Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Birkenstock Holding plc stock $48.51, price $37.32, upside +30.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range $30.01 – $63.57 · fair‑value band $28.99 – $87.28 · the $37.32 price screens below the $48.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers footbed-based products, including sandals and closed-toe shoes; and skincare products and accessories.
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The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. The company was formerly known as Birkenstock Group Limited. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Birkenstock Holding plc operates as a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.
Stock analysis
Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) currently trades at $37.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.51, implying the stock looks roughly 23% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $67.14 per share, and 14 of the 22 models we run sit above the $37.32 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $23.59, and 8 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $28.99 (bear) to $87.28 (bull), the price of $37.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Birkenstock Holding plc reported revenue of €2.1B in FY2025 versus €962M in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was €348M in FY2025, compounding +31.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.8B Mid · P/E ratio 16.8 · P/S ratio 2.68 · EPS (TTM) $2.22 · Net margin 14.8% · Return on equity 12.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 29.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 30%, BIRK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.99Fair Value $48.51Bull$87.28
Price $37.32 · Upside +30.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.22 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.1B and none bought.
SaleJames Michael ChuDirector28,146,226 shares at $39.18$1.1BAug 17, 2026
SaleMehdi Nico BouyakhfPresident EMEA90,000 shares at $42.55$3.8MJun 8, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+26.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 26%
2025 sits 83% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.2% a year for the price and +8.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Brand heritage since 1774 and vertical European production deliver tight quality control that supports durable earnings, while cautious wholesale partners remain the main weak point.
Main risk: Cheaper alternatives from brands like Cushionaire or fast-fashion platforms such as Temu and Amazon could erode Birkenstock's pricing power and margins by offering similar cork-footbed comfort at lower prices.
Bull case: Birkenstock could leverage its brand strength and in-house manufacturing to differentiate through quality and scarcity while selectively raising prices or expanding direct channels to offset competitive and tariff pressures.
Bear case: If cheaper dupes proliferate and tariffs persist without full offset, Birkenstock might see sustained margin compression and slower volume growth as customers shift to lower-priced alternatives.
Birkenstock’s brand with roots in 1774 and its vertical integration in European production give it tight control over quality and supply chains. This foundation supports durable earnings as the company broadens its range into closed-toe styles for year-round wear. At the same time, some wholesale partners appear more cautious amid consumer sector pressures. Will the brand’s strength deliver more growth than these headwinds take away?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Footwear & Accessories · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+30.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.4% · Above median
Return on assets7.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.40× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Footwear & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.8× · Pricier than median
P/B2.23× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.68× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.1× · Pricier than median
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Is Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $48.51 versus a price of $37.32, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BIRK?
Our model-based fair value for Birkenstock Holding plc is $48.51 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.32.
What is the quality score of BIRK?
Birkenstock Holding plc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $48.51 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.99, optimistic scenario $87.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Birkenstock Holding plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $48.51, about +30% upside versus a price of $37.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.99, optimistic scenario $87.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Birkenstock Holding plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Birkenstock Holding plc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BIRK use?
Our models discount Birkenstock Holding plc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Birkenstock Holding plc that is +14.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Birkenstock Holding plc grew +23.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +14.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Birkenstock Holding plc (+14.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.74 %: that much free cash flow Birkenstock Holding plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Birkenstock Holding plc it is $48.51 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $37.32. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Birkenstock Holding plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, BIRK trades below its calculated fair value: price $37.32, fair value $48.51, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BIRK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($48.51). For Birkenstock Holding plc the two are $11.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Birkenstock Holding plc worth?
The market values Birkenstock Holding plc at about $6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $37.32; our models calculate a fair value of $48.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BIRK?
Our models span a range for Birkenstock Holding plc: cautious scenario $28.99, base $48.51, optimistic $87.28 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $37.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BIRK?
Birkenstock Holding plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $48.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 2.2, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
What is the PEG ratio of BIRK?
The PEG ratio of Birkenstock Holding plc is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Birkenstock Holding plc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 12.4%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BIRK from its 52-week high?
Birkenstock Holding plc trades at $37.32, about 24% below its 52-week high of $48.97 and 24% above the low of $30.01 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $48.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Birkenstock Holding plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value NIKE, Inc, adidas AG, On Holding, Deckers Outdoor Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Birkenstock Holding plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $37.32, calculated fair value $48.51 (+30%), Quality Score 72/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BIRK calculated?
We run Birkenstock Holding plc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $48.51 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Birkenstock Holding plc currently trades 23% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $37.32. Our model-based fair value is $48.51, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Birkenstock Holding plc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($28.99 to $87.28). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (72/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Birkenstock Holding plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The market capitalisation of Birkenstock Holding plc is $6.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Birkenstock Holding plc is 2.68 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Earnings per share at Birkenstock Holding plc are $2.22 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The net margin of Birkenstock Holding plc is 14.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Birkenstock Holding plc is 12.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Birkenstock Holding plc is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
The operating margin of Birkenstock Holding plc is 29.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Revenue at Birkenstock Holding plc is growing +13.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK)?
Earnings per share at Birkenstock Holding plc are growing −13.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) carry?
The net debt of Birkenstock Holding plc is €980M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026