B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Woolworths Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd pays a dividend of R1.99 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 22, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1998. The payout ratio is 76.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.52 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Woolworths Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WHL use?
Our models discount Woolworths Holdings Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Woolworths Holdings Ltd that is +10.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Woolworths Holdings Ltd grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Woolworths Holdings Ltd (+10.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.35 %: that much free cash flow Woolworths Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Woolworths Holdings Ltd it is R48.74 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of R41.39. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, WHL trades below its calculated fair value: price R41.39, fair value R48.74, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R41.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R48.74). For Woolworths Holdings Ltd the two are R7.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Woolworths Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Woolworths Holdings Ltd at about 36.8B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is R41.39; our models calculate a fair value of R48.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WHL?
Our models span a range for Woolworths Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R34.12, base R48.74, optimistic R63.36 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price R41.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WHL?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R48.74 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 16.7. Other multiples: PEG 125.3, P/B 3.6, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
What is the PEG ratio of WHL?
The PEG ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 125.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Woolworths Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 22.2%, debt of 0.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WHL from its 52-week high?
Woolworths Holdings Ltd trades at R41.39, about 29% below its 52-week high of R57.90 and 17% above the low of R35.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R48.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Woolworths Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Falabella S.A, Dillard's, Inc, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings, Macy's, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Woolworths Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price R41.39, calculated fair value R48.74 (+18%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WHL calculated?
We run Woolworths Holdings Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R48.74 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Woolworths Holdings Ltd currently trades 15% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was R41.39. Our model-based fair value is R48.74, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Woolworths Holdings Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (R34.12 to R63.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) come from?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd grew −5.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin −4.9 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Woolworths Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The market capitalisation of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 36.8B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 0.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd are R2.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The dividend yield of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 4.8% (payout 76.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The net margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
The operating margin of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Revenue at Woolworths Holdings Ltd is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL)?
Earnings per share at Woolworths Holdings Ltd are growing +247% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Woolworths Holdings Ltd (WHL) carry?
The net debt of Woolworths Holdings Ltd is 15.5B ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026