Zedcor Energy (ZDC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Zedcor Energy C$0.46, price C$5.07, upside -91.0%, quality 28 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value C$0.4590 · Strongly overvalued (−91.0%)
!Quality 28/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +33.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.7% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(2/12)
!Narrow moat30/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.3100 – C$6.97 · fair‑value band C$0.3400 – C$0.6460 · the C$5.07 price screens above the C$0.4590 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Zedcor Inc. provides turnkey and customized mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions in Canada and the United States.
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Zedcor Inc. provides turnkey and customized mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions in Canada and the United States. It engages in the provision of rental, maintenance, remote video monitoring data streaming and any related software or hardware upgrade services of its MobileyeZ security towers; surveillance and live monitoring of fixed site locations; ancillary services related to fixed site security camera installations; and security guard and personnel services. The company serves customers in the commercial, industrial, and residential construction; energy; retail; pipeline construction; utilities; and infrastructure construction sectors. Zedcor Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Zedcor Energy (ZDC) currently trades at C$5.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.4590, implying the stock looks roughly 1,005.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$1.24 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the C$5.07 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.3700, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.3400 (bear) to C$0.6460 (bull), the price of C$5.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Zedcor Energy reported revenue of C$58.9M in FY2025 versus C$13.6M in FY2021, a compound +44.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$2.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$591M (≈ $418M) · P/E ratio 507.0 · P/S ratio 23.4 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0100 · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% · Operating margin 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −91%, ZDC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (C$0.1400 to C$2.47). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear C$0.3400Fair Value C$0.4590Bull C$0.6460
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0074 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+78.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 17.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zedcor Energy Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZDC
Frequently asked questions
Is Zedcor Energy (ZDC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.4590 versus a price of C$5.07, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ZDC?
Our model-based fair value for Zedcor Energy is C$0.4590 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$5.07.
What is the quality score of ZDC?
Zedcor Energy has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.4590 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.3400, optimistic scenario C$0.6460. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zedcor Energy stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.4590, about −91% upside versus a price of C$5.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.3400, optimistic scenario C$0.6460. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
Zedcor Energy reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$66.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zedcor Energy it is C$0.4590 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$5.07. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zedcor Energy stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ZDC trades above its calculated fair value: price C$5.07, fair value C$0.4590, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ZDC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$5.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.4590). For Zedcor Energy the two are C$4.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zedcor Energy worth?
The market values Zedcor Energy at about C$591M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$5.07; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.4590 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ZDC?
Our models span a range for Zedcor Energy: cautious scenario C$0.3400, base C$0.4590, optimistic C$0.6460 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$5.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zedcor Energy (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 2.4%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ZDC from its 52-week high?
Zedcor Energy trades at C$5.07, about 27% below its 52-week high of C$6.97 and 13% above the low of C$4.49 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.4590 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zedcor Energy?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, Verisure plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zedcor Energy stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$5.07, calculated fair value C$0.4590 (−91%), Quality Score 28/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ZDC calculated?
We run Zedcor Energy through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.4590, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Zedcor Energy itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was C$5.07. Our model-based fair value is C$0.4590, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Zedcor Energy right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.6460). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$0.3400 to C$0.6460) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Zedcor Energy (ZDC) come from?
Earnings per share at Zedcor Energy grew −11.4 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −21.1 %, EBIT margin +4.2 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Zedcor Energy
How large is the market capitalisation of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
The market capitalisation of Zedcor Energy is C$591M (≈ $418M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Zedcor Energy is 507.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Zedcor Energy is 23.4 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
Earnings per share at Zedcor Energy are C$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 507.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
The net margin of Zedcor Energy is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Zedcor Energy is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Zedcor Energy is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
The operating margin of Zedcor Energy is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
Revenue at Zedcor Energy is growing +69.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +38.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Zedcor Energy (ZDC)?
Earnings per share at Zedcor Energy are growing +149% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Zedcor Energy (ZDC) generate?
The free cash flow of Zedcor Energy is −C$48.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Zedcor Energy (ZDC) carry?
The net debt of Zedcor Energy is C$38.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026