Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd stock A$0.01, price A$0.01, that is 9.2% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range A$0.0060 – A$0.2450 · fair‑value band A$0.0107 – A$0.0118 · the A$0.0130 price screens above the A$0.0118 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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XPON Technologies Group Limited provides software solutions to corporate and enterprises in Australia and the United Kingdom.
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It offers Wondaris, a customer data platform for marketers that centralizes customer and marketing data; Holoscribe, an extended reality platform that enables users with no specialised skills to publish XR and 360 content in various channels; Google Cloud Platform, a scalable platform that provides computing, storage, and analytics for marketing and CX; and Google Marketing Platform, an online advertising and analytics platform to manage media spend.
The company also provides project consulting and manage support services; and digital transformation, first-party data strategies, marketing analytics, Al for marketing, and marketing technology optimisation.
It serves its products to retail and travel, financial services, media and entertainment, and education industries. XPON Technologies Group Limited was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) currently trades at A$0.0130, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0118, 9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$0.0800 per share, and 14 of the 21 models we run sit above the A$0.0130 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0100, and 7 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.0107 (bear) to A$0.0118 (bull), the price of A$0.0130 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd reported revenue of A$12.3M in FY2026 versus A$13.3M in FY2022, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was A$225K in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$7.1M (≈ $4.9M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.58 · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity −705% · Return on assets (EBIT) −22.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3.5% · Revenue (TTM) A$12.3M · Revenue growth (YoY) +19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −9%, XPN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.0107Fair Value A$0.0118BullA$0.0118
Price A$0.0130 · Downside -9.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPVA$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.010074
FCF DCFA$0.0600A$0.1000A$0.230072
Growth DCFA$0.0600A$0.1200A$0.230072
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.0600A$0.1000A$0.230072
Owner EarningsA$0.0500A$0.1200A$0.270067
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.0200A$0.0300A$0.060067
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.0400A$0.0600A$0.110070
5Y P/E ExitA$0.0200A$0.0400A$0.060067
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.0300A$0.0600A$0.070065
10Y EBITDA ExitA$0.0400A$0.0900A$0.160063
10Y P/E ExitA$0.0300A$0.0600A$0.090060
Earnings-Based
Graham-Doddn/aA$0.0200A$0.030060
Lynch FVA$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.010060
PEG = 1.0A$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.010056
EPVA$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.010074
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.020060
P/S MultipleA$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.010058
EV/EBITA$0.0200A$0.0200A$0.030066
EV/EBITDAA$0.0300A$0.0400A$0.050067
EV/RevenueA$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.020051
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.0600A$0.1200A$0.230072
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.0200A$0.0400A$0.070067
Economic Profit
ROIC CompounderA$0.0100A$0.0100A$0.010070
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.0100A$0.0200A$0.020066
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−41.0% (2021) → 4.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 346 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−9.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)19.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xpon Technologies Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XPN
Frequently asked questions
Is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0118 versus a price of A$0.0130, about 9% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPN?
Our model-based fair value for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is A$0.0118 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0130.
What is the quality score of XPN?
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0118 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0107, optimistic scenario A$0.0118. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xpon Technologies Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0118, about 9% lower versus a price of A$0.0130 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0107, optimistic scenario A$0.0118. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$12.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xpon Technologies Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.7 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPN use?
Our models discount Xpon Technologies Group Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xpon Technologies Group Ltd that is -2.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xpon Technologies Group Ltd grew +17.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (-2.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.60 %: that much free cash flow Xpon Technologies Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xpon Technologies Group Ltd it is A$0.0118 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.0130. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, XPN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0130, fair value A$0.0118, a gap of about −9% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0130); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0118). For Xpon Technologies Group Ltd the two are A$0.0012 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd worth?
The market values Xpon Technologies Group Ltd at about A$7.1M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0130; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0118 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPN?
Our models span a range for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0107, base A$0.0118, optimistic A$0.0118 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$0.0130). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPN from its 52-week high?
Xpon Technologies Group Ltd trades at A$0.0130, about 48% below its 52-week high of A$0.0250 and 44% above the low of A$0.0090 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0118 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xpon Technologies Group Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xpon Technologies Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$0.0130, calculated fair value A$0.0118 (−9%), Quality Score 48/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPN calculated?
We run Xpon Technologies Group Ltd through 21 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0118 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Xpon Technologies Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0130. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0118, about 9% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xpon Technologies Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0118). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0107 to A$0.0118), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The market capitalisation of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is A$7.1M (≈ $4.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is 0.58 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The net margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is 1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is −705% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is −22.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
The operating margin of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is −3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN)?
Revenue at Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is growing +19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Xpon Technologies Group Ltd (XPN) carry?
The net debt of Xpon Technologies Group Ltd is A$688K (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 4, 2026