Avante Corp (XX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CA · Market cap C$36.2M
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from C$1.41 to C$0.7400 (−47.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.8900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.6300 – C$2.23 · fair‑value band C$0.6000 – C$0.8900 · the C$1.72 price screens above the C$0.7400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Avante Corp (XX) currently trades at C$1.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.7400, implying the stock looks roughly 57.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Avante Corp generated revenue of C$36.1M at a net margin of -1.8%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of C$4.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.6000 (bear case) to C$0.8900 (bull case); at C$1.72, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 139% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -57%, XX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$0.4300) versus Asset-Based (C$0.3200). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Avante Corp. develops security technologies, products, and solutions in Canada, the United States, Israel, Egypt, Italy, Kuwait, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company provides system design, sales, installations, and monitoring services, including alarm response and patrols, personal protection, house staff training, and secure transportation.
Full company description
Avante Corp. develops security technologies, products, and solutions in Canada, the United States, Israel, Egypt, Italy, Kuwait, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company provides system design, sales, installations, and monitoring services, including alarm response and patrols, personal protection, house staff training, and secure transportation. It offers consulting and installation services for automation and security solutions for the residential market; intelligent perimeter protection video analytics and rapid alarm response services; and Closed Circuit Television (CCTV), access controls, and security services for travelling executives, as well as specialized security services, such as security, cyber monitoring, investigations, and international secured transportation. In addition, the company offers investigation, medical, emergency SOS services, and cyber sentiment monitoring and sensitive investigations for executive customers; and risk and crisis management, remote medicine, due diligence, and travel risk management services. Further, it provides auto storage services for high-value vehicle owners, personal and condominium protective services, monitoring and control applications, secure transportation, and private investigations. Avante Corp. is based in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Avante Corp reported revenue of C$33.8M in FY2025 versus C$91.7M in FY2021, a compound −22.1%/yr. Reported net income was −C$2.0M in FY2025.
XX screens 57% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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