Luckin Coffee Inc (LKNCY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.7B
Luckin Coffee Inc
LKNCY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $38.05 to $38.23 (+0.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 14% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($24.25 to $46.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $24.25 (bear) to $46.62 (bull), base $38.23. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.24 – $43.03 · fair‑value band $24.25 – $46.62 · the $33.63 price screens below the $38.23 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Luckin Coffee Inc (LKNCY) currently trades at $33.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.23, implying the stock looks roughly 13.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Luckin Coffee Inc generated revenue of $52.4B at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 35.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at $5.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.25 (bear case) to $46.62 (bull case); at $33.63, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 14%, LKNCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($604.29) versus Asset-Based ($42.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Luckin Coffee Inc. offers retail services of freshly brewed drinks, and pre-made food and beverage items in the People's Republic of China.
Full company description
Luckin Coffee Inc. offers retail services of freshly brewed drinks, and pre-made food and beverage items in the People's Republic of China. It offers hot and iced freshly brewed coffee, such as Americano, Latte; specialty coffee products, such as the fruity americano; and tea products, such as the light milk tea series, as well as SOE coffee products, chinese tea-flavored coffee, and coconut milk latte; and pre-made food and beverage items, such as pastries, sandwiches, water, breads, and snacks. In addition, the company through Luckin Coffee Instant brand offers instant coffee, coffee concentrate, coffee beans, drip coffee bags, and coffee capsules and complementary coffee accessories, including thermal tumblers, mugs, pour-over kettles, as well as inspirational cups through mobile apps and e-commerce platforms. It operates pick-up stores, and relax stores under the Luckin brand, as well as Luckin mobile app, Weixin mini-program, and other third-party platforms for third-party payment channels. Further, the company offers technical and consultation services; and manufactures materials for products. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Xiamen, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Luckin Coffee Inc reported revenue of $47.9B in FY2025 versus $7.9B in FY2021, a compound +57.1%/yr. Reported net income was $3.5B in FY2025, compounding +57.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Luckin Coffee Inc (LKNCY) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Surges 29% to RMB15. ...
- Luckin Coffee Reports 28.5% Revenue Growth as Store Network Tops 36,000
- Luckin Coffee Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- Is Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) Stock Undervalued Right Now?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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