Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Monster Beverage Corp stock $41.16, price $48.75, that is 15.6% below the price, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 16% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 69/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +12.5 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 23.1% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Wide moat85/100
Upbeat coverage
Revenue last quarter +20% vs. a year ago.
Mixed vs. peers(7/14)
Insiders sold $15.5M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $41.16 · Overvalued (−15.6%)
⚠ DilutionQuality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Regulatory attempt to ban energy drink label in India🚩Dependence on Coca-Cola distribution🚩Share loss to Celsius and wellness rivals🚩Energy-drink regulation or taxes
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.12 – $49.97 · fair‑value band $25.76 – $53.52 · the $48.75 price screens above the $41.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Monster Beverage Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in development, marketing, sale, and distribution of energy drink beverages and concentrates in the United States and internationally.
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The company operates through four segments: Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands, Alcohol Brands, and Other.
It offers carbonated non-carbonated energy drinks, ready-to-drink iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails, single-serve juices and fruit beverages, ready-to-drink dairy and coffee drinks, energy drinks, sports drinks and single-serve still waters, and sodas that are considered natural, sparkling juices, and flavored sparkling beverages.
In addition, the company provides its products under the Monster Energy, Monster Energy Ultra, Rehab Monster, Monster Energy Nitro, Java Monster, Punch Monster, Juice Monster, Monster Tour Water, Reign Total Body Fuel, Reign Storm, Bang Energy, NOS, Full Throttle, Burn, Mother, Nalu, Ultra Energy, Play and Power Play, Relentless, BPM, BU, Samurai, Live+, Predator, and Fury brands.
Further, it offers craft beers, flavored malt beverages,and hard seltzers under the Jai Alai IPA, Florida Man IPA, Dale's Pale Ale, Wild Basin Hard Seltzers, Dallas Blonde, Deep Ellum IPA, Perrin Brewing Company Black Ale, Hop Rising Double IPA, Wasatch Apricot Hefeweizen, The Beast, and Beast Tea, Blind Lemon, and Blinder Lemon brands.
The company engages in the concentrates and/or beverage bases to authorized bottling, and canning operations.
It sells its products to full-service beverage bottlers/distributors, retail grocery and specialty chains, wholesalers, club stores, mass merchandisers, convenience and gas chains, food service customers, value stores, e-commerce retailers, and the military.
The company was formerly known as Hansen Natural Corporation and changed its name to Monster Beverage Corporation in January 2012. Monster Beverage Corporation was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Corona, California.
Stock analysis
Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) currently trades at $48.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $41.16, 16% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $27.81 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $48.75 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $9.59, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $25.76 (bear) to $53.52 (bull), the price of $48.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Monster Beverage Corp reported revenue of $8.3B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.9B in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $96.4B Large · P/E ratio 45.1 · P/S ratio 10.5 · EPS (TTM) $1.08 · Net margin 23.1% · Return on equity 25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.3% · Operating margin 29.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −16%, MNST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.76Fair Value $41.16Bull$53.52
Price $48.75 · Downside -15.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9173 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$17.40$32.12$73.5274
EPV$10.69$12.52$14.1674
5Y EBITDA Exit$14.26$26.58$43.5373
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$17.40$32.12$73.5274
Owner Earnings$15.73$34.09$73.8170
5Y Revenue Exit$8.71$14.07$21.6571
5Y EBITDA Exit$14.26$26.58$43.5373
5Y P/E Exit$16.18$31.12$49.6369
10Y Revenue Exit$10.96$17.61$27.3766
10Y EBITDA Exit$15.15$27.81$49.3865
10Y P/E Exit$16.53$31.33$55.2561
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$6.61$41.18$57.5063
Lynch FV$11.85$16.92$22.0061
PEG = 1.0$11.85$16.92$22.0057
EPV$10.69$12.52$14.1674
Multiples
P/E Multiple$15.32$20.43$25.5363
P/S Multiple$5.08$6.77$8.4758
P/B Multiple$11.67$15.56$19.4555
EV/EBIT$16.81$22.06$27.3166
EV/EBITDA$13.68$17.88$22.0867
EV/Revenue$5.51$7.42$9.3254
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.22$1.85$2.3155
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$16.93$36.84$74.0073
Rev-Margin DCF$8.71$14.07$21.7171
Economic Profit
Residual Income$6.85$9.59$20.1665
ROIC Compounder$12.90$18.40$26.3371
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$16.95$24.21$31.4867
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $15.5M and none bought.
SaleGuy CarlingCEO, EMEA and OSP2× since Nov 13, 2025: 57,438 shares, avg. $77.80$4.5MJun 10, 2026
SaleMark J HallDirector54,000 shares at $85.81$4.6MMay 14, 2026
SaleEmelie TirreChief Strategy Officer2× since Dec 12, 2025: 128,700 shares, avg. $82.99$10.7MMay 14, 2026
SaleThomas J KellyChief Financial Officer2× since Mar 13, 2026: 15,000 shares, avg. $82.16$1.2MMay 13, 2026
SaleRodney C SacksDirector206,543 shares at $73.58$15.2MDec 12, 2025
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.8% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.5% vs 15.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 29%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.0% a year for the price and +7.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat potential from pricing power and margins stands as the main strength, while thin public data on human capital, innovation and insider activity limits any durability assessment.
Main risk: Deterioration in the relationship with The Coca-Cola Company or its bottlers could disrupt distribution and reduce sales since two bottlers account for about 25 percent of net sales and future performance depends substantially on this relationship.
Bull case: Monster could deepen integration with Coca-Cola bottlers to expand international reach while using its scale to match wellness trends through zero-sugar and functional line extensions.
Bear case: If the Coca-Cola relationship weakens or rivals and regulators gain ground, distribution could fragment and core US convenience-store volumes could decline materially over several years.
Monster Beverage keeps posting strong sales growth in energy drinks while leaning on its Coca-Cola distribution network for international expansion. Yet an Indian court had to step in recently to pause a regulator's attempt to ban the 'energy drink' label on its cans, highlighting ongoing regulatory friction in emerging markets. Does this relief clear the path for smoother global rollout, or will similar hurdles keep testing execution elsewhere?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)23.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)29.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)20.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.05× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $41.16 versus a price of $48.75, about 16% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MNST?
Our model-based fair value for Monster Beverage Corp is $41.16 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $48.75.
What is the quality score of MNST?
Monster Beverage Corp has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $41.16 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.76, optimistic scenario $53.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Monster Beverage Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $41.16, about 16% lower versus a price of $48.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.76, optimistic scenario $53.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
Monster Beverage Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Monster Beverage Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +20.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MNST use?
Our models discount Monster Beverage Corp at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Monster Beverage Corp that is +20.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Monster Beverage Corp grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +20.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Monster Beverage Corp (+20.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow Monster Beverage Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Monster Beverage Corp it is $41.16 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $48.75. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Monster Beverage Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MNST trades above its calculated fair value: price $48.75, fair value $41.16, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MNST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($48.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($41.16). For Monster Beverage Corp the two are $7.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Monster Beverage Corp worth?
The market values Monster Beverage Corp at about $96.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $48.75; our models calculate a fair value of $41.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MNST?
Our models span a range for Monster Beverage Corp: cautious scenario $25.76, base $41.16, optimistic $53.52 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $48.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MNST?
Monster Beverage Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $41.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 11.7, P/S 10.5, EV/EBITDA 32.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MNST?
The PEG ratio of Monster Beverage Corp is 2.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Monster Beverage Corp (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 25.7%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MNST from its 52-week high?
Monster Beverage Corp trades at $48.75, about 2% below its 52-week high of $49.97 and 47% above the low of $33.16 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $41.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Monster Beverage Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Nongfu Spring Co, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Monster Beverage Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $48.75, calculated fair value $41.16 (−16%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MNST calculated?
We run Monster Beverage Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $41.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Monster Beverage Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $48.75. Our model-based fair value is $41.16, about 16% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Monster Beverage Corp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($25.76 to $53.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) come from?
Earnings per share at Monster Beverage Corp grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.4 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Monster Beverage Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
The market capitalisation of Monster Beverage Corp is $96.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Monster Beverage Corp is 10.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
Earnings per share at Monster Beverage Corp are $1.08 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
The net margin of Monster Beverage Corp is 23.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Monster Beverage Corp is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Monster Beverage Corp is 22.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
The operating margin of Monster Beverage Corp is 29.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
Revenue at Monster Beverage Corp is growing +20.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Monster Beverage Corp (MNST)?
Earnings per share at Monster Beverage Corp are growing +18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) hold?
Monster Beverage Corp holds more cash than debt, $2.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026