Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Yellow Hat Ltd. $11.26, price $8.47, upside +33.0%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range $7.33 – $15.43 · fair‑value band $6.57 – $16.86 · the $8.47 price screens below the $11.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Yellow Hat Ltd. is involved in the retail of car and motorcycle accessories. It operates through the Sales of Car and Motorcycle Accessories and Rental Real Estate Business segments. The company offers tires and wheels, oil, functional and car wash products, chemicals, audio visuals, and car interior and exterior products. Yellow Hat Ltd.
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Yellow Hat Ltd. is involved in the retail of car and motorcycle accessories. It operates through the Sales of Car and Motorcycle Accessories and Rental Real Estate Business segments. The company offers tires and wheels, oil, functional and car wash products, chemicals, audio visuals, and car interior and exterior products. Yellow Hat Ltd. was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF) currently trades at $8.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.26, implying the stock looks roughly 24.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $17.81 per share, and 17 of the 22 models we run sit above the $8.47 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.06, and 5 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.57 (bear) to $16.86 (bull), the price of $8.47 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Yellow Hat Ltd. reported revenue of ¥171B in FY2026 versus ¥148B in FY2022, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥12.0B in FY2026, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $724M · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $0.8000 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 33%, YLLWF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.57Fair Value $11.26Bull $16.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto & Truck Dealerships · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+33% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yellow Hat Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YLLWF
Frequently asked questions
Is Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.26 versus a price of $8.47, about +33% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YLLWF?
Our model-based fair value for Yellow Hat Ltd. is $11.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.47.
What is the quality score of YLLWF?
Yellow Hat Ltd. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.57, optimistic scenario $16.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yellow Hat Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.26, about +33% upside versus a price of $8.47 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.57, optimistic scenario $16.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
Yellow Hat Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥171B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Yellow Hat Ltd. pay a dividend?
Yellow Hat Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yellow Hat Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YLLWF use?
Our models discount Yellow Hat Ltd. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yellow Hat Ltd. that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yellow Hat Ltd. grew +3.1 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yellow Hat Ltd. (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.13 %: that much free cash flow Yellow Hat Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yellow Hat Ltd. it is $11.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.47. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yellow Hat Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, YLLWF trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.47, fair value $11.26, a gap of about +33% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YLLWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.26). For Yellow Hat Ltd. the two are $2.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yellow Hat Ltd. worth?
The market values Yellow Hat Ltd. at about $724M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.47; our models calculate a fair value of $11.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YLLWF?
Our models span a range for Yellow Hat Ltd.: cautious scenario $6.57, base $11.26, optimistic $16.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YLLWF?
Yellow Hat Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yellow Hat Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YLLWF from its 52-week high?
Yellow Hat Ltd. trades at $8.47, at its 52-week high of $8.47 and 10% above the low of $7.72 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yellow Hat Ltd.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Carvana Co, Penske Automotive Group, Hotai Motor Co, CarMax, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yellow Hat Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.47, calculated fair value $11.26 (+33%), Quality Score 49/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YLLWF calculated?
We run Yellow Hat Ltd. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Yellow Hat Ltd. currently trades 33 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $8.47. Our model-based fair value is $11.26, about +33% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yellow Hat Ltd. right now?
Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($6.57 to $16.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Yellow Hat Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The market capitalisation of Yellow Hat Ltd. is $724M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yellow Hat Ltd. is 0.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
Earnings per share at Yellow Hat Ltd. are $0.8000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The dividend yield of Yellow Hat Ltd. is 2.8% (payout 29.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The net margin of Yellow Hat Ltd. is 7.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yellow Hat Ltd. is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yellow Hat Ltd. is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
The operating margin of Yellow Hat Ltd. is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
Revenue at Yellow Hat Ltd. is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF)?
Earnings per share at Yellow Hat Ltd. are growing +1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yellow Hat Ltd. (YLLWF) carry?
The net debt of Yellow Hat Ltd. is ¥13.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 90.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026