Brixmor Property (BRX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Brixmor Property stock $18.82, price $30.02, that is 37.3% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.27 – $32.69 · fair‑value band $11.57 – $26.75 · the $30.02 price screens above the $18.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Follow Brixmor Property in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Brixmor Property is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Brixmor Property Group Inc. owns and operates a high-quality, national portfolio of open-air shopping centers. The Company's 344 retail centers comprise approximately 62 million square feet of prime retail space in established trade areas.
Show moreShow less
Brixmor's properties reflect their vision (to be the center of the communities we serve) and are home to a diverse mix of thriving national, regional and local retailers.
Brixmor is a valued partner to a broad range of retailers, including The TJX Companies, The Kroger Co., Publix Super Markets and Ross Stores. Brixmor Property Group Inc. was established on May 27, 2011 and is based in New York, United States.
Stock analysis
Brixmor Property (BRX) currently trades at $30.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.82, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $20.57 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the $30.02 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.30, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.57 (bear) to $26.75 (bull), the price of $30.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Brixmor Property reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $386M in FY2025, compounding +9.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.2B Mid · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 6.50 · EPS (TTM) $1.38 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 30.0% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −37%, BRX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.57Fair Value $18.82Bull$26.75
Price $30.02 · Downside -37.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1795 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $267,300 and none bought.
SaleMichael B BermanDirector9,000 shares at $29.70$267,300Aug 12, 2026
SaleJulie BowermanDirector8,000 shares at $29.03$232,240Feb 12, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.8% vs 7.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.64% → 37%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.5% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (69 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Brixmor gains from efficient addition of grocery-anchored centers in established markets but its limited durable moat and lack of standout advantages constrain business quality.
Main risk: Elevated interest rates or challenges refinancing its debt load could raise borrowing costs and compress margins across its grocery-anchored retail centers.
Bull case: Successful debt management through its recent term loan and Slate acquisition could lower leverage further while AI efficiencies speed leasing and cut costs across the expanded portfolio.
Bear case: Persistent high rates or refinancing hurdles could raise interest expenses sharply and if AI-related issues hit multiple tenants it might erode occupancy and cash flow from its centers.
Brixmor is adding dozens of grocery-anchored centers through its Slate Grocery REIT deal, buying 23 outright while using a joint venture for the rest to keep capital use efficient and gain immediate accretion. The move plays to its retail REIT strengths in established markets. With our models seeing the shares as overvalued, will the scale and operating leverage from this portfolio outweigh the pressure from climbing borrowing costs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−37.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)30.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)38.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.07× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.50× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA14.7× · Pricier than median
PEG1.68× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)28· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)57· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)17· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)78· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Brixmor Property Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BRX
Frequently asked questions
Is Brixmor Property (BRX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.82 versus a price of $30.02, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BRX?
Our model-based fair value for Brixmor Property is $18.82 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.02.
What is the quality score of BRX?
Brixmor Property has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Brixmor Property (BRX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.82 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.57, optimistic scenario $26.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Brixmor Property stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.82, about 37% lower versus a price of $30.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.57, optimistic scenario $26.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
Brixmor Property reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Brixmor Property pay a dividend?
Brixmor Property currently shows a dividend yield of 3.90% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Brixmor Property (BRX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Brixmor Property pays a dividend of $1.17 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Jan 5, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 115% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 84.8%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.82 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Brixmor Property (BRX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Brixmor Property would have to grow free cash flow by +11.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.4 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BRX use?
Our models discount Brixmor Property at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Brixmor Property that is +11.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Brixmor Property (BRX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Brixmor Property grew +5.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Brixmor Property (BRX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Brixmor Property (+11.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.05 %: that much free cash flow Brixmor Property produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Brixmor Property it is $18.82 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of $30.02. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Brixmor Property stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, BRX trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.02, fair value $18.82, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BRX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.82). For Brixmor Property the two are $11.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Brixmor Property worth?
The market values Brixmor Property at about $9.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is $30.02; our models calculate a fair value of $18.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BRX?
Our models span a range for Brixmor Property: cautious scenario $11.57, base $18.82, optimistic $26.75 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price $30.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BRX?
Brixmor Property trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.82 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 32.6 (reported for FY2025: 23.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023, FY2025 ex one-offs: 23.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 3.1, P/S 6.5, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
What is the PEG ratio of BRX?
The PEG ratio of Brixmor Property is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Brixmor Property (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 1.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BRX from its 52-week high?
Brixmor Property trades at $30.02, about 8% below its 52-week high of $32.69 and 24% above the low of $24.12 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Brixmor Property?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Brixmor Property stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price $30.02, calculated fair value $18.82 (−37%), Quality Score 56/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BRX calculated?
We run Brixmor Property through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $18.82 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Brixmor Property itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $30.02. Our model-based fair value is $18.82, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Brixmor Property right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($11.57 to $26.75) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Brixmor Property
How large is the market capitalisation of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The market capitalisation of Brixmor Property is $9.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Brixmor Property is 6.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
Earnings per share at Brixmor Property are $1.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The dividend yield of Brixmor Property is 3.9% (payout 115%, on adjusted earnings, reported 84.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The net margin of Brixmor Property is 30.0% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2025 20.7%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Brixmor Property is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Brixmor Property is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Brixmor Property (BRX)?
The operating margin of Brixmor Property is 38.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Brixmor Property (BRX)?
Revenue at Brixmor Property is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Brixmor Property (BRX)?
Earnings per share at Brixmor Property are growing −8.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Brixmor Property (BRX) carry?
The net debt of Brixmor Property is $5.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Brixmor Property in the live analysis
One click puts Brixmor Property on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 2, 2026