Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd stock ¥11.42, price ¥12.19, that is 6.3% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.34 – ¥19.84 · fair‑value band ¥7.92 – ¥14.66 · the ¥12.19 price screens above the ¥11.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells primary aluminum, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, alumina, and aluminum foil products in China and internationally.
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It operates through Original Aluminum Plate, High-Purity Aluminum, Aluminum Oxide Plate, Aluminum Foil and Aluminum Foil Stock, and other segments.
The company offers bauxite, anode carbon, electrolytic aluminum, and power battery aluminum foil, as well as power generation and aluminum deep processing services.
It also provides aluminum ingots; carbon and its products; furnace charge products; aluminum alloy materials; aluminum hydroxide; comprehensive services for the energy industry chain; aluminum smelting; high-precision aluminum engineering-related technical services; and vocational and technical training services.
In addition, it engages in the wholesale of metals and metal ores; construction and operation of railways; quicklime mining and sales; unit logistics management services; and international trade and foreign investment activities.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd was founded in 1997 and is based in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) currently trades at ¥12.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.42, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥21.02 per share, and 16 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥12.19 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.06, and 9 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥7.92 (bear) to ¥14.66 (bull), the price of ¥12.19 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd reported revenue of 29.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 28.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +0.7%/yr. Reported net income was 4.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 56.4B CNY (≈ $8.5B) Mid · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.72 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 22.8% · Return on equity 25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −6%, 002532 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥7.92Fair Value ¥11.42Bull¥14.66
Price ¥12.19 · Downside -6.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.9905 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥15.16¥21.51¥30.1381
Growth DCF¥15.50¥21.29¥28.7879
Owner Earnings¥8.51¥12.05¥16.8677
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥15.16¥21.51¥30.1381
Owner Earnings¥8.51¥12.05¥16.8677
5Y Revenue Exit¥10.50¥14.73¥19.8573
5Y EBITDA Exit¥15.01¥22.81¥31.5475
5Y P/E Exit¥14.73¥22.32¥29.9171
10Y Revenue Exit¥11.97¥16.04¥20.9468
10Y EBITDA Exit¥14.92¥21.35¥29.2569
10Y P/E Exit¥14.76¥21.02¥28.0964
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥7.08¥17.55¥22.7465
PEG = 1.0¥3.18¥4.55¥5.9157
EPV¥10.56¥12.18¥13.5674
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥4.38¥7.75¥11.8367
DDM Multi-Stage¥4.38¥6.46¥8.5967
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥16.39¥21.86¥27.3263
P/S Multiple¥9.56¥12.75¥15.9358
P/B Multiple¥7.47¥9.96¥12.4655
EV/EBIT¥16.59¥22.29¥27.9966
EV/EBITDA¥16.40¥22.03¥27.6667
EV/Revenue¥7.53¥10.97¥14.4253
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥3.03¥4.06¥6.0654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥15.50¥21.29¥28.7879
Rev-Margin DCF¥10.50¥14.96¥19.8873
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥6.50¥8.06¥11.1975
ROIC Compounder¥11.00¥13.36¥15.9172
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥12.60¥18.00¥23.4067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+12.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.8% vs 16.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 21%
2025 sits 82% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.2% a year for the price and +5.0% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Integrated low-cost model strengthened by completed capacity upgrades and ramping foil plus deep-processing volumes forms the main strength, while exposure to aluminum price pressure from new overseas supply remains the key weakness.
Main risk: New overseas supply pressuring aluminum prices would hit margins via potential squeeze in the cycle ahead.
Tianshan Aluminum completed its 1.4 million ton green electrolytic aluminum capacity upgrade in July. Foil and deep processing volumes are ramping up at the same time. This bolsters the integrated low-cost model, yet new overseas supply could still pressure aluminum prices in the cycle ahead. Will the downstream growth and cost edge deliver more than any margin squeeze from price swings?
Compare Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−6.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)41.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002532
Frequently asked questions
Is Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥11.42 versus a price of ¥12.19, about 6% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 002532?
Our model-based fair value for Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is ¥11.42 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥12.19.
What is the quality score of 002532?
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥11.42 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.92, optimistic scenario ¥14.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥11.42, about 6% lower versus a price of ¥12.19 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ¥7.92, optimistic scenario ¥14.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002532 use?
Our models discount Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd that is -5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies -5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (-5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.55 %: that much free cash flow Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd it is ¥11.42 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of ¥12.19. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, 002532 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥12.19, fair value ¥11.42, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002532?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥12.19); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥11.42). For Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd the two are ¥0.7678 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd worth?
The market values Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd at about 56.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is ¥12.19; our models calculate a fair value of ¥11.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002532?
Our models span a range for Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.92, base ¥11.42, optimistic ¥14.66 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price ¥12.19). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002532?
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥11.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 13.5. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 25.6%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002532 from its 52-week high?
Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd trades at ¥12.19, about 39% below its 52-week high of ¥19.84 and 17% above the low of ¥10.43 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥11.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Aluminum Corporation, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price ¥12.19, calculated fair value ¥11.42 (−6%), Quality Score 74/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002532 calculated?
We run Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥11.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥12.19. Our model-based fair value is ¥11.42, about 6% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (¥7.92 to ¥14.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) come from?
Earnings per share at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd grew +13.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −9.3 %, EBIT margin +29.6 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The market capitalisation of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 56.4B CNY (≈ $8.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 1.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
Earnings per share at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd are ¥1.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The dividend yield of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 4.5% (payout 32.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The net margin of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 22.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
The operating margin of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 32.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
Revenue at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is growing +41.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532)?
Earnings per share at Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd are growing +74.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd (002532) carry?
The net debt of Tianshan Aluminum Group Co Ltd is 2.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026