Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Luckin Coffee stock $52.64, price $36.85, upside +42.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.24 – $43.03 · fair‑value band $28.73 – $90.94 · the $36.85 price screens below the $52.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Luckin Coffee Inc. offers retail services of freshly brewed drinks, and pre-made food and beverage items in the People's Republic of China.
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It offers hot and iced freshly brewed coffee, such as Americano, Latte; specialty coffee products, such as the fruity americano; and tea products, such as the light milk tea series, as well as SOE coffee products, chinese tea-flavored coffee, and coconut milk latte; and pre-made food and beverage items, such as pastries, sandwiches, water, breads, and snacks.
In addition, the company through Luckin Coffee Instant brand offers instant coffee, coffee concentrate, coffee beans, drip coffee bags, and coffee capsules and complementary coffee accessories, including thermal tumblers, mugs, pour-over kettles, as well as inspirational cups through mobile apps and e-commerce platforms.
It operates pick-up stores, and relax stores under the Luckin brand, as well as Luckin mobile app, Weixin mini-program, and other third-party platforms for third-party payment channels. Further, the company offers technical and consultation services; and manufactures materials for products.
The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Xiamen, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) currently trades at $36.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.64, implying the stock looks roughly 30% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $90.62 per share, and 18 of the 23 models we run sit above the $36.85 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $26.84, and 5 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $28.73 (bear) to $90.94 (bull), the price of $36.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Luckin Coffee reported revenue of 47.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 7.9B CNY in FY2021, a compound +57.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +57.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $9.3B Mid · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 1.41 · EPS (TTM) $1.68 · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 22.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 13.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 43%, LKNCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.73Fair Value $52.64Bull$90.94
Price $36.85 · Upside +42.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+52.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+73.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+319.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+38.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+38.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−97% → 11%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Swift overseas store growth with localized products forms the main strength, while the accounting fraud history remains the central weak point that overshadows business quality.
Main risk: Cotti Coffee and Mixue-backed Lucky Cup could take customers with even lower prices and rapid expansion using similar platform-driven models or stronger supply chains, squeezing Luckin's margins and share in China.
Bull case: Luckin could leverage its digital systems and localized products to differentiate from rivals and expand efficiently into underserved lower-tier or overseas markets.
Bear case: If rivals intensify price pressure and regulatory hurdles block overseas moves, Luckin might face saturated stores in China with eroding margins and stalled international growth.
Luckin Coffee reached its 100th store in Singapore just three years after entry, becoming the second-largest chain there by outlets while serving nearly two million local customers through localized products and digital tools. Most of its 38,000-plus stores remain in China, where the core model was built. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Will the same operational playbook generate more lasting value from overseas adaptation or from deeper dominance in its home market?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+42.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.3× · Pricier than median
P/B3.62× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.11× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Luckin Coffee Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LKNCY
Frequently asked questions
Is Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $52.64 versus a price of $36.85, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LKNCY?
Our model-based fair value for Luckin Coffee is $52.64 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.85.
What is the quality score of LKNCY?
Luckin Coffee has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $52.64 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.73, optimistic scenario $90.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Luckin Coffee stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $52.64, about +43% upside versus a price of $36.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.73, optimistic scenario $90.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
Luckin Coffee reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 55.9B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Luckin Coffee would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +73.9 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LKNCY use?
Our models discount Luckin Coffee at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Luckin Coffee that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Luckin Coffee grew +73.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Luckin Coffee (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.25 %: that much free cash flow Luckin Coffee produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Luckin Coffee it is $52.64 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $36.85. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Luckin Coffee stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, LKNCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $36.85, fair value $52.64, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LKNCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($52.64). For Luckin Coffee the two are $15.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Luckin Coffee worth?
The market values Luckin Coffee at about $9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $36.85; our models calculate a fair value of $52.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LKNCY?
Our models span a range for Luckin Coffee: cautious scenario $28.73, base $52.64, optimistic $90.94 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $36.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LKNCY?
Luckin Coffee trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $52.64 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 2.7. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Luckin Coffee (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 22.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LKNCY from its 52-week high?
Luckin Coffee trades at $36.85, about 9% below its 52-week high of $40.30 and 33% above the low of $27.67 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $52.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Luckin Coffee?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Luckin Coffee stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $36.85, calculated fair value $52.64 (+43%), Quality Score 63/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LKNCY calculated?
We run Luckin Coffee through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $52.64 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Luckin Coffee currently trades 30% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $36.85. Our model-based fair value is $52.64, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Luckin Coffee right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($28.73 to $90.94). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Luckin Coffee
How large is the market capitalisation of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
The market capitalisation of Luckin Coffee is $9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Luckin Coffee is 1.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
Earnings per share at Luckin Coffee are $1.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
The net margin of Luckin Coffee is 7.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Luckin Coffee is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Luckin Coffee is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
The operating margin of Luckin Coffee is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
Revenue at Luckin Coffee is growing +28.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +52.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Luckin Coffee (LKNCY)?
Earnings per share at Luckin Coffee are growing +15.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) carry?
The net debt of Luckin Coffee is 5.0B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026