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Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · AU · ISIN AU0000189664

XT Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Xpon Technologies Group Ltd

XPN · AU

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value A$0.0141 · Undervalued (+18%)
!Quality 34/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +39.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.6% net margin (TTM)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (6/8)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.2450 A$0.0060 Fair Value A$0.0141 Dec 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

57‑month range A$0.0060 – A$0.2450 · fair‑value band A$0.0110 – A$0.0172 · the A$0.0120 price screens below the A$0.0141 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

XPON Technologies Group Limited provides software solutions to corporate and enterprises in Australia and the United Kingdom.

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XPON Technologies Group Limited provides software solutions to corporate and enterprises in Australia and the United Kingdom. It offers Wondaris, a customer data platform for marketers that centralizes customer and marketing data; Holoscribe, an extended reality platform that enables users with no specialised skills to publish XR and 360 content in various channels; Google Cloud Platform, a scalable platform that provides computing, storage, and analytics for marketing and CX; and Google Marketing Platform, an online advertising and analytics platform to manage media spend. The company also provides project consulting and manage support services; and digital transformation, first-party data strategies, marketing analytics, Al for marketing, and marketing technology optimisation. It serves its products to retail and travel, financial services, media and entertainment, and education industries. XPON Technologies Group Limited was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

Stock analysis

Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) currently trades at A$0.0120, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0141, implying the stock looks roughly 14.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0110 (bear) to A$0.0172 (bull), the price of A$0.0120 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Xpon Technologies Group Ltd reported revenue of A$8.9M in FY2025 versus A$5.4M in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$4.9M (≈ $3.5M) · P/S ratio 0.43 · Net margin −15.2% · Return on equity −705% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.4% · Operating margin 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) A$11.3M · Revenue growth (YoY) +58.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 18%, XPN screens cheaper than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 46
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−59.1% (2019) → −37.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +18% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 58% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.31× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.8× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)57 · sector 16
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Fortinet, Inc FTNT $178.74 $164.92 −8%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $413.06 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $74.68 $101.29 +36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.90 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xpon Technologies Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPN

Frequently asked questions

Is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0141 versus a price of A$0.0120, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XPN?
Our model-based fair value for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is A$0.0141 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0120.
What is the quality score of XPN?
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0141 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0110, optimistic scenario A$0.0172. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xpon Technologies Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0141, about +18% upside versus a price of A$0.0120 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0110, optimistic scenario A$0.0172. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$11.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xpon Technologies Group Ltd it is A$0.0141 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.0120. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, XPN trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0120, fair value A$0.0141, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0120); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0141). For Xpon Technologies Group Ltd the two are A$0.0021 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd worth?
The market values Xpon Technologies Group Ltd at about A$4.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0120; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0141 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPN?
Our models span a range for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0110, base A$0.0141, optimistic A$0.0172 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$0.0120). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPN from its 52-week high?
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd trades at A$0.0120, about 52% below its 52-week high of A$0.0250 and 33% above the low of A$0.0090 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0141 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xpon Technologies Group Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$0.0120, calculated fair value A$0.0141 (+18%), Quality Score 34/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPN calculated?
We run Xpon Technologies Group Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0141, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Xpon Technologies Group Ltd currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0120. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0141, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xpon Technologies Group Ltd right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The market capitalisation of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is A$4.9M (≈ $3.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The net margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is −15.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is −705% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is −25.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The operating margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Revenue at Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is growing +58.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) generate?
The free cash flow of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is −A$1.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) carry?
The net debt of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is A$1.5M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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