KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of KGHM Polska Miedz SA stock PLN 156, price PLN 280, that is 44.1% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 82.35 PLN – 390.32 PLN · fair‑value band 141.66 PLN – 190.49 PLN · the 279.80 PLN price screens above the 156.35 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. engages in the exploration and mining of copper, nickel, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals in Poland and internationally.
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The company offers copper cathodes, wire rod, Cu - Ofe wire, Cu - Ag wire, and granules; silver and gold; molybdenum; rhenium; nickel; and lead, sulphuric acid, copper and nickel sulphate, and selenium products, as well as platinum, palladium, and rock salt products.
It holds a portfolio of mines located in Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa, and the United States. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Lubin, Poland.
Stock analysis
KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) currently trades at 279.80 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 156.35 PLN, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 275.91 PLN per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the 279.80 PLN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 17.63 PLN, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 141.66 PLN (bear) to 190.49 PLN (bull), the price of 279.80 PLN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
KGHM Polska Miedz SA reported revenue of 36.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 29.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.7B PLN in FY2025, compounding −12.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 56.0B PLN (≈ $14.3B) Large · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) 43.45 PLN · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 20.0% · Return on equity 24.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −44%, KGH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear141.66 PLNFair Value 156.35 PLNBull190.49 PLN
Price 279.80 PLN · Downside -44.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (35.51 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.4% vs 4.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 11%
AI conclusion: Reliable Polish copper output forms the main strength, yet thin differentiation and negative free cash flow leave results exposed to commodity swings.
Main risk: Rising copper prices or advancing data-center designs could accelerate substitution by aluminum in power grids and wiring or by fiber optics in interconnects, reducing demand for KGHM's copper output.
Bull case: KGHM could leverage its Polish base and R&D to develop higher-value copper products or recycling processes that maintain demand even as substitution pressures rise in some segments.
Bear case: Widespread adoption of aluminum wiring and optical interconnects in grids and AI infrastructure combined with sustained high Polish taxes could shrink KGHM's addressable market and compress margins over the long term.
KGHM maintains steady copper production in Poland while sales from its international assets slipped 4 percent year on year in September due to lower ore quality. Metal price movements still drive most of the swings in results despite the group's long-term projects. Will domestic reliability prove enough to stabilize performance, or will international shortfalls and commodity swings continue to dominate?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 57 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−44.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)20.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)49.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)6.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.70× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.29× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.79× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)97· sector 44
HEALTH (low debt)93· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KGHM Polska Miedz SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KGH
Frequently asked questions
Is KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 156.35 PLN versus a price of 279.80 PLN, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KGH?
Our model-based fair value for KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 156.35 PLN (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 279.80 PLN.
What is the quality score of KGH?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 156.35 PLN (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 141.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 190.49 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the KGHM Polska Miedz SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 156.35 PLN, about 44% lower versus a price of 279.80 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 141.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 190.49 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.5B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does KGHM Polska Miedz SA pay a dividend?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA currently shows a dividend yield of 0.54% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For KGHM Polska Miedz SA it is 156.35 PLN per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 279.80 PLN. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is KGHM Polska Miedz SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, KGH trades above its calculated fair value: price 279.80 PLN, fair value 156.35 PLN, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (279.80 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (156.35 PLN). For KGHM Polska Miedz SA the two are 123.45 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is KGHM Polska Miedz SA worth?
The market values KGHM Polska Miedz SA at about 56.0B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 279.80 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 156.35 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGH?
Our models span a range for KGHM Polska Miedz SA: cautious scenario 141.66 PLN, base 156.35 PLN, optimistic 190.49 PLN per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 279.80 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KGH?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 156.35 PLN is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 17.6 (reported for FY2025: 15.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 12.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of KGH?
The PEG ratio of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 2.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
Balance-sheet figures for KGHM Polska Miedz SA (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 24.2%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGH from its 52-week high?
KGHM Polska Miedz SA trades at 279.80 PLN, about 28% below its 52-week high of 390.32 PLN and 50% above the low of 186.20 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 156.35 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to KGHM Polska Miedz SA?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, Lundin Mining Corporation, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is KGHM Polska Miedz SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 279.80 PLN, calculated fair value 156.35 PLN (−44%), Quality Score 58/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGH calculated?
We run KGHM Polska Miedz SA through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 156.35 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. KGHM Polska Miedz SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 279.80 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 156.35 PLN, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with KGHM Polska Miedz SA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (190.49 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of KGHM Polska Miedz SA
How large is the market capitalisation of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
The market capitalisation of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 56.0B PLN (≈ $14.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 1.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
Earnings per share at KGHM Polska Miedz SA are 43.45 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
The dividend yield of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 0.5% (payout 4.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 3.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
The net margin of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 20.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 24.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
The operating margin of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
Revenue at KGHM Polska Miedz SA is growing +49.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH)?
Earnings per share at KGHM Polska Miedz SA are growing +723% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) generate?
The free cash flow of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is −1.5B PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH) carry?
The net debt of KGHM Polska Miedz SA is 4.7B PLN (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026