Philip Morris International Inc (PM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Philip Morris International Inc stock $113, price $202, that is 43.9% below the price, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $68.87 – $211.28 · fair‑value band $67.10 – $153.70 · the $201.50 price screens above the $112.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Philip Morris International Inc. operates as a tobacco company. The company offers cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, e-vapor, and oral nicotine products under the IQOS, VEEV, and ZYN brands; and consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches.
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It also offers wellness products. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) currently trades at $201.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $112.99, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $121.60 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $201.50 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $39.17, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $67.10 (bear) to $153.70 (bull), the price of $201.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Philip Morris International Inc reported revenue of $40.6B in FY2025 versus $31.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $11.3B in FY2025, compounding +50.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $315B Mega · P/E ratio 29.4 · P/S ratio 7.30 · EPS (TTM) $6.85 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6% · Operating margin 41.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −44%, PM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$67.10Fair Value $112.99Bull$153.70
Price $201.50 · Downside -43.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7134 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleStacey KennedyCEO PMI U.S.14,350 shares at $183.13$2.6MFeb 20, 2026
SaleReginaldo DobrowolskiGroup Controller6,000 shares at $183.48$1.1MFeb 20, 2026
SaleFrederic De WildeCEO PMI International20,000 shares at $182.58$3.7MFeb 19, 2026
SaleJacek OlczakGroup CEO PMI, Director80,000 shares at $182.18$14.6MFeb 19, 2026
SaleYann GuerinGroup Chief Legal Officer4,000 shares at $181.69$726,760Feb 19, 2026
SaleEmmanuel BabeauGroup Chief Financial Officer33,800 shares at $181.61$6.1MFeb 19, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.5% vs 5.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 37%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.2% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from brand pricing power and distribution scale is offset by regulatory risks and negative equity signals.
Main risk: Stricter government rules or successful lawsuits on combustible and smoke-free nicotine products could reduce volumes, raise compliance costs or limit marketing and distribution for PMI.
Bull case: PMI could leverage its scale and smoke-free portfolio to secure favorable regulatory pathways and expand market share as consumers shift away from combustibles.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory tightening and litigation could accelerate volume declines across categories and constrain the transition to higher-margin smoke-free offerings.
Philip Morris reached over 40 percent smoke-free revenue last quarter while cigarette pricing still drove most top-line gains. At the same time heavier U.S. spending on ZYN, including larger cans at the same price, is compressing near-term margins amid competition. Will these investments deliver lasting share gains before the traditional business loses steam?
Compare Philip Morris International Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 30 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets16.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)24.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)41.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.4× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Philip Morris International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PM
Frequently asked questions
Is Philip Morris International Inc (PM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $112.99 versus a price of $201.50, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PM?
Our model-based fair value for Philip Morris International Inc is $112.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $201.50.
What is the quality score of PM?
Philip Morris International Inc has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $112.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $67.10, optimistic scenario $153.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Philip Morris International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $112.99, about 44% lower versus a price of $201.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $67.10, optimistic scenario $153.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Philip Morris International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $43.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Philip Morris International Inc pay a dividend?
Philip Morris International Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.98% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Philip Morris International Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PM use?
Our models discount Philip Morris International Inc at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Philip Morris International Inc that is +12.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Philip Morris International Inc (PM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Philip Morris International Inc grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +12.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Philip Morris International Inc (PM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Philip Morris International Inc (+12.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.39 %: that much free cash flow Philip Morris International Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Philip Morris International Inc it is $112.99 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $201.50. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Philip Morris International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PM trades above its calculated fair value: price $201.50, fair value $112.99, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($201.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($112.99). For Philip Morris International Inc the two are $88.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Philip Morris International Inc worth?
The market values Philip Morris International Inc at about $315B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $201.50; our models calculate a fair value of $112.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PM?
Our models span a range for Philip Morris International Inc: cautious scenario $67.10, base $112.99, optimistic $153.70 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $201.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PM?
Philip Morris International Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $112.99 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 26.1 (reported for FY2025: 27.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 16.4. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PM?
The PEG ratio of Philip Morris International Inc is 2.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Philip Morris International Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PM from its 52-week high?
Philip Morris International Inc trades at $201.50, about 5% below its 52-week high of $211.28 and 40% above the low of $143.98 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $112.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Philip Morris International Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Altria Group, British American Tobacco p.l.c., KT&G Corporation, Smoore International Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Philip Morris International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $201.50, calculated fair value $112.99 (−44%), Quality Score 79/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PM calculated?
We run Philip Morris International Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $112.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Philip Morris International Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $201.50. Our model-based fair value is $112.99, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Philip Morris International Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($153.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($67.10 to $153.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Philip Morris International Inc (PM) come from?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris International Inc grew +2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.5 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Philip Morris International Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The market capitalisation of Philip Morris International Inc is $315B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Philip Morris International Inc is 7.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris International Inc are $6.85 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The dividend yield of Philip Morris International Inc is 3.0% (payout 82.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 87.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The net margin of Philip Morris International Inc is 24.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Philip Morris International Inc is 17.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
The operating margin of Philip Morris International Inc is 41.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Revenue at Philip Morris International Inc is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Philip Morris International Inc (PM)?
Earnings per share at Philip Morris International Inc are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Philip Morris International Inc (PM) carry?
The net debt of Philip Morris International Inc is $44.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026