Xpeng Inc (XPEV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Xpeng Inc $26.67, price $10.29, upside +159.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.41 – $55.00 · fair‑value band $14.53 – $37.20 · the $10.29 price screens below the $26.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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XPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles (EVs) in the People's Republic of China.
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XPeng Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets smart electric vehicles (EVs) in the People's Republic of China. The company offers P7 and P7i, a four-door sports sedan; G9, a smart EV and a mid- to large-sized sport utility vehicle (SUV); G7 for families and individual consumers seeking advanced technology and comfort; G6, a smart EV and a coupe SUV; X9, Smart EV and a large seven-seater multi-purpose vehicle (MPV); MONA M03, an all-electric hatchback coupe; Next P7, an all-new coupe sports sedan; and P7+, smart EV of XPeng series. It also provides XOS Tianji, smart in-car operating system; Powertrain; and SEPA 2.0, a smart electric platform architecture. In addition, the company offers various services, including services embedded in a sales contract, supercharging, maintenance, technical support, technical research and development, and second-hand vehicle sales services; and insurance technology support, and automotive loan referral and auto financing services. XPeng Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Xpeng Inc (XPEV) currently trades at $10.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.67, implying the stock looks roughly 61.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $189.89 per share, and 7 of the 7 models we run sit above the $10.29 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $26.04, and 0 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $14.53 (bear) to $37.20 (bull), the price of $10.29 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Xpeng Inc reported revenue of 74.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 21.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound +37.3%/yr. Reported net income was −1.1B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $11.9B · P/S ratio 0.16 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3500 · Net margin −1.5% · Return on equity −7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.5% · Operating margin −14.8% · Revenue (TTM) $73.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 159%, XPEV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $14.53Fair Value $26.67Bull $37.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+82.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+66.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+259.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−73.5% (2020) → −5.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+155% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−15% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−18% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xpeng Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPEV
Frequently asked questions
Is Xpeng Inc (XPEV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.67 versus a price of $10.29, about +159% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XPEV?
Our model-based fair value for Xpeng Inc is $26.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.29.
What is the quality score of XPEV?
Xpeng Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.67 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.53, optimistic scenario $37.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xpeng Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.67, about +159% upside versus a price of $10.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $14.53, optimistic scenario $37.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
Xpeng Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $73.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xpeng Inc it is $26.67 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.29. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xpeng Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, XPEV trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.29, fair value $26.67, a gap of about +159% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPEV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.67). For Xpeng Inc the two are $16.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xpeng Inc worth?
The market values Xpeng Inc at about $11.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.29; our models calculate a fair value of $26.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPEV?
Our models span a range for Xpeng Inc: cautious scenario $14.53, base $26.67, optimistic $37.20 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xpeng Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −7.6%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPEV from its 52-week high?
Xpeng Inc trades at $10.29, about 63% below its 52-week high of $28.07 and 1% above the low of $10.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xpeng Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Hyundai Motor Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xpeng Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.29, calculated fair value $26.67 (+159%), Quality Score 59/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPEV calculated?
We run Xpeng Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.67, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Xpeng Inc currently trades 159 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.29. Our model-based fair value is $26.67, about +159% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xpeng Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($14.53 to $37.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Xpeng Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
The market capitalisation of Xpeng Inc is $11.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xpeng Inc is 0.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
Earnings per share at Xpeng Inc are $−0.3500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
The net margin of Xpeng Inc is −1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xpeng Inc is −7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xpeng Inc is −9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
The operating margin of Xpeng Inc is −14.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
Revenue at Xpeng Inc is growing −17.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Xpeng Inc (XPEV)?
Earnings per share at Xpeng Inc are growing −10.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Xpeng Inc (XPEV) generate?
The free cash flow of Xpeng Inc is $4.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xpeng Inc (XPEV) carry?
The net debt of Xpeng Inc is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026