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Data-driven stock valuation

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR (ZSHGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $1.7B · ISIN US98952D1037

At a glance

ZG Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR logo Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR ZSHGY · US
Price$4.14
Fair Value$7.52
Upside+81.5%
Quality53/100

A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of $7.52.

As of Aug 25, 2026, the fair value of Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR is $7.52 per share against a price of $4.14, so the fair value sits 81% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
·12.14% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 8 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $5.01 to $11.09

Fair value as of: Aug 25, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 25, 2026, revised from $7.48 to $7.52 (+0.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −26.4% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range ($5.01 to $11.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$84.60 $4.14 Fair Value $7.52 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.14 – $84.60 · fair‑value band $5.01 – $11.09 · the $4.14 price screens below the $7.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR (ZSHGY) currently trades at $4.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.52, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 12 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR generated revenue of $164B at a net margin of −1.0%. Revenue grew 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −4.2%. Net debt stands at $27.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 25, 2026

Scenario range: $5.01 (bear) to $11.09 (bull), the price of $4.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 81%, ZSHGY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $243.43 $365.32 $541.39 80
Growth DCF $242.11 $353.16 $505.78 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $139.68 $180.26 $225.44 77
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $243.43 $365.32 $541.39 80
5Y Revenue Exit $226.48 $351.85 $516.02 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $139.68 $180.26 $225.44 77
10Y Revenue Exit $225.19 $337.59 $497.75 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $178.73 $225.39 $284.35 70
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $80.36 $97.49 $114.63 67
EV/Revenue $223.04 $306.23 $389.41 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $92.31 $123.70 $184.62 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $242.11 $353.16 $505.78 78
Rev-Margin DCF $226.48 $350.97 $504.56 72

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($350.97) versus Multiples ($97.49). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

EPS (TTM) $−1.05
Dividend yield 12.1%
Net margin −1.0% FY2025
Return on equity −4.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% avg 5y
Operating margin −1.4% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $164B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.6% 3y avg −3.8%
EPS growth (YoY) −35.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $5.0B FY2025
Net debt $27.5B FY2025 · ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale and service of motor vehicles in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the sale and service of motor vehicles in the People's Republic of China. The company operates 4S dealerships for various automobile brands consisting of luxury automobile brands, including Mercedes-Benz, Lexus, BMW, Audi, Jaguar Land Rover, Porsche, Volvo and AITO, as well as mid-to-high end automobile brands, such as Toyota, Nissan, and Honda. It also provides spare parts, automobile accessories, repair and maintenance services, and other automobile-related products and services. In addition, the company offers sales and service of automobile insurance; and provision of other services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dalian, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of 160B CNY in FY2025 versus 175B CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was −1.6B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 26/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$160B
Latest YoY
−4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (17Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.3%
EBIT margin (trend) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.0% (2020) → −0.8% (2025)
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −2.2%/yr
FY21 175B CNY
FY22 180B CNY
FY23 179B CNY
FY24 168B CNY
FY25 160B CNY
Net income
FY21 8.3B CNY
FY22 6.7B CNY
FY23 5.0B CNY
FY24 3.2B CNY
FY25 −1.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +17.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +12.4 %

of which total revenue +12.9 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %

EBIT margin −1.2 %
Tax rate +0.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +4.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ZSHGY

Peer Group

Auto & Truck Dealerships · 99 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +82% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 12.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.31× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto & Truck Dealerships median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.01× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 28
FUTURE8 · sector 9
PAST0 · sector 20
HEALTH84 · sector 90
DIVIDEND100 · sector 71

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Carvana Co CVNA $74.04 $17.59 −76%
Penske Automotive Group PAG $219.62 $217.41 −1%
Hotai Motor Co 2207 524.00 TWD 558.82 TWD +7%
CarMax, Inc KMX $63.29 $29.44 −53%
Lithia Motors, Inc LAD $369.61 $498.50 +35%
AutoNation, Inc AN $196.57 $329.77 +68%
AUTO1 Group AG1 €21.78 €5.84 −73%
Rush Enterprises, Inc RUSHA $76.27 $66.27 −13%
Valvoline Inc VVV $33.96 $24.55 −28%
Eagers Automotive Limited APE A$23.44 A$17.66 −25%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR (ZSHGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.52 versus a price of $4.14, about +81% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ZSHGY?
Our model-based fair value for Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR is $7.52 (as of Aug 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.14.
What is the quality score of ZSHGY?
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR (ZSHGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.52 (as of Aug 25, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.01, optimistic scenario $11.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.52, about +81% upside versus a price of $4.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.01, optimistic scenario $11.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR (ZSHGY)?
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $164B (latest available figure, as of Aug 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ZSHGY?
The net profit margin of Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR is about −1.0%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.14% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 25, 2026).
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