Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cavco Industries Inc stock $702, price $639, upside +10.0%, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $184.55 – $697.76 · fair‑value band $462.37 – $913.13 · the $638.55 price screens below the $702.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Cavco Industries, Inc. designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments: Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services.
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The company produces park model RVs; vacation cabins; and factory-built commercial structures, including apartment buildings, condominiums, hotels, workforce housing, schools, and housing for the United States military troops.
It also produces various modular homes, which include single and multi-section ranch, split-level, and Cape Cod style homes, as well as two- and three-story homes, and multi-family units.
In addition, the company provides conforming and non-conforming mortgages and home-only loans to purchasers of various brands of factory-built homes sold by company-owned retail stores, as well as various independent distributors, builders, communities, and developers.
Further, it offers property and casualty insurance to owners of manufactured housing industry. The company distributes its products through a network of independent and company-owned retailers, planned community operators, and residential developers.
The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) currently trades at $638.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $702.41, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $598.25 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $638.55 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $256.28, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $462.37 (bear) to $913.13 (bull), the price of $638.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cavco Industries Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2026 versus $1.6B in FY2022, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $191M in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B Mid · P/E ratio 27.1 · P/S ratio 2.21 · EPS (TTM) $23.60 · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 16.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 10%, CVCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$462.37Fair Value $702.41Bull$913.13
Price $638.55 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($14.42 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.0M and none bought.
SaleRichard A KerleyDirector2× since Jun 9, 2026: 959 shares, avg. $630.93$605,063Nov 4, 2026
SaleSeth G SchuknechtEVP, General Counsel542 shares at $685.00$371,270Nov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePaul BigbeeChief Accounting Officer2× since May 28, 2026: 542 shares, avg. $571.98$310,014Aug 18, 2026
SaleLisa Lynn DanielsDirector30 shares at $569.96$17,099Jul 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAllison AdenEVP, CFO & Treasurer3× since May 15, 2026: 2,810 shares, avg. $606.48$1.7MJun 25, 2026
SaleBrian R CiraPresident,Manufactured Housing31 shares at $509.17$15,784May 22, 2026
BuyWilliam C BoorPresident & CEO, Director1,000 shares at $495.00$495,000Feb 4, 2026
BuyDavid A. GreenblattDirector500 shares at $469.45$234,725Feb 4, 2026
BuySteven W MosterDirector300 shares at $456.23$136,869Feb 2, 2026
Plus 39 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.8% vs 22.5%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.3% a year for the price and +4.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Factory-built homes with lower costs and faster timelines form the main strength, while vulnerability to broader housing market pressures limits upside potential.
Main risk: Clayton Homes with roughly half the US manufactured housing market could use its superior purchasing power and distribution network to undercut Cavco on prices or capture more dealer relationships and customers.
Bull case: Cavco could leverage its new chassis-free designs and capacity expansions to better integrate into urban and suburban neighborhoods thereby gaining share from site-built competitors despite Clayton's scale.
Bear case: If Clayton Homes exploits its cost advantages to lower prices and zoning barriers persist, Cavco might lose dealer networks and see its factory utilization and margins decline over time.
Cavco builds factory-built homes that can deliver lower costs and faster timelines than traditional site-built options in residential construction. Recent analyst commentary points to improving demand and margin recovery through higher selling prices and better operations, alongside new capacity additions. Will these efficiencies help the company gain ground in a competitive sector, or will broader housing market pressures limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Residential Construction · 61 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)9.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.60× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.21× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)21.9× · Pricier than median
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Is Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $702.41 versus a price of $638.55, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CVCO?
Our model-based fair value for Cavco Industries Inc is $702.41 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $638.55.
What is the quality score of CVCO?
Cavco Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $702.41 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $462.37, optimistic scenario $913.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cavco Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $702.41, about +10% upside versus a price of $638.55 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $462.37, optimistic scenario $913.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
Cavco Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cavco Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CVCO use?
Our models discount Cavco Industries Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cavco Industries Inc that is +11.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cavco Industries Inc grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cavco Industries Inc (+11.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.57 %: that much free cash flow Cavco Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cavco Industries Inc it is $702.41 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $638.55. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Cavco Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, CVCO trades below its calculated fair value: price $638.55, fair value $702.41, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CVCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($638.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($702.41). For Cavco Industries Inc the two are $63.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cavco Industries Inc worth?
The market values Cavco Industries Inc at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $638.55; our models calculate a fair value of $702.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CVCO?
Our models span a range for Cavco Industries Inc: cautious scenario $462.37, base $702.41, optimistic $913.13 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $638.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CVCO?
Cavco Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.1 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $702.41 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 21.0. Other multiples: PEG 45.8, P/B 4.6, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 19.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CVCO?
The PEG ratio of Cavco Industries Inc is 45.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cavco Industries Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 16.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CVCO from its 52-week high?
Cavco Industries Inc trades at $638.55, about 8% below its 52-week high of $697.76 and 40% above the low of $455.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $702.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cavco Industries Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value D.R. Horton, Inc, PulteGroup, Inc, Lennar Corporation, NVR, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cavco Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $638.55, calculated fair value $702.41 (+10%), Quality Score 79/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CVCO calculated?
We run Cavco Industries Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $702.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Cavco Industries Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $638.55. Our model-based fair value is $702.41, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cavco Industries Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($462.37 to $913.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) come from?
Earnings per share at Cavco Industries Inc grew +22.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.9 %, EBIT margin +4.1 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cavco Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
The market capitalisation of Cavco Industries Inc is $5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cavco Industries Inc is 2.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
Earnings per share at Cavco Industries Inc are $23.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
The net margin of Cavco Industries Inc is 7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cavco Industries Inc is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cavco Industries Inc is 16.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
The operating margin of Cavco Industries Inc is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
Revenue at Cavco Industries Inc is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO)?
Earnings per share at Cavco Industries Inc are growing −15.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Cavco Industries Inc (CVCO) hold?
Cavco Industries Inc holds more cash than debt, $226M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026