Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd stock ¥17.67, price ¥26.22, that is 32.6% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.86 – ¥44.55 · fair‑value band ¥12.37 – ¥22.97 · the ¥26.22 price screens above the ¥17.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Yunnan Yuntianhua Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Yunnan Yuntianhua Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells fertilizers in China and internationally.
Show moreShow less
It offers phosphate, commercial, and compound fertilizers; commercial grain; urea; polyoxymethylene; coal; feed grade calcium phosphate; phosphate rock; phosphoric acid; liquid ammonia; pentaerythritol; and other chemical raw materials and products.
The company is also involved in phosphate mining and beneficiation; and commerce and logistics. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1997 and is based in Kunming, China.
Stock analysis
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096) currently trades at ¥26.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥17.67, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of ¥71.72 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥26.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥7.26, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥12.37 (bear) to ¥22.97 (bull), the price of ¥26.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd reported revenue of 48.3B CNY in FY2025 versus 64.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound −6.8%/yr. Reported net income was 5.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 47.8B CNY (≈ $7.2B) Mid · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) ¥2.93 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 11.5% · Return on equity 21.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −33%, 600096 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥12.37Fair Value ¥17.67Bull¥22.97
Price ¥26.22 · Downside -32.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.31 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF¥49.13¥90.15¥161.8677
Growth DCF¥48.48¥85.24¥146.9976
5Y EBITDA Exit¥39.96¥69.36¥106.3174
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥49.13¥90.15¥161.8677
Owner Earnings¥48.57¥89.12¥160.0073
5Y Revenue Exit¥34.82¥58.57¥90.6071
5Y EBITDA Exit¥39.96¥69.36¥106.3174
5Y P/E Exit¥38.76¥66.83¥99.0970
10Y Revenue Exit¥38.30¥62.60¥99.6765
10Y EBITDA Exit¥42.65¥70.50¥112.9067
10Y P/E Exit¥41.85¥68.65¥106.8263
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥19.23¥94.91¥130.8764
Lynch FV¥25.56¥36.51¥47.4761
PEG = 1.0¥25.56¥36.51¥47.4757
EPV¥25.91¥30.06¥33.6574
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥14.40¥29.31¥45.3866
DDM Multi-Stage¥14.40¥25.03¥30.8567
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥36.06¥48.08¥60.1063
P/S Multiple¥29.80¥39.74¥49.6758
P/B Multiple¥21.18¥28.24¥35.2955
EV/EBIT¥30.60¥42.12¥53.6466
EV/EBITDA¥34.02¥46.68¥59.3367
EV/Revenue¥23.86¥35.78¥47.7053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥5.42¥7.26¥10.8454
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥48.48¥85.24¥146.9976
Rev-Margin DCF¥34.82¥58.19¥89.0171
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥17.59¥22.13¥35.3874
ROIC Compounder¥29.63¥39.89¥53.2071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥35.34¥50.49¥65.6467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+76.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+71.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Per share before 2006divided by the spin-off factor 1.12
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 71.5% / 41.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.3% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Core phosphate fertilizer operations deliver steadier profits as main strength, yet the business remains constrained by a weak moat and thin differentiation in commoditized agricultural inputs.
Main risk: Lower-cost producers such as OCP Group from Morocco or Ma’aden from Saudi Arabia could capture export market share or force price reductions on phosphate fertilizers and erode the company’s margins.
Bull case: By completing its phosphogypsum sulfuric acid and Zhenxiong mining projects the company could materially cut external sulfur needs and strengthen its cost position against international rivals.
Bear case: If cheaper global suppliers expand aggressively and sulfur prices stay elevated the company’s export volumes and fertilizer margins could remain under sustained pressure.
The company scaled back its trading business, cutting revenue even as core phosphate fertilizer operations delivered steadier profits. Higher sulfur input costs remain a clear drag on the integrated chain. Will tighter procurement and mining integration shield margins from commodity swings, or will raw material volatility continue to limit upside?
Compare Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−32.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−9.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600096
Frequently asked questions
Is Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥17.67 versus a price of ¥26.22, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 600096?
Our model-based fair value for Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is ¥17.67 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥26.22.
What is the quality score of 600096?
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥17.67 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥12.37, optimistic scenario ¥22.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥17.67, about 33% lower versus a price of ¥26.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥12.37, optimistic scenario ¥22.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 46.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥1.40 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 21, 2026. The payout ratio is 47.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.58 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600096 use?
Our models discount Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd that is -8.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd grew -1.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (-8.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.76 %: that much free cash flow Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd it is ¥17.67 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of ¥26.22. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, 600096 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥26.22, fair value ¥17.67, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600096?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥26.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥17.67). For Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd the two are ¥8.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd worth?
The market values Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd at about 47.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is ¥26.22; our models calculate a fair value of ¥17.67 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600096?
Our models span a range for Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥12.37, base ¥17.67, optimistic ¥22.97 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price ¥26.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600096?
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥17.67 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 12.2. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 21.4%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600096 from its 52-week high?
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd trades at ¥26.22, about 41% below its 52-week high of ¥44.55 and 7% above the low of ¥24.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥17.67 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price ¥26.22, calculated fair value ¥17.67 (−33%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600096 calculated?
We run Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥17.67 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥26.22. Our model-based fair value is ¥17.67, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥22.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (¥12.37 to ¥22.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The market capitalisation of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 47.8B CNY (≈ $7.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 1.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
Earnings per share at Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd are ¥2.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The dividend yield of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 5.3% (payout 47.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The net margin of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 11.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
The operating margin of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 16.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
Revenue at Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is growing −9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096)?
Earnings per share at Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd are growing +2.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd (600096) carry?
The net debt of Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd is 7.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Yunnan Yuntianhua Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 8, 2026