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Xreality Group Ltd (XRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Xreality Group Ltd A$0.12, price A$0.06, upside +90.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · AU · ISIN AU0000196065

XG Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Xreality Group Ltd

XRG · AU

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value A$0.1159 · Strongly undervalued (+90%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/12)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.0870 A$0.0170 Fair Value A$0.1159 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0170 – A$0.0870 · fair‑value band A$0.0657 – A$0.1159 · the A$0.0610 price screens below the A$0.1159 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

xReality Group Limited develops and operates physical and digital simulations in the Asia Pacific and the United States. It operates in two segments, Entertainment and Enterprise. The company owns and operates indoor skydiving run under the iFLY Downunder and iFLY Gold Coast brand name; and virtual reality operations under the FREAK brand.

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xReality Group Limited develops and operates physical and digital simulations in the Asia Pacific and the United States. It operates in two segments, Entertainment and Enterprise. The company owns and operates indoor skydiving run under the iFLY Downunder and iFLY Gold Coast brand name; and virtual reality operations under the FREAK brand. It also provides Red Cartel, a virtual reality, augmented reality, extended reality, and animation content for enterprise software product for entertainment, oil and gas, mining, healthcare, and government industries. In addition, the company operates Operator XR, which provides mission planning and rehearsal system for military and law enforcement agencies. It serves tourists, professional skydivers, and military. The company was formerly known as Indoor Skydive Australia Group Limited and changed its name to xReality Group Limited in December 2021. xReality Group Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Brookvale, Australia.

Stock analysis

Xreality Group Ltd (XRG) currently trades at A$0.0610, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1159, implying the stock looks roughly 47.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.0600 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$0.0610 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.0200, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$0.0657 (bear) to A$0.1159 (bull), the price of A$0.0610 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Xreality Group Ltd reported revenue of A$14.0M in FY2025 versus A$7.3M in FY2021, a compound +17.7%/yr. Reported net income was −A$3.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$51.1M (≈ $36.0M) · P/S ratio 3.13 · Net margin −22.5% · Return on equity −12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% · Operating margin −7.5% · Revenue (TTM) A$16.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) +40.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 90%, XRG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0657 Fair Value A$0.1159 Bull A$0.1159
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 76
FCF DCF A$0.0800 A$0.1500 A$0.3100 75
Growth DCF A$0.0800 A$0.1500 A$0.2700 75
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF A$0.0800 A$0.1500 A$0.3100 75
5Y Revenue Exit A$0.0300 A$0.0500 A$0.0800 71
5Y EBITDA Exit A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 76
10Y Revenue Exit A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.1100 66
10Y EBITDA Exit A$0.0400 A$0.0600 A$0.0700 70
Multiples
EV/Revenue A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF A$0.0800 A$0.1500 A$0.2700 75
Rev-Margin DCF A$0.0300 A$0.0500 A$0.0800 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 88
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 91
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+52.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.9% (2019) → −20.5% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.6% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside +96% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 40% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.41× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.13× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.20× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 11.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 77.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)80 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 57

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥37.48 ¥108.20 +189%
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$12.38 HK$29.57 +139%
Benefit Systems S.A BFT 5,070 PLN 5,577 PLN +10%
Mattel, Inc MAT $13.21 $21.24 +61%

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Xreality Group Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.1159 +47%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Xreality Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/XRG

Frequently asked questions

Is Xreality Group Ltd (XRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.1159 versus a price of A$0.0610, about +90% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of XRG?
Our model-based fair value for Xreality Group Ltd is A$0.1159 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0610.
What is the quality score of XRG?
Xreality Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.1159 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0657, optimistic scenario A$0.1159. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Xreality Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.1159, about +90% upside versus a price of A$0.0610 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0657, optimistic scenario A$0.1159. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
Xreality Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$16.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Xreality Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XRG use?
Our models discount Xreality Group Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Xreality Group Ltd that is -2.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Xreality Group Ltd (XRG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Xreality Group Ltd grew +20.2 % a year. The price currently implies -2.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Xreality Group Ltd (-2.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.90 %: that much free cash flow Xreality Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Xreality Group Ltd it is A$0.1159 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.0610. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Xreality Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, XRG trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0610, fair value A$0.1159, a gap of about +90% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0610); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.1159). For Xreality Group Ltd the two are A$0.0549 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Xreality Group Ltd worth?
The market values Xreality Group Ltd at about A$51.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0610; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.1159 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XRG?
Our models span a range for Xreality Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0657, base A$0.1159, optimistic A$0.1159 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.0610). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Xreality Group Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −12.1%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XRG from its 52-week high?
Xreality Group Ltd trades at A$0.0610, about 21% below its 52-week high of A$0.0770 and 42% above the low of A$0.0430 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.1159 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Xreality Group Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Xreality Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.0610, calculated fair value A$0.1159 (+90%), Quality Score 46/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XRG calculated?
We run Xreality Group Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.1159, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Xreality Group Ltd currently trades 90 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0610. Our model-based fair value is A$0.1159, about +90% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Xreality Group Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0657). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Xreality Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
The market capitalisation of Xreality Group Ltd is A$51.1M (≈ $36.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Xreality Group Ltd is 3.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
The net margin of Xreality Group Ltd is −22.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Xreality Group Ltd is −12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Xreality Group Ltd is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
The operating margin of Xreality Group Ltd is −7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Xreality Group Ltd (XRG)?
Revenue at Xreality Group Ltd is growing +40.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Xreality Group Ltd (XRG) carry?
The net debt of Xreality Group Ltd is A$16.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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