Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Castellana Properties Socimi €12.39, price €9.55, upside +29.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.25 – €9.85 · fair‑value band €5.87 – €23.09 · the €9.55 price screens below the €12.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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As of December 20, 2016, Castellana Properties Socimi, S.A. (BME:YCPS) operates as a subsidiary of Vukile Property Fund Limited.
Stock analysis
Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS) currently trades at €9.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.39, implying the stock looks roughly 22.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €14.63 per share, and 8 of the 16 models we run sit above the €9.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.12, and 8 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €5.87 (bear) to €23.09 (bull), the price of €9.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Castellana Properties Socimi reported revenue of €160M in FY2026 versus €72.6M in FY2022, a compound +21.9%/yr. Reported net income was €151M in FY2026, compounding +34.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €1.4B · P/E ratio 8.4 · P/S ratio 7.88 · EPS (TTM) €1.14 · Dividend yield 9.0% · Net margin 94.0% · Return on equity 15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 30%, YCPS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.87Fair Value €12.39Bull €23.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1363 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+57.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+32.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−34% → 63%
2026 sits 123% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.3% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 93 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+30% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)87% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)67% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth31% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.39 versus a price of €9.55, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YCPS?
Our model-based fair value for Castellana Properties Socimi is €12.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.55.
What is the quality score of YCPS?
Castellana Properties Socimi has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.87, optimistic scenario €23.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Castellana Properties Socimi stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.39, about +30% upside versus a price of €9.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €5.87, optimistic scenario €23.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
Castellana Properties Socimi reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €174M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Castellana Properties Socimi pay a dividend?
Castellana Properties Socimi currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Castellana Properties Socimi would have to grow free cash flow by +12.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YCPS use?
Our models discount Castellana Properties Socimi at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Castellana Properties Socimi that is +12.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Castellana Properties Socimi grew +23.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Castellana Properties Socimi (+12.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.23 %: that much free cash flow Castellana Properties Socimi produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Castellana Properties Socimi it is €12.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €9.55. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Castellana Properties Socimi stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, YCPS trades below its calculated fair value: price €9.55, fair value €12.39, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YCPS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.39). For Castellana Properties Socimi the two are €2.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Castellana Properties Socimi worth?
The market values Castellana Properties Socimi at about €1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €9.55; our models calculate a fair value of €12.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YCPS?
Our models span a range for Castellana Properties Socimi: cautious scenario €5.87, base €12.39, optimistic €23.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €9.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YCPS?
Castellana Properties Socimi trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 9.2, EV/EBITDA 17.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Castellana Properties Socimi (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 15.5%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YCPS from its 52-week high?
Castellana Properties Socimi trades at €9.55, about 3% below its 52-week high of €9.85 and 32% above the low of €7.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Castellana Properties Socimi?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, Kimco Realty Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Castellana Properties Socimi stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €9.55, calculated fair value €12.39 (+30%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YCPS calculated?
We run Castellana Properties Socimi through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Castellana Properties Socimi currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €9.55. Our model-based fair value is €12.39, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Castellana Properties Socimi right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€5.87 to €23.09). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Castellana Properties Socimi
How large is the market capitalisation of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The market capitalisation of Castellana Properties Socimi is €1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Castellana Properties Socimi is 7.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
Earnings per share at Castellana Properties Socimi are €1.14 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The dividend yield of Castellana Properties Socimi is 9.0% (payout 75.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The net margin of Castellana Properties Socimi is 94.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Castellana Properties Socimi is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Castellana Properties Socimi is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
The operating margin of Castellana Properties Socimi is 67.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
Revenue at Castellana Properties Socimi is growing +31.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS)?
Earnings per share at Castellana Properties Socimi are growing +50.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Castellana Properties Socimi (YCPS) carry?
The net debt of Castellana Properties Socimi is €587M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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