XPON Technologies Group (XPN) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · AU · Market cap A$4.9M

Below-average quality, and screening another 15% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0094). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0085 to A$0.0094), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

56‑month range A$0.0060 – A$0.2450 · fair‑value band A$0.0085 – A$0.0094 · the A$0.0100 price screens above the A$0.0085 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

XPON Technologies Group (XPN) currently trades at A$0.0100, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0085, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, XPON Technologies Group generated revenue of A$11.3M at a net margin of -4.6%. Revenue grew 58.0% year over year. Net debt stands at A$1.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$0.0085 (bear case) to A$0.0094 (bull case); at A$0.0100, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -15%, XPN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.0200) versus Earnings-Based (A$0.0100). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

XPON Technologies Group Limited provides software solutions to corporate and enterprises in Australia and the United Kingdom.

Full company description

XPON Technologies Group Limited provides software solutions to corporate and enterprises in Australia and the United Kingdom. It offers Wondaris, a customer data platform for marketers that centralizes customer and marketing data; Holoscribe, an extended reality platform that enables users with no specialised skills to publish XR and 360 content in various channels; Google Cloud Platform, a scalable platform that provides computing, storage, and analytics for marketing and CX; and Google Marketing Platform, an online advertising and analytics platform to manage media spend. The company also provides project consulting and manage support services; and digital transformation, first-party data strategies, marketing analytics, Al for marketing, and marketing technology optimisation. It serves its products to retail and travel, financial services, media and entertainment, and education industries. XPON Technologies Group Limited was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

XPON Technologies Group reported revenue of A$8.9M in FY2025 versus A$5.4M in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.4M in FY2025.

XPN screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

Peer Group

Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Technology stocks →

Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.