Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Boyd Gaming Corporation stock $129, price $76.57, upside +69.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $44.25 – $91.02 · fair‑value band $103.18 – $191.62 · the $76.57 price screens below the $129.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Boyd Gaming Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-jurisdictional gaming company in the United States and Canada. The company operates through Las Vegas Locals, Downtown Las Vegas, Midwest & South, and Online segments.
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It owns and operates casinos; Boyd Interactive, an online casino gaming business; and a travel agency. The company was formerly known as The Boyd Group and changed its name to Boyd Gaming Corporation in April 1993. Boyd Gaming Corporation was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock analysis
Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) currently trades at $76.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $129.48, implying the stock looks roughly 41% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $480.32 per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the $76.57 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $62.33, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $103.18 (bear) to $191.62 (bull), the price of $76.57 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Boyd Gaming Corporation reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $3.4B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding +41.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B Mid · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 1.40 · EPS (TTM) $6.81 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 93.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at 69%, BYD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$103.18Fair Value $129.48Bull$191.62
Price $76.57 · Upside +69.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.15 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleKeith SmithPresident and CEO, Director100,000 shares at $85.90$8.6MJun 3, 2026
SaleChristine J. SpadaforDirector1,237 shares at $80.91$100,086May 13, 2026
SaleStephen S. ThompsonChief Administrative Officer19,530 shares at $83.59$1.6MFeb 27, 2026
SaleWilliam R BoydDirector30,000 shares at $84.84$2.5MFeb 18, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +21.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.52.6% vs 27.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 269% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.1% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business displays limited durable competitive signals with profitability inflated by a one-off gain while the project pipeline provides the main area of potential resilience.
Main risk: Changes in state regulations or failure to obtain or maintain gaming licenses could restrict operations or increase compliance costs at its casino properties across multiple jurisdictions.
Bull case: By maintaining strong compliance and leveraging its diversified portfolio across states, the company could secure approvals for new projects like the Norfolk resort and expand its online offerings profitably.
Bear case: Heightened regulatory scrutiny or license issues in key markets combined with refinancing challenges could limit expansion, raise costs substantially and reduce the viability of its resort and casino operations over time.
Deutsche Bank upgraded Boyd Gaming last week after concluding that August’s softer revenue stemmed mainly from calendar shifts rather than weaker demand. The company still faces a property-tax hit at one location and ongoing renovation work ahead of its October 22 earnings release. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the improving calendar and project pipeline more than offset those near-term drags?
Compare Boyd Gaming Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Resorts & Casinos · 62 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+69.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)93.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets26.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.78× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Resorts & Casinos median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)11.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.20× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.40× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.8× · Pricier than median
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Is Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $129.48 versus a price of $76.57, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BYD?
Our model-based fair value for Boyd Gaming Corporation is $129.48 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $76.57.
What is the quality score of BYD?
Boyd Gaming Corporation has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $129.48 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $103.18, optimistic scenario $191.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Boyd Gaming Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $129.48, about +69% upside versus a price of $76.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $103.18, optimistic scenario $191.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Boyd Gaming Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Boyd Gaming Corporation pay a dividend?
Boyd Gaming Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Boyd Gaming Corporation pays a dividend of $0.78 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 36.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 11.5%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.85 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Boyd Gaming Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BYD use?
Our models discount Boyd Gaming Corporation at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Boyd Gaming Corporation that is +9.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Boyd Gaming Corporation grew +13.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Boyd Gaming Corporation (+9.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.78 %: that much free cash flow Boyd Gaming Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Boyd Gaming Corporation it is $129.48 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $76.57. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Boyd Gaming Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, BYD trades below its calculated fair value: price $76.57, fair value $129.48, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BYD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($76.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($129.48). For Boyd Gaming Corporation the two are $52.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Boyd Gaming Corporation worth?
The market values Boyd Gaming Corporation at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $76.57; our models calculate a fair value of $129.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BYD?
Our models span a range for Boyd Gaming Corporation: cautious scenario $103.18, base $129.48, optimistic $191.62 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $76.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BYD?
Boyd Gaming Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $129.48 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.4 (reported for FY2025: 3.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 11.7. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 2.2, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of BYD?
The PEG ratio of Boyd Gaming Corporation is 3.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Boyd Gaming Corporation (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 93.1%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BYD from its 52-week high?
Boyd Gaming Corporation trades at $76.57, about 16% below its 52-week high of $91.02 and 16% above the low of $66.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $129.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Boyd Gaming Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Las Vegas Sands Corp, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Sands China Ltd, Wynn Resorts, Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Boyd Gaming Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $76.57, calculated fair value $129.48 (+69%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BYD calculated?
We run Boyd Gaming Corporation through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $129.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Boyd Gaming Corporation currently trades 41% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $76.57. Our model-based fair value is $129.48, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Boyd Gaming Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($103.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($103.18 to $191.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Boyd Gaming Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The market capitalisation of Boyd Gaming Corporation is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Boyd Gaming Corporation is 1.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Earnings per share at Boyd Gaming Corporation are $6.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The dividend yield of Boyd Gaming Corporation is 1.0% (payout 36.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 11.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The net margin of Boyd Gaming Corporation is 12.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Boyd Gaming Corporation is 93.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Boyd Gaming Corporation is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
The operating margin of Boyd Gaming Corporation is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Revenue at Boyd Gaming Corporation is growing −1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)?
Earnings per share at Boyd Gaming Corporation are growing −90.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) carry?
The net debt of Boyd Gaming Corporation is $2.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026